Finding the Top Week 7 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Kimani Vidal, Harold Fannin Jr. and More

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

This is our second straight week with a Chargers running back at the top of the list. Last week, it was Hassan Haskins; this week, it's Kimani Vidal. After Vidal, the rest of this week's top names in EWI aren't too inspiring. As it usually is by this point in the season, the fantasy football waiver wire is bare. 

In fact, we only have four names above my usual threshold of 20% EWI. As a result, I'll be covering players all the way down to 15% EWI. However, this change means there will be more names than usual, so each player's individual blurb will be shorter. Let's get into it.

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RB Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers (49% EWI)

I'm proud to say that I mentioned Vidal as a clear omission from the EWI leaders list in last week's article.

The second-year player served as the Chargers' clear RB1 in Week 6, recording 18 carries and four targets on a 72% snap share. After that performance, it's a no-brainer: he is an absolute must-add in any leagues where he is still available and deserves to be this week's clear EWI leader. 

TE Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns (25% EWI)

Last year's FBS leader in receiving yards, Fannin has flashed potential to start his NFL career, but his usage has been capped by the presence of veteran TE David Njoku. Njoku suffered a knee injury against the Dolphins on Sunday, allowing Fannin to set new career highs with 10 targets on a 74% route participation rate.

However, Njoku's injury is reportedly not too serious. He could return without missing a single game, and doesn't seem to be a candidate for IR at this time. With that in mind, I'm not sure Fannin deserves to be second in EWI for this week. He's worth adding in deeper leagues, on the off chance this Njoku injury is the catalyst to a more sustainable breakout. But unless we get a new report on the veteran TE's status, the rookie is unlikely to be a long-term fantasy-relevant option at this point.

QB Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers (22% EWI)

I honestly have no idea what Rodgers has done to deserve a 22% EWI heading into Week 7. It's not like he had a huge Week 6 performance, with just 17.5 points. For the season, he is just the QB23 with 16.2 points per game.

Perhaps this EWI is due to his excellent matchup with the Bengals this Thursday night, but he's still more of a high-end QB2 than a true QB1 this week. In 1-QB leagues, Rodgers is not someone I recommend adding.

RB Bam Knight, Arizona Cardinals (22% EWI)

He has the same 22% EWI as Rodgers, but Knight is a much more intriguing option. It was close, but he was the Cardinals' lead back in Week 6, ahead of Michael Carter.

Carter was the lead receiving back, but Knight led in snaps and carries en route to a solid 11.9 half-PPR points. He looks like just a weekly flex option at this point, but Bam should still be rostered in all formats as Arizona's RB1 (for now). 

WR Kayshon Boutte, New England Patriots (19% EWI)

With Drake Maye ascending, Boutte's limited role in New England's offense is more valuable than it would otherwise be. But it's still limited: he has seen just a 12% target share on a 68% route participation rate so far this season.

Despite being the team's primary deep threat, even his 27% air yards share is nothing to write home about. Boutte is a boom/bust flex option at this point, nothing more. Whether that makes him worth adding depends on your specific league and roster circumstances.

WR Wan'Dale Robinson, New York Giants (19% EWI)

Unlike Boutte, Robinson is someone I would recommend adding in all leagues. In fact, that's more or less what this 19% EWI also represents, given that he is already rostered in 79% of leagues surveyed by the Fantasy Assistant.

With that in mind, don't let the low total EWI fool you. If Robinson is still available in your league, you'll have to pay up to get him. He's probably worth it, as the top target for an offense that suddenly has life with Jaxson Dart under center.

QB J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (16% EWI)

McCarthy is unsurprisingly trending back up as he returned to practice yesterday. However, I wouldn't rush to add the sophomore QB just yet.

For one, he hasn't yet been confirmed as the Vikings' Week 7 starter. For another, he wasn't exactly lighting things up prior to suffering an ankle injury. His Week 1 fantasy performance was solid … Week 2, not so much. In 1-QB formats, it's not worth adding McCarthy until he returns to the field and shows some semblance of fantasy viability.

WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (16% EWI)

Downs had his best game of the season on Sunday, finishing with 13.2 half-PPR points. But I don't think that performance merits this non-negligible level of waiver interest. The Colts' slot WR is still averaging just 6.8 half-PPR points per game. 

Even with Alec Pierce missing time, he has averaged a miserable 59% route participation rate in Indianapolis' offense, including a  57% mark in Week 5. His 18% target share and 17% air yards share are both also mediocre. In deep PPR leagues, Downs has flex appeal. Otherwise, his ceiling isn't high enough to merit rostering.

WR Kendrick Bourne, San Francisco 49ers (16% EWI)

As I discussed in this week's wide receiver waiver wire breakdown, Bourne is worth adding.

His long-term outlook as the 49ers' offense gets healthy is hazy, but we just can't ignore his back-to-back games of exactly 142 yards. I also wouldn't be surprised if the sheer explosivenes of his recent performances results in Bourne actually coming in above this EWI number. 

WR Marquise Brown, Kansas City Chiefs (16% EWI)

If you haven't already added Brown, I don't recommend jumping on the bandwagon now.

With Xavier Worthy playing and Rashee Rice due back this week, Brown's role in the Chiefs' offense is only going to trend in the wrong direction. Even his big game on Sunday night came on just a 53% route participation rate and a 13% target share. If this number is accurate, let your leaguemates chase Hollywood on waivers while you target more sustainable options.

WR Sterling Shepard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (16% EWI)

The Buccaneers are racking up injuries to wide receivers, as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka were all sidelined to finish their Week 6 matchup. With that in mind, Shepard is a solid pickup for managers in need of wide receiver help.

However, he wouldn't be my preferred option among Tampa Bay's backup receivers: rookie Tez Johnson ran more routes and saw just as many targets as Shepard on Sunday. He doesn't appear among the EWI leaders, so he may be slipping under the radar, but he is the best add in this banged-up Buccaneers WR room.