Finding the Top Week 6 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Hassan Haskins, Mason Taylor and More

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

The fantasy football waiver wire is truly in midseason form. The top two names are injury-related running backs, and nearly every other name is either already widely rostered, uninspiring, or both. However, that doesn't mean it isn't important to break them down. If anything, it's more important to nail your waiver moves when options are thin. With that in mind, let's get started.

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RB Hassan Haskins, Los Angeles Chargers (54% EWI)

I'm not surprised to see Haskins this high. With Omarion Hampton on IR, everyone will be rushing to find the Chargers' new RB1. What I am surprised by is that he isn't closely followed by fellow LA backup RB Kimani Vidal.

With Hampton going down early in Week 5, Haskins and Vidal both finished the game with exactly 14 snaps. Haskins did see one more carry (five to four) and run two more routes (seven to five), but that's not exactly conclusive evidence that he is the top option. There's also a real chance that neither of these guys is the right answer, as the Chargers could easily add a veteran off the couch to be their new RB1 (Gus Edwards, anyone?).

This all isn't to say you shouldn't add Haskins. He absolutely deserves this high EWI. But Vidal does, too. If this number is anything to go by, the second-year player is flying under the radar. Make sure you include him, as well as Haskins, near the top of your waiver moves this week. 

RB Michael Carter, Arizona Cardinals (29% EWI)

Carter should definitely be added before Haskins (or Vidal). While we still don't know who will be the Chargers' RB1 while Hampton is out, Carter was the Cardinals' clear lead back on Sunday. He led the team with a 60% snap share, 18 attempts, and five targets. Bam Knight saw a few carries, including a goal-line TD, and Emari Demercado played on passing downs. 

But Carter was the clear RB1, which makes him an absolute must-add in all formats. The only reason his EWI isn't higher is that it essentially can't be. According to the Fantasy Assistant, he is already rostered in 68% of leagues, so even this 29% of EWI will result in a 97% rostership percentage. If your league is one of the 32% where Carter is still available, he should be your top add this week. 

TE Mason Taylor, New York Jets (25% EWI)

Here we get to our EWI winner in the non-handcuff division for Week 6. The second-round rookie tight end has had a solid role in the Jets' offense in recent weeks, including a 26% target share in each of their last two games. On Sunday, that target share converted to a whopping 12 targets, of which he caught nine for 67 yards. 

Given that the Jets' WR2 is Josh Reynolds, it makes sense that Taylor could emerge as their second pass-catcher behind Garrett Wilson. Normally, a tight end who is a top-two target on their offense is fantasy gold.

The issue here is that being a top target for Justin Fields isn't the same as being a top target for most QBs. Fields is incredibly low-volume as a passer (32nd in the league in attempts per game) and not particularly efficient (17th in yards per attempt). 

Although playing with Fields caps Taylor's ceiling, he's still an exciting young tight end with a clear role in this offense. If you're looking for TE help, he is absolutely worth adding. Just be prepared to spend up, given he ranks third in EWI for the week.

TE Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins (21% EWI)

Waller is to Taylor as Carter is to Haskins. He's the better pickup at the position, but his EWI is capped due to his already high roster rate (already at 81%, Waller will reach the maximum 99% if this 21% EWI is accurate). But if he is available in your league, the former retiree is definitely worth adding.

In his two games this season, Waller has scored 16.1 and 16.3 half-PPR points. No other TE is averaging more than even 13.1 points per game. Of course, his numbers are inflated by a high TD rate (three TDs in those two weeks), but Waller clearly has a valuable role in Miami's offense, especially with Tyreek Hill now done for the year.

We could legitimately be looking at this year's Jonnu Smith, so don't hesitate to get him on your roster. 

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders (20% EWI)

Sometimes, we get a pickup so obvious that the EWI model can't handle it. That is the case for Jacory-Croskey Merritt after his 26-point breakout game on Sunday. The rookie is already rostered in 88% of leagues, so this EWI implies that he will be 108% rostered by tomorrow morning. 

Obviously, that's not possible, but it's an excellent illustration of how to approach JCM on waivers this week. If he's available in your league, it might literally be worth blowing your entire FAAB budget to get him. He has officially arrived as the Commanders' RB1 and should be a weekly starter for the rest of the season.