Are the Colts Contenders? Real-Life and Fantasy Football Investigation Into Daniel Jones, Tyler Warren, and More

The Indianapolis Colts started 2-0 with two very different wins. In Week 1, they dominated the Miami Dolphins from the beginning, scoring on every drive and taking a 20-0 halftime lead on the way to a 33-8 victory.

It was easy to think that the game said more about Miami than Indianapolis; the Dolphins were just really bad. Well, that might be true, but the Colts also proved they are good in Week 2, beating the Denver Broncos 29-28. The offense was again effective, scoring on seven of nine drives (not counting an end-of-half, one-play drive).

The Broncos had one of the best defenses in football last season and looked really good in Week 1, so it was shocking to see Daniel Jones and the Colts have such a good day against Denver. It forces the question: are the Colts for real?

That's a pertinent question from both a real-life and fantasy football standpoint, and Indianapolis players have peppered the top of the fantasy scoreboards along with lighting up those in the stadium. Let's look at Indianapolis' actual performance and that of their fantasy players so far to see if the early success is sustainable.

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Will the Colts Make the Playoffs?

It helps to start 2-0, especially with victories over two AFC foes with whom they could fight for the wild card; Week 2's win could eventually put them into the playoffs over the Broncos. While Miami might be bad, Denver seems like a true postseason contender who could do damage with a stout defense.

Every other team in the AFC South has at least one loss, with the Jaguars starting 1-1 and the Texans and Titans 0-2. The end of Indy's schedule is loaded with games against division opponents, including the final two weeks and four of the last six. The division isn't likely to be won or lost until that time.

And yet, with two wins already banked, the Colts sit in good position in the wild card hunt as well. Since 2020 (when the NFL switched to 14 playoff teams), the average wild card team had about 10 wins. Indianapolis only needs to go 8-7 the rest of the way to get there. It's not easy, but it's a lot easier than having to go 10-7 from scratch.

You'll hear a lot this week about how since 1970, over 64% of teams to start 2-0 have made the playoffs. The opposite side will also come up: only about 10% of teams starting 0-2 have made the postseason in that time. The positive side favors the Colts, with a good start on both the division title and wild card race. The odds are in Indy's favor.

Will Daniel Jones Keep Starring?

This is of major importance in the fantasy football world. When Jones tied for QB2 in Week 1, it was again fair to wonder if it was more about Jones having an outburst or an overmatched Dolphins' defense. He had 272 passing yards on 9.4 per attempt in that first game, throwing a touchdown and no interceptions and adding 26 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.

The Week 2 numbers are just as impressive: 316 yards on 9.3 per attempt with another touchdown and no interceptions. While Jones had only two rushing yards, he did run in another touchdown, a fantasy boon. He was QB7 this week. Only Lamar Jackson has more total fantasy points among quarterbacks.

After being an intriguing story for one week, Jones is now to the point where he should be on a roster in essentially every league. That doesn't mean he's a weekly starter yet, but the ceiling is high enough that anyone without a weekly starter should be looking to pick up the QB.

A fantasy owner with Jackson or Josh Allen doesn't need to add Jones, as that bench spot can better be used on a running back or wide receiver, but the owner who is relying on Baker Mayfield or just lost Joe Burrow might find a near-weekly option in the Colts' quarterback.

Don't bank on Jones being the answer to your prayers yet, but there is cautious optimism that at least average fantasy production can be a weekly thing.

Which Pass Catchers are Benefitting?

Rookie tight end Tyler Warren leads the team with 16 targets, 11 receptions, and 155 yards. There was buzz that he could be an instant receiving threat, much like Brock Bowers last season, and we're seeing it in real time. Warren is a must-start player two weeks in.

Michael Pittman Jr. has otherwise been the top receiver, catching 10 of 13 targets for 120 yards and a touchdown. He is a WR2/3 type at his current production, probably settling into the lower area of that range. Pittman should get more consistent work with Jones under center than he did with Anthony Richardson Sr.

Josh Downs isn't far behind in volume: 11 targets, eight catches, and 63 yards. He isn't gaining a lot of yards on his catches, but Downs has a little PPR intrigue in deep leagues because he is getting looks. For most owners, Downs is just a name to watch for now.

Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell are the last pass catchers of note. The latter doesn't get enough volume to make a fantasy impact. Pierce had a decent Week 2 (four catches, 68 yards), but he only had one reception in Week 1 (though it did go for 36 yards). Pierce is only a deep-league option and doesn't have enough consistency around some big plays.

Any Notes on Jonathan Taylor?

Taylor has 313 total yards, including 77 and a touchdown on five catches. He is both a standard and PPR darling and must-start player. I named him as a player who could struggle in Week 2 because of the tough matchup with the Broncos, but Taylor made that look silly, running for 165 yards.

Start Taylor every week the way you were going to already; it's nice to have an easy call.

Conclusion

The Colts look like a real playoff contender. They have the best point differential in the league, and while a lot of that comes from a Week 1 shellacking, they just won a hard-fought game over a trendy pick in the AFC West. I'm not ready to call them a Super Bowl contender, but they have a good chance at the postseason.

In the fantasy world, Jones has proved himself worthy of a roster spot, either as part of a streaming rotation or to allow for trade flexibility. His performances have been good by every measure, and while he will regress throwing the ball, Jones will still probably have rushing production, keeping up his fantasy score.

He isn't a weekly starter yet and shouldn't be blindly put into lineups, but excelling against Denver in Week 2 is a step in that direction; let's see it a few more times. Jones has another tougher matchup in Week 3, as the Colts visit Tennessee (though the Titans just got handled by Matthew Stafford in Week 2).

Warren is a must-start fantasy player. He will likely see nice volume in every game, making him a consistent option, particularly in PPR. Taylor is in the same boat as a weekly starter who shouldn't be questioned regardless of matchup.

Among the other pass catchers, Pittman warrants consideration every week as the team's WR1; he's not an automatic start, but there aren't many weeks where you'll bench him (though Week 2 against the Broncos may have been one of those weeks). The others are below the level of fantasy contributor for now, though Downs could be under deep-league PPR consideration.