Monday Night Start Decisions | Brock Purdy or Aaron Rodgers, Brandon Aiyuk, Tyler Conklin and More

There’s just one NFL game remaining on the week 1 schedule, and it’s a fun matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets.

Let’s break down the game at each fantasy position and then rank the available options in an effort to help you if you still need starting lineup guidance.

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Quarterback Fantasy Outlooks

Brock Purdy leads the Niners, while Aaron Rodgers guides the Jets.

Purdy is coming off a pretty strong 2023 season in which he silenced a lot of doubters. Rodgers, on the other hand, didn’t even finish the first offensive possession before leaving with a season-ending injury.

It may seem like a no brainer decision if you happen to have these two quarterbacks on your fantasy team, but it’s closer than you think.

Purdy has the better offense around him for sure, but he’s also going up against a Jets’ defense that allowed the fewest fantasy points per week in 2023. The Niners’ defense is no joke either after allowing the sixth-least amount of fantasy points to QBs last season.

The Jets are healthier to open the season, and Rodgers should have the team’s preferred starting lineup around him. Meanwhile, the Niners’ defense will be without a couple backups (Yetur Gross-Matos and Dee Winters) and probably a starter (Talanoa Hufanga).

San Fran had Christian McCaffrey listed as questionable, but he expects to play and take on a normal workload, so Purdy should have his offensive playmakers all around him.

UPDATE: McCaffrey has been ruled out for Monday's game.

Our numbers show Purdy starting over Rodgers 62% of the time. Rodgers is being started over Purdy nearly 10% of the time.

I actually think the numbers should be a little closer than that, but I understand trusting Purdy over Rodgers. They were ranked near each other in the projections too.

If I had these two quarterbacks on my fantasy team and hadn’t started anyone yet, I’d be very tempted to start Rodgers, but would eventually settle on Purdy. He’s set up for more success with the studs around him, and those guys might be the difference in what I envision to be a defensive battle.

Running Back Fantasy Outlooks

I trust that McCaffrey is going to play and not be too limited. He’s been my No. 1 fantasy guy all preseason, and I’m not backing off that in week 1.

New York actually allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to backs in 2023, so this is actually a favorable matchup for McCaffrey. Expect the team to get him involved early, and if the run isn’t working, he can also be utilized as a pass catcher, so there’s a chance he finishes as the top PPR fantasy back in week 1 if he can score a couple times.

UPDATE: With McCaffrey out, Jordan Mason will start. Mason isn't McCaffrey, but he should get a good amount of touches tonight. Patrick Taylor and Isaac Guerendo are also on the active roster and could factor in a bit.

Breece Hall should also be heavily involved all night on the Jets’ offense, although his matchup is much stiffer. 

The Niners’ D allowed the third-least amount of fantasy points to opposing backs in 2023. The unit allowed the second-fewest rushing yards, but eighth-most receiving yards, and because Hall can do both things, I’m not all that worried about him.

Both these guys need to be starting this week, but I like McCaffrey more than Hall by a decent amount. 

UPDATE: With Mason replacing McCaffrey, Hall is easily the best fantasy back in this game. Mason then slots in as the second-best back.

Jordan Mason is the Niners’ top backup, while Braelon Allen is the Jets’ No. 2. Unless one of these guys punches in a short touchdown, breaks a big play or has the starter go down with an injury, I don’t anticipate big fantasy RB showings from anyone other than McCaffrey and Hall. 

Avoid them in fantasy if you can. I do like Allen slightly over Mason if this game remains tight though.

Wide Receiver Fantasy Outlooks

There’s some good fantasy pass catchers in this contest.

San Francisco has Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel Sr. leading the charge from the wide receiver position. Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams are the top two for New York. These are the only standard league options in this game.

The Jets’ defense was the best in slowing opposing fantasy WRs in 2023. The Niners were surprisingly below average, and likely down a safety tonight, things won’t be any easier.

Samuel is actually the top-ranked of the quartet in the projections and I think that’s fair because of how the team gets him involved in the running game. With McCaffrey coming off his injury and Aiyuk still getting up to speed, I like Samuel as the top WR option in this game.

Wilson is the next receiver on the projections, but projected for more PPR points than Samuel. He should be the go-to guy for Rodgers, and probably has the best chance to score among the wideouts in this game. I still like Samuel a touch more, but you can’t go wrong with Wilson either.

Aiyuk is projected for 13 PPR fantasy points, while Williams is at seven points. I think Aiyuk could play a few less snaps than usual, but even with that and the tough matchup in mind, I’m starting Aiyuk. He’s just too talented to not play.

Williams is only a starting option in deeper leagues for me. I think there’s a chance he could shine with so much attention on Hall and Wilson, but his injury history makes it so difficult to trust him.

Some backup options in New York are Allen Lazard, Xavier Gipson, Malachi Corley and Irvin Charles, while San Fran has Jauan Jennings, Chris Conley, Jacob Cowing and Ronnie Bell.

A couple of these guys could have a big play to post a decent fantasy score, but none are worth starting in any league type. They are names to keep in mind in case one of the top two WRs for either team go down, but that’s it.

Tight End Fantasy Outlooks

George Kittle and Tyler Conklin are the top tight ends for this contest.

Kittle is one of the better tight ends in real life and fantasy. He’s also got the more favorable fantasy matchup tonight. New York was in the bottom half of the league in terms of allowing fantasy points to opposing TEs.

Conklin has less offensive weapons around him, but a rough matchup on paper. The Niners’ defense allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to TEs in 2023.

Kittle is definitely the better fantasy TE for tonight’s game. I think Conklin will be a streaming option for several weeks this season, but until I see a good week, I won’t trust him. Only play Conklin in deeper leagues, but don’t expect too much.

Kicker and D/ST Fantasy Outlooks

Jake Moody and Greg Zuerlein are the kickers in this game.

Both could be decent fantasy options if the offenses move the ball a bit but stall out, but there were definitely better starting options earlier in the week.

Moody is the kicker projected for more points, and I’d agree with that because I expect the Niners to move the ball a touch better. I’d take Moody over Zuerlein tonight.

Both defenses should be solid options for the night, but I definitely trust the Niners’ defense more. San Fran just has too many offensive weapons - New York could still shut them down, but I feel much more confident in the Niners’ defense tonight.

San Fran is projected for eight D/ST fantasy points, while New York is at five. I expect both to exceed those marks with takeaways and sacks.

Flex Starting Order

We already went over the best starting options at RB, WR and TE, but for those with just flex starting spots available, let me offer up some opinions on the best guys overall.

Give me McCaffrey first, followed by Hall. Workhorse backs are much more safe plays to me than a wideout or tight end, and these two guys are talented enough to overcome stout defenses.

I’d roll with Samuel next, then Wilson. It’s a tossup between Kittle and Aiyuk next for me, but I’ll lean with Aiyuk because I’m expecting a top-10 PPR finish from him this season. 

I have Williams over Conklin for the final options among the players who could be considered in standard leagues (although both should only be starting in deeper leagues).

As for how I’d rank the deep (deep) league options, here’s my stab at things: Gipson, Jennings, Lazard, Conley, Allen, Mason, Bell, Corley, Cowing, Charles.

UPDATE: With Mason now the starting running back, Hall is now the best flex option for tonight's game. Mason moves up a good deal, slotting in behind Kittle and Aiyuk and before Williams and Conklin. I'd still avoid Guerendo and Taylor if possible, mostly because we don't know who the backup to Mason will be.

Best of luck making your final week 1 start decisions!