Quarterbacks Struggled to Throw in Week 1: Is this a Sign of Things to Come? | Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, Justin Fields and More
Half of the league's quarterbacks put up pedestrian-or-worse stats in Week 1. There is recent history showing a brighter future, though.
The NFL is a passing league. Teams gain twice as many passing yards as rushing yards. Even mediocre quarterbacks can put up big stats; Hall of Fame voters will have to decide how to handle big passers who never won big, like Matt Ryan and Phillip Rivers.
Yet Week 1 saw half the league’s quarterbacks throw for less than 200 yards, many of them doing so inefficiently rather than just with low volume. Look at this:
- Jacoby Brissett, 121 yards, 5 yards per attempt
- Joe Burrow, 164 yards, 5.7 per attempt
- Kirk Cousins, 155 yards, 6 per attempt
- Justin Herbert, 144 yards, 5.5 per attempt
- Daniel Jones, 186 yards, 4.4 per attempt
- Will Levis, 127 yards, 4 per attempt
- Kyler Murray, 162 yards, 5.2 per attempt
- Bo Nix, 138 yards, 3.3 per attempt
- Dak Prescott, 179 yards, 5.6 per attempt
- Deshaun Watson, 169 yards, 3.8 per attempt
- Caleb Williams, 93 yards, 3.2 per attempt
- Bryce Young, 161 yards, 5.4 per attempt
- Justin Fields, 156 yards, 6.8 per attempt
- Geno Smith, 171 yards, 6.8 per attempt
- Jayden Daniels, 184 yards, 7.7 per attempt
- Trevor Lawrence, 162 yards, 7.7 per attempt
That’s brutal. The last four guys were a little better, getting near or over seven yards per attempt, but everyone else had something between a bad performance and a game-losing disaster (oh, Will Levis).
A few guys added rushing work that helped; Young, Smith and others ran for touchdowns, and Daniels had a breakout performance with 88 rushing yards and two touchdowns. This is supposed to be a PASSING league, though. Is something changing?
This is probably just a one-week aberration, and things will smooth out as guys get more time on the field together. In Week 1 last season, 11 quarterbacks were under 200 passing yards with no more than 6 yards per attempt:
- Joe Burrow 82/2.6
- Joshua Dobbs 132/4.4
- Jalen Hurts 170/5.2
- Daniel Jones 104/3.7
- Baker Mayfield 173/5.1
- Dak Prescott 143/6
- Geno Smith 112/4.3
- Ryan Tannehill 198/5.8
- Deshaun Watson 154/5.3
- Russell Wilson 177/5.2
- Bryce Young 146/3.8
A few others with low yardage but higher per-attempt numbers just missed the cut; they would make this list close to the size of the one at the beginning of the article. Week 1 of 2023 was similar to this year with both low yardage and low efficiency, but randomly selecting other weeks of last season produced only a handful of guys each week below the 200-yard, 6-yard-per-attempt barriers.
This is likely just a bad week for a group of guys trying to come together in a short span of time. New players going into new schemes of new offensive coordinators who might be calling new plays. New can be good, but it takes time to become routine. Offenses will likely find their way and produce more passing stats and fantasy points moving forward.
Fantasy Implications
This requires its own article, but running quarterbacks are hacks. I mentioned above that a few guys saved their fantasy days by showing off dynamic running. When Cousins throws for 155 yards, he scores 6.2 fantasy points; when Fields throws for 156 on the same day, he scores 12 fantasy points because of nearly 60 rushing yards (that all happened on Sunday).
I’ve championed going after running quarterbacks in fantasy for several years, believing them to have both a higher floor and ceiling because of sustained points. These guys don’t all get five or more fantasy points from rushing every week, but it’s a regular occurrence for Lamar Jackson and some of the best rushers at the position. Those guys start with five points every week rather than beginning at zero.
If lower passing production were to continue league-wide, it would make running backs (and running QBs) even more important. RB might already be the most important position in fantasy football (some say wide receiver, but I disagree), but less passing means less fantasy points for quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends.
Again, this is an unlikely outcome. Passing has been on the way up for years, and there’s no reason for teams to change when they’ve found the most efficient way to move the football. When fantasy options are slim and you’re in danger of having to start a 200-yard, 6-yard-per-attempt guy, though, look for a running quarterback. The weak passing stats hurt, but they are mitigated by rushing production.
