Super Bowl Prop Bet FantasySP Expert Tips
We look at some of the things you can bet on this weekend outside of the game, along with a few score- and player-related wagers.
It’s Super Bowl week, so get ready for coverage to ramp up to the point that you won’t be hearing much else until after Sunday. This game has the highest rating of any program basically every year, so the related content is sure to reach the same levels.
The experts at FantasySP got together to have a little fun and go through the props related to the big game. There are many sites with different oddball bets, but here is an example of some of the things you can wager on.
Morgan Rode, Mark Morales-Smith and Ted Chmyz joined yours truly, Daniel Hepner, to look through the props and choose some of our favorites.
What is your favorite Super Bowl prop related to player performance?
Mark: I like Rashee Rice to go over 66.5 receiving yards. That could change as more props get added.
Morgan: A Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown is good, but I'll give you a less popular pick and say Travis Kelce goes over 70.5 receiving yards. He's topped that mark in all three postseason games and will be heavily involved again in the Super Bowl.
Ted: I'm going with Brock Purdy over 10.5 rushing yards. We've seen QBs increase their rushing and scrambling throughout the playoffs, and Purdy is no exception. In four career playoff games, he is averaging 4.5 rush attempts for 21.5 yards. That is slightly skewed by an outlier 48 yards last week, but he has still rushed for 11+ yards in three of the four, including both this year.
Daniel: Purdy over 0.5 interceptions. He’s been great this season, but this is more about the Kansas City defense than anything else. They were one of the best pass defenses in the league, not allowing a 300-yard passer all season. Purdy has been susceptible to turnovers at times, especially when his team has struggled to move the ball.
How about with respect to the score, whether that's the total or for one of the teams?
Morgan: As I already mentioned, the San Fran defense has been shaky this postseason, so I like this to be a big offensive day for the Chiefs. That 24-point mark really seems perfect for both teams, but I like the Chiefs to win, so I'll settle on a final score of 27-24 KC.
Mark: I like the under in this game. The Chiefs offense has been better but isn't up to their previous standard, and their defense isn't good, it's great. Currently, the total is set at 47.5.
Daniel: I’m going to agree with Mark and say this game goes under that number. Both teams were top 10 in offensive DVOA on the season but also in the top 10 in defensive DVOA; so, which side of the ball is going to fold? I’ll say the offenses struggle to move efficiently and this game finishes with a score like 24-20.
The most important part: Which novelty prop stands out as a favorite?
Ted: In a battle between two red teams in the Chiefs and 49ers, I want to bet on the Gatorade bath being red for the very first time in history. You can get this pick at +700, with pink thrown in as a bonus.
Mark: There are two bets I always make: A kicker will hit the goal posts and an octopus will occur. An octopus is when a player scores a TD then scores the two-point conversion immediately after. Both hit last year.
Morgan: Many would think red Gatorade is most likely, as it matches the team's colors, but the last time the Chiefs topped the 49ers in the Super Bowl, orange Gatorade was dumped on Andy Reid. I like to think he's a superstitious guy and tries to repeat history, so give me orange again!
Daniel: The Chappelle’s Show skits with Dave Chappelle acting out “a day in the life of Lil John” were formative in my teens, so I am really hoping to see the rapper himself during the halftime show. Odds at -102? YEAH!
Which is your least favorite novelty prop, and why does it include Taylor Swift? (Just kidding, it doesn't have to involve Taylor Swift.)
Mark: I want nothing to do with the scorigami prop. It's too hard to follow so it isn't fun. A scorigami is a final score that has never happened. You know it's a long shot because the odds are +2000 yes and -10000 no.
Morgan: The prop on whether she'll be shown during the anthem, which seems like a slam dunk to happen - at least to me.
Ted: As a resident of New York state, my least favorite novelty prop is all of them: New York's laws prohibit gambling on anything that isn't strictly a sporting market. This even extends to awards — no Super Bowl MVP bets or even on the NFL Draft. I know this isn't quite in the spirit of the question, but I'm just sad about it. (For the record, I'm pro-Swift).
Daniel: Will Kelce propose to Swift? Who gives a #$%&@, and no, I’m guessing he won’t (at -3000 vs +1060 that he will).
What advice do you have about betting on the Super Bowl for those who don't bet much or at all but want to get involved in the big game?
Ted: Never bet more than you're comfortable losing. As soon as you deposit money in a book, you should consider that money spent. I recommend limiting the number of bets you place, especially on things like player props and parlays. Pick a team and bet the moneyline so you have a rooting interest, then scatter in some of your favorite funky novelties (tails never fails).
Morgan: Just have fun with it. We're talking about one single game in which anything can happen at any time. Try not to get too bogged down in past numbers or season averages and just trust your gut.
Mark: Bet the novelty props. They are a ton of fun, and it only happens once a year. Plus, they start at the coin toss and continue through the Gatorade dump. Some sites even let you bet on the National Anthem and other things outside the game.
Daniel: I agree with everyone: Have fun, be involved, and assume all money you bet is lost until further notice. You’re not going to get rich with these bets; just enjoy the day and do what you’re comfortable with while not ruining your viewing experience.
#super-bowl
