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Best Fantasy Football Trades To Make Week 11
Buy Low On
Unfortunately, this isn't the first time I've suggested buying low on Tony Pollard. If you bought Pollard when I suggested it in Week 6, I can only say I'm sorry. Pollard's slow start has continued into a slow season. The fringe first-round pick in fantasy draft season now ranks as the RB23 in Half-PPR, which is even worse than it sounds given the state of the RB position. Despite ranking second in the league in goal-line carries, Pollard hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1, and he has now had three straight weeks of under 10 fantasy points. Making matters worse, Pollard, who has been shockingly inefficient this year after being one of the most explosive and efficient backs in the league over the last few seasons, is now seeing backup 's role slowly grow each week; the third-year player simply looks better with the ball in his hands.
So, with all this in mind, how could I possibly be recommending you trade for Tony Pollard? It's possible I'm just deluding myself (I have Pollard in far too many leagues), but I still think there is hope he regains some value down the stretch. After all, did you just hear me say that he has zero touchdowns since Week 1 on the second-most goal-line carries of any RB? While it's not a good stat, it is a sign that some positive regression is likely coming his way. According to PFF's expected fantasy points model, Pollard ranks fourth-highest among all players in terms of Half-PPR points below expected per game with an insane -4.6. Some of this can definitely be explained by his reduced explosiveness, but a lot of it is just bad luck.
Pollard has also been a victim of some truly bizarre game scripts. Six of the Cowboys' nine games have been blowouts in either direction, in which case Dowdle (and occasionally ) has seen increased work. Despite this, Pollard still ranks among elite RBs in snap share (sixth), rush share (12th), and route share (seventh) — those numbers would be even better if the Cowboys had played in more close games, where Pollard has dominated touches.
At this point, I can't honestly say I'm still expecting RB1 numbers from Pollard. But with his 22% ETI, managers are clearly ready to move on, so you should be able to get him at a bargain, and a bit of positive regression could turn him into a solid RB2 the rest of the way. Our Trade Value Chart, which is based on projections for the rest of the season, agrees, ranking Pollard as the RB15 ... I bet you could get him for less than that in most leagues.
Buy High On
I'm all in on Trey McBride at this point. I've been hyping him up for a while, and I see no reason to stop now. There is absolutely nothing not to like about him from a fantasy football perspective. He was a great prospect as a receiving tight end, with an absurd 46.3% dominator rating (a measure of how much of a team's production a single player has) in college. While he didn't produce much as a rookie, that's very understandable given the history of tight ends adapting slowly to the NFL and the presence of . This season, he began flashing immediately, but the presence of Ertz still capped his ceiling. However, Ertz was placed on IR prior to the Cardinals' Week 8 game, and McBride has taken off from there.
Over his three games without Ertz, McBride has averaged 9.33 targets, a 33% target share, 74 air yards, and 82.7 yards per game. Each of those numbers would rank first among tight ends for the season except targets, which is just behind 's 9.5 targets per game. And those numbers could be even better, as one of those three outings came with under center, a game in which the Cardinals barely moved the ball. In those other two games, all McBride did was see the most targets of any tight end in a game this season (14 in Week 8, since passed by Hockenson with 15) and set the Cardinals' all-time receiving record by a tight end (131 in Week 10). Even counting the game with Tune under center, McBride has averaged 13.8 Half-PPR points per game.
With back on the field and looking like his old self, the sky is the limit for the sophomore tight end, and I would happily pay a premium to acquire him in any league where I did not have an elite tight end. His 18% ETI means he should be available, perhaps from teams that already had an elite tight end but added McBride from waivers and now find themselves with two. If this is you, I recommend holding McBride and selling the other (likely higher in name value) option. If it isn't, go get him.
