Finding The Top Week 9 Fantasy Football Pickups With Predictive Analytics: Trey McBride, Will Levis, Demario Douglas
Let's take a look at fantasy football's most popular waiver wire options heading into Week 9! We can use the Predictive Analytics tool in the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant to help identify the top candidates. This tool predicts the Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) for every player, plus predicts their new rostership level following this week's waiver moves. Here are its current predictions for this week:
Top Predicted Week 9 Fantasy Football Adds
TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
This is a no-brainer. McBride was already starting to cut into Zach Ertz’s role as the top tight end in Arizona, and then the veteran was placed on IR. In his first game as the undisputed top TE for the Cardinals, McBride saw the most targets of ANY tight end so far this season with 14. He caught 10 of those 14, finishing with 95 yards and a touchdown in a huge breakout week. Given that, it’s no surprise that McBride tops the EWI charts with a 51% mark.
But is McBride worth the hype? Yes … and no. On the one hand, there is a very good chance this is his best performance of the season. After all, did you just hear me say that no other tight end has seen 14 targets through the first eight weeks of the season? But on the positive side, there is a very real chance McBride is a set-and-forget TE1 for the foreseeable future. Following his explosion this week, McBride ranks just 18th at the position in targets … but Ertz still ranks 11th. Combining their target numbers, you would have 76, easily the most of any tight end in the league. Obviously, that’s not quite how things work, but McBride doesn’t need to lead the league in targets to be a weekly starter. The 2022 second-rounder is one of the more efficient receiving TEs in the league, ranking fifth in PFF receiving grade and tied for 13th with 10.6 yards per reception. The impending return of Kyler Murray should only be a positive, as Murray is undoubtedly a better QB than Joshua Dobbs and targeted Ertz 7.6 times a game prior to Ertz’s injury in 2022.
The only potential concern with McBride’s ability to be a fantasy stud the rest of the way is the return of Ertz. McBride’s role was growing prior to Ertz’s injury, but the two were still in a 50/50 split, which resulted in neither providing TE1 numbers. With that in mind, don’t put too much faith in McBride to solve your TE problems for good, but he’s at the very least a startable option for now, with more upside once Murrayr returns and the potential to be a TE1 all season if he can keep the top spot when Ertz comes off IR.
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QB Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
As a result of a draft night slide that saw him fall from a potential top-two overall pick to the second pick of the second round, rookie QB Will Levis essentially fell off the fantasy radar for 2023. His fate seemed even further sealed when the Titans preferred 2022 third-rounder Malik Willis to him as Ryan Tannehill’s primary backup to start the season. But with Tannehill sidelined with an ankle injury and Willis struggling in his place last week, Levis got his first career start on Sunday, and boy did he deliver. Levis threw four touchdowns, including three of over 30 yards, showing off his elite arm talent in a 28-23 win for the Titans. Just as important for a rookie QB, Levis didn’t turn the ball over and only took two sacks, keeping Tennessee’s offense on the field and ahead of the chains. All of this resulted in a 26-point fantasy outing that has Levis right behind McBride atop the EWI charts with 49%, a big jump given his current 2% rostership.
Levis is certainly worth adding in leagues where you need a QB. As well as his clear ability to push the ball down the field, he also rushed seven times, including six designed rushes. Those seven plays did total just 11 yards, but that number of designed rushing attempts is huge for his fantasy value. Levis didn’t rush very often in his final year of college thanks to injuries, but he did rack up 500 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground as a junior. When the young QB inevitably has an off day through the air, a handful of designed runs could be enough to keep his floor high for fantasy purposes.
Rookie QBs are notoriously unreliable, and it’s unclear if Levis will maintain the starting job when Ryan Tannehill returns, so don’t expect him to immediately solve your team’s QB woes. But Levis should, at the very least, be a fringe QB1 for the next few weeks, starting with a matchup on Thursday night against the Steelers.
WR Demario Douglas, New England Patriots
Another exciting young player, Demario Douglas is a sixth-round rookie out of Liberty who has been making headlines since he first set foot in New England’s training camp. One of many small, quick receivers in the last few years of draft classes, Douglas has mostly played out of the slot so far in his NFL career. He leads Patriots WRs with an impressive 1.93 yards per route run (28th in the NFL) but, prior to this week, had yet to play more than 62% of snaps or record more than 54 receiving yards in any game. However, the Patriots’ top WR, Kendrick Bourne, unfortunately suffered an ACL tear in Week 8, ending his season; New England’s WR2 DeVante Parker also exited early with a concussion. With Bourne and Parker out, Douglas took over as the Patriots’ top WR, leading the team with an 84% route participation rate and catching five of seven targets, although just for 25 yards. As a result, he ranks third among players and first among WRs with a 34% EWI, set to bring his roster percentage up to around 40%.
With the lack of options on waivers at this time of year, I do think Douglas is the top widely available WR add this week. However, I am worried about his role once Parker returns from concussion protocol. Over the first seven weeks, the 5’8” rookie had played just 17 snaps out wide as a traditional WR, running 82.4% of his routes from the slot. With the Patriots playing 11 personnel on just 54% of their snaps and averaging the second-fewest points per game of any NFL team, Douglas’ ceiling is very limited unless he can earn more snaps outside. On the bright side, he did play 12 such snaps this week; the question is whether he can maintain that workload once Parker is healthy. If he can, Douglas could become a weekly starter, especially in PPR leagues. If not, he may find himself back on waivers within a few weeks. As I said, with waivers at this time of year, we take what we can get, and Douglas is absolutely worth adding — just don’t expect too much.
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