Fantasy Football 2023: Buy Low Candidates Before the Spike
There are plenty of guys whose ADP is going to skyrocket by the time we get to Week 1 for numerous reasons. These are the guys that if you want to get them you better get them now because their price is going to continue to rise. This is not necessarily a reflection on how we believe they will perform in 2023, but how the market will value them by the time we get there.
Buy Low Quarterbacks Based on ADP
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Current ADP: QB15
You are going to hear one word over and over when it comes to Richardson and that word is upside. Granted, there is no way to deny his upside because he is a physical freak. He is going to wow people on the practice field as soon as he enters camp and the team is going to talk up their first-round pick. You are going to hear that he's a faster Cam Newton and a bigger Lamar Jackson, and we guarantee people will describe him as a fantasy cheat code. This talk is only going to ramp up as we get closer to the season and he is able to display his athleticism on the field. While he also has obvious deficiencies and massive downside, the community loves upside, and his stock will soar the closer we get to kickoff.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Current ADP: QB28
Once people see Purdy throwing the ball and know he's over his injury there will be a ton of buzz around him. He's going to be the Week 1 starter, which will also become clear as we race through the summer. Aside from his strong performance last season, there are three things people are going to focus on. You will hear that he will be better this year with experience and starter reps, he has great weapons, and most importantly, Kyle Shanahan is his coach. All these are valid points. He should be a solid quarterback, however, be careful if his stock raises too high because at the end of the day he has average talent in a great system. It's unlikely you'll want him as an every-week starter and he could move close to being a fringe QB1.
Buy Low Running Backs Based on ADP
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
Current ADP: RB33
It still looks unlikely that Dalvin Cook will be a Viking in 2023. The Vikings have replaced Cook with Mattison in a feature on their website, and we've seen Cook covering up Vikings' logos on social media. It's become public that both parties would prefer to move on if possible and we've even heard reports that Cook wants to play in Miami. There is way too much smoke here for there to be no fire. Getting Za'Darius Smith's contract off their books does make it possible Cook could stay purely from a financial standpoint, nonetheless, there is probably too much water under the bridge at this point. Once Cook is out of Minnesota you are going to see Mattison shoot up draft boards. There are a ton of Alexander Mattison truthers who have been waiting for this moment for a long time. His day is finally coming.
Jamaal Williams, New Orleans Saints
Current ADP: RB34
This one is simple and it is amplified by how criminally underrated Williams is to begin with. We don't know what this guy has to do to get some respect, but he's excellent between the 20s and a monster on the goal line. He's going to have all types of metrics and numbers supporting his ascension. However, the big spike will be once Alvin Kamara is suspended for an assault incident that has been pending since before 2022. Buy now before everyone else does because it's going to happen. This will lock Williams in as a clear-cut RB1 for a chunk of the season and at worst the 1b to a seemingly declining Kamara the rest of the way.
Buy Low Wide Receivers Based on ADP
DeAndre Hopkins, FA
Current ADP: WR19
Uncertainty is currently holding back Hopkins, but he has his choice of places to go and once he signs there will be a huge spike in his ADP. It may come back down a bit after the spike but not to where it is now. The three favorites to land him are the Chiefs, Bills, and Browns. So odds are he will be catching passes from Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or DeShaun Watson who he has already had great success with. Fantasy owners are going to be all over him once he's on a roster. The absolute worst-case scenario is him going somewhere like New England who has a subpar QB, but he'd be the clear WR1. It's likely you have days at most before he spikes.
Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs
Current ADP: WR42
Toney is here based on the assumption that Hopkins doesn't go to Kansas City. That could shift the landscape here, but for now, we are going to assume he doesn't. Toney will be viewed as Patrick Mahomes WR1 and he's another guy with unlimited athletic upside. We will hear about how great he will be if he just stays healthy. Unfortunately, he won't stay healthy, nevertheless, that will be the narrative and he could be great if he stayed healthy. We just have no reason to believe he can stay healthy. Still, fantasy owners will swing for the fences for the chance to combine his athleticism with Patrick Mahomes arm and Andy Reid's system.
Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos
Current ADP: TE17
We were between three guys here and they were Dulcich, Chig Okonkwo, and Juwan James. We went with Dulcich because he currently has the lowest ADP, but keep those other two in the back of your mind as we get closer to the season. Dulcich was very good last season coming off of an injury and for better or for worst the fantasy community believes everything Sean Payton touches can turn to gold. Everyone on that Broncos' offense is going to get a bump this fantasy season. Personally, I give them a bump more because of the loss of Nathaniel Hackett more so than the addition of Payton, but Payton is one of those guys that when he is running the offense fantasy owners can't help but buy in. No matter how bad they looked last season with essentially the same personnel.