Week 6: Identifying Fantasy Football Trading Trends Using Predictive Analytics

Kansas City Chiefs veteran running back Darrel Williams is being traded more than anyone. This is mainly because Clyde Edwards-Helaitre suffered a serious knee injury during the Chiefs’ loss to the Buffalo Bills on Monday. In Week 4, Williams saw 12 touches and finished with 58 yards and a touchdown. In Week 5, the veteran saw just eight touches and managed 45 total yards. Jerick McKinnon may mix into the offense as well, but Williams is poised to take over lead-back duties for as long as CEH remains sidelined. Williams is probably the hottest waiver wire commodity in Week 6 (along with Devontae Booker) but his trade value has skyrocketed as well since Edwards-Helaire’s injury. Williams’ value has never been this high. If you can trade him for a trustworthy flex option, now is the time to pull the trigger. His value will never be this high again.

[predict="trade-2021-6"]

Devontae Booker is the other hot waiver wire pickup of the week after taking over for Saquon Barkley. Barkley suffered a bad ankle injury when he stepped on a Dallas Cowboys defender’s foot on Sunday. In Barkley’s absence, Booker was the guy the Giants leaned on heavily (as the team is also missing Daniel Jones, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and Kenny Golladay). Booker scored one touchdown on the ground and had another incredible touchdown through the air in which he stretched his entire body out at the one-yard line in order to get the ball to cross the plane. Booker is going to see 15+ touches for as long as Barkley remains sidelined. Gary Brightwell might be mixed in here and there along with Eli Penny, however, this is Booker’s backfield to lose. That said, the Giants are going to be trailing in just about every matchup they play. If you own Booker, now is a good time to get rid of him. Just like Williams, his value will never be higher than it is right now. After all, he was just a couple of points shy of 20 fantasy points in Week 5. 

[lastten="Devontae Booker"]

Another running back named Williams is being traded quite a bit ahead of Week 6. After David Montgomery went down in Week 4, former Kansas City Chiefs Superbowl hero Damien Williams took over for the Chicago Bears, along with rookie Khalil Herbert. Williams assumed a full workload and score double-digit fantasy points for the second consecutive week. He finished with 64 rushing yards and a touchdown on 16 carries along with two catches for an additional 20 yards. Right now, the Bears offense is in a massive funk with rookie quarterback Justin Fields under center. Still, a workhorse back is a workhorse back. Williams is worthy of an RB2 or flex spot in deep leagues. While I wouldn’t trade one of my stars for him, if you need a boost over the next few weeks while Montgomery is still out, you can certainly do worse than Williams. He’s probably the only skill player on the Bears that I would be comfortable owning.

[career="Damien Williams"]

After returning from injury, one of the most skilled players being traded ahead of Week 6 is AJ Brown. The Titans’ star receiver returned from injury last week and only managed three catches on six targets for 38 yards. He also failed to score a touchdown. Brown’s value has never been this low in his entire career. This is the perfect buy-low opportunity. Brown has not scored a touchdown since Week 1 and his owners are likely getting frustrated with the injuries and lack of production. If you can land Brown now at a discount, he’s worth the chance. He’s not as consistent or dominant as Davante Adams, but Brown is still a fringe WR1 in fantasy football. You can probably get him for the price of a WR2 or WR3 right now. 

Calvin Ridley is another star wideout who is being traded often this week. Ridley struggled the first month of the season and did not travel to London last week with the Falcons for their Week 5 matchup with the Jets. Ridley will return and after four games, the Falcons’ top wideout has produced 27 receptions for 255 yards and one touchdown. Atlanta still needs to develop chemistry between Matt Ryan and their number one receiver. It appeared like Ryan and rookie tight end Kyle Pitts started to get things going this past Sunday. Don’t be surprised if Arthur Smith finds a way to get Ridley more involved moving forward. This is another great buy-low opportunity. Take the chance on Ridley. You won’t be sorry.

After five weeks of the season, Marquise Brown has never been so highly coveted in his young career. In five games, “Hollywood” Brown has27 catches for 446 yards and four touchdowns. Lamar Jackson has been hitting Brown each and every time he gets open. Brown would have more yards and touchdowns if not for some critical wide-open drops. Still, Brown has performed as one of the top wideouts in the NFL through five weeks of the season. Although it is tempting to trade him for a more consistent option, I wouldn’t get rid of Hollywood right now. He is the Ravens’ top target and the most talented player on that offense outside of Lamar Jackson. The Ravens continue to need to throw the ball to stay competitive. Hollywood isn’t going anywhere. Yes, you could probably trade Brown for a player or two who have more long-term value, but you risk losing one of the most electric playmakers in the NFL. Hold onto Brown if you have him.

The NFL’s target leader in 2020, Stefon Diggs, is being traded by a lot of owners heading into Week 6. It’s not hard to understand considering Diggs has just one touchdown to his name and has only eclipsed 100 yards once this season. Still, Diggs has been very consistent. He has amassed 60+ yards in each of the first five outings of the season. On the season, Diggs has accumulated 28 catches for 374 yards and one trip to the end zone. Considering how lethal the Bills passing attack is, I would not give up on Diggs too early. He is still in his prime, though quarterback Josh Allen does like to spread the ball around. Diggs is going to turn it around beginning this week. If you own him, don’t get frustrated and trade him for less than what he is worth.

Lastly, James Robinson is a name that is being tossed around quite a bit this week. After two sub-par performances in Week 1 and Week 2, J-Rob has put together three consecutive double-digit performances. He has 387 rushing yards on 67 attempts (5.7 yards per carry), 14 receptions for 88 yards and four trips to the end zone. Robinson eclipsed 100 yards for the first time this season in Week 5 when he bulldozed his way to 149 rushing yards and a touchdown on 18 carries in Jacksonville’s loss to the Titans. Right now, Robinson’s value is probably higher than it was during his epic streak last season. He has been consistent over the last few weeks and is dominating the touches in Jacksonville’s backfield. Anyone who was worried about Carlos Hyde was clearly acting prematurely. It appears coach Urban Meyer finally got the memo that Robinson is the best player on this Jaguars’ offense. Fantasy owners are asking for a lot in exchange for Robinson and that’s the way it should be. He’s currently performing as a top-10 running back. If you don’t get at least that much value for Robinson, hold on to him and pass on the offer. He simply gets too many opportunities to not return solid value.

[career="James Robinson"]

Well, that’s it for this week. Check back in ahead of Week 6 to see the biggest movers on the trade market. To access trading predictive analytics, utilize the Fantasy Assistant on FantasySP.