Bucks Fantasy Basketball Outlook: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis and More
The Milwaukee Bucks decided to go all in this season when they traded for Damian Lillard just before training camp kicked off. We wrote about how adding Lillard affected several members of the team, but are now going to take a look at the Bucks’ average draft positions (ADP) and determine if that’s where you should be taking them in your fantasy drafts.
Aside from adding Lillard, there were not a lot of roster changes the Bucks made.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo Fantasy Outlook
We will kick things off with Antetokounmpo, who is coming off arguably his best statistical season yet. Antetokounmpo averaged 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 0.8 steals and blocks across 32.1 minutes and 63 games.
Antetokounmpo shot 55.3% from the field for a second straight season, while going 27.5% from behind the 3-point line and 64.5% from the free throw line. He averaged 20.3 field goal attempts a contest.
Antetokounmpo’s overall field goal attempts and points might dip a bit with Lillard in town, but another 30 point per game season still seems reasonable, especially if he plays an extra minute or two a contest. Most of his other statistics should remain pretty similar, with maybe a few more assists and a couple less turnovers a game with Lillard now available.
Antetokounmpo is an undoubted first-round pick for fantasy purposes, currently going behind only Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic and Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Doncic in head-to-head scoring drafts and behind those two and Philadelphia 76ers’ Joel Embiid also in category/roto scoring leagues.
Damian Lillard Fantasy Outlook
For the first time in his career, Lillard will be playing with a franchise other than the Portland Trail Blazers. He played 769 games across 11 seasons with Portland.
You could also argue last season was Lillard’s best statistical season ever, averaging 32.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.3 blocks across 36.3 minutes and 58 games played. Lillard shot 46.3% from the field overall, while going 37.1% from deep and 91.4% from the free throw line.
Lillard also averaged 20.7 field goal attempts a game, a number that could decrease a bit with Antetokounmpo now on the same team. Much like Lillard should do for Antetokounmpo, I believe having Antetokounmpo on the court alongside him will help boost Lillard’s shooting percentages while possibly seeing an increase in assists and decrease in turnovers.
Khris Middleton Fantasy Outlook
Middleton will look to return to his old self after playing in just 33 contests a season ago. He was a starter in just 19 regular season games and averaged 24.3 minutes.
Middleton shot 43.6% overall, but went just 31.5% from behind the 3-point line. He was 90.2% at the free throw line. The veteran wing averaged 15.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.2 blocks.
Middleton is a career 17 point per game scorer for his career, but had averaged above 20 points in four of the previous five seasons with the Bucks. If he’s able to return to full health, Middleton likely averages around his career total with Lillard now in the mix. Middleton was the only Milwaukee player to not practice in full for the team’s first training camp practice, so that’s something to keep an eye on throughout camp and as your draft approaches.
Middleton has an ADP of 75 in H2H leagues and is 68th in category/roto leagues.
Brook Lopez Fantasy Outlook
Lopez had a great bounceback season a year ago after dealing with injuries in 2021-22. He averaged 15.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.5 steals and 2.5 blocks across 30.4 minutes played and 78 contests.
Lopez was efficient, making 53.1% of his field goals and 37.4% of his 3-pointers. He was 78.4% from the free throw line.
If Middleton is able to play most of the season, and with Lillard now taking away potential field goals, Lopez could see his points per game average drop down closer to his Milwaukee five-season average of 13.2. He’ll still be tasked with rebounding and providing paint protection.
Lopez has an ADP of 75 in category/roto leagues and is 76th in H2H leagues.
Other Bucks to Consider
Several other Bucks figure to play prominent roles on this year’s team. One more player will be tasked with starting alongside Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Middleton and Lopez, and then three or four additional guys off the bench should also play a significant amount of minutes.
In head-to-head leagues, Pat Connaughton has an ADP of 82. Bobby Portis is 108th, Jae Crowder is 180th, Malik Beasley is 246th and Cameron Payne is 258th. In category/roto leagues, Portis is the only one of the bunch with an ADP, sitting in 94th.
Portis was Milwaukee’s sixth man a season ago and is expected to fill the same role again this coming season. He averaged 14.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.4 steals and 0.2 blocks across 26 minutes and 70 games played. Portis shot 49.6% overall, 37% from deep and 76.8% from the line. I’d expect pretty similar numbers across the board, with the only potential dip coming in points as he might be on the court with Lillard at the start of his minutes.
Connaughton is a potential player that could fill out the starting lineup this season after starting 33 games a season ago. In 61 games total and 23.7 minutes played a contest, Connaughton averaged 7.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.2 blocks. He fell below 40% shooting overall for the first time since his rookie season, while also dropping to 33.9% from behind the 3-point line and 65.9% from the free throw line.
Beasley is a newcomer to Milwaukee, but could slide right into the starting lineup. Beasley played 81 games and got 27 starts between stints with the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers last year. He averaged 25.8 minutes, 12.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.1 blocks. I like him better as a fantasy asset off the bench, as he would be a much higher scoring option than if he started.
Crowder is another potential starting lineup option given his defensive ability. He played in 18 games with the Bucks last season, averaging 18.9 minutes, 6.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.3 blocks. I’d guess he’ll average over 20 minutes a game in whatever role he plays most often, but the extra minutes would probably only add to his rebound, assist, steal and block numbers.
Payne is a recent addition of the Bucks, and should serve as the backup point guard to Lillard. Payne averaged 20.2 minutes, 10.3 points, 2.2 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.2 blocks across 48 games played with the Phoenix Suns last year. He’ll provide a scoring punch off the bench, but I wouldn’t expect him to play 20 minutes a game with Milwaukee.
Who Should You Draft?
Antetokounmpo is a stat sheet stuffer and should absolutely be going in the first round of drafts. With Lillard alongside him now, his numbers will take a bit of a hit, but he still should be one of the top four picks in all formats. If you can snag him after that, consider yourself lucky.
Lillard should put together a monster season, but not being the only superstar on his team anymore, I’d feel more comfortable taking him at the start of the second round (in 10-team leagues) than at the end of the first. There’s a couple guys with lower ADPs that will fill the stat sheet a touch more, even if they are scoring less than Lillard, and I’d prefer them over Lillard in all formats.
Middleton and Lopez are going near each other in drafts. That creates the question of which guy should you be taking first. Middleton’s recent injury history scares me a touch, and with Lopez being the defensive presence he is, I’d actually lean Lopez over Middleton. In terms of their ADP, I think both guys are appropriately ranked in any format.
Portis is the next guy I’d be targeting. Even though he’ll likely come off the bench, he’s going to be a better fantasy asset than the team’s fifth starter. I also like the ADPs attached to Portis’ name.
Not knowing who will fill out the starting lineup makes things a touch complicated for guys like Connaughton, Beasley, Payne and Crowder. Connaughton is going too early for my liking in H2H leagues - I like him better in the last round or two in a standard 13-player roster. I’d also consider Beasley in one of the last couple rounds, while letting someone else draft Crowder or Payne, or scoping them off the waiver wire if they prove to be consistent fantasy assets.
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