2022 NBA Finals: Odds & Predictions
Although the NBA Dunk Contest was “a disgrace,” according to Stephen A. Smith, fans and bettors were treated to an entertaining All-Star Game this year in Cleveland. Team LeBron defeated Team Durant, 163-160, as Stephen Curry hit the most threes in the history of an All-Star Game (16) on his way to a 50-point effort. Before NBA action picks back up tomorrow, let’s take a look at the top contenders’ odds at winning the NBA Championships as we gear up for the second half of the season.
Typically by the All-Star break, there is usually a team that seems destined to make and win the NBA Finals. However, there isn’t a clear-cut favorite this season. The Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns are tied with the best odds to win it all out of the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets, Milwaukee Bucks, and Philadelphia 76ers aren’t too far behind in the East.
Please Note: All odds are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
2022 NBA Champion Odds
|
Team |
Odds |
|
Golden State Warriors |
+410 |
|
Phoenix Suns |
+410 |
|
Brooklyn Nets |
+550 |
|
Milwaukee Bucks |
+650 |
|
Philadelphia 76ers |
+750 |
|
Miami Heat |
+1000 |
|
Utah Jazz |
+1500 |
|
Boston Celtics |
+2700 |
|
Chicago Bulls |
+2700 |
|
Memphis Grizzlies |
+3000 |
|
Denver Nuggets |
+3300 |
|
Los Angeles Lakers |
+4200 |
|
Dallas Mavericks |
+4200 |
|
Cleveland Cavaliers |
+5000 |
|
Minnesota Timberwolves |
+10000 |
|
Los Angeles Clippers |
+10000 |
|
Toronto Raptors |
+10000 |
|
Atlanta Hawks |
+16000 |
|
+24000 |
We did not list the Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards, Oklahoma City Thunder, New Orleans Pelicans, Indiana Pacers, Sacramento Kings, Detroit Pistons, Portland Trail Blazers, New York Knicks, or Orlando Magic. All 11 of those teams are currently listed at +50000 to win the title on FanDuel Sportsbook. None of those teams have a shot at winning the championship. I doubt any of them will even make the play-in games in the postseason.
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Western Conference Contenders
Phoenix Suns (48-10) +410
The Suns will have to survive perhaps the rest of the regular season without superstar point guard Chris Paul. CP3 suffered a fractured thumb that will keep him sidelined for up to two months. Phoenix has the depth to deal with Paul’s injury but another significant player going down could hurt their title chances significantly. Don’t forget that this team was two games away from defeating Milwaukee in last year’s NBA Finals.
Although Paul’s injury may affect the Suns’ seeding, it shouldn’t matter as long as the playmaker is healthy enough to give it a go by playoff time. Cameron Payne will step into the starting lineup and do what is needed to keep Phoenix afloat. Whether they are forced to play the Los Angeles Lakers again, or a less-skilled team such as the Clipper or Timberwolves, Phoenix should have no problem making another postseason run so long as Paul is healthy in the postseason. Devin Booker has become one of the best scorers in the league, DeAndre Ayton is a double-double machine who has a propensity for protecting the rim, and this team is full of solid three-point shooters and lock-down defenders such as Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges, and Cameron Johnson.
Playoff Starting Lineup:
- PG Chris Paul
- SG Devin Booker
- SF Mikal Bridges
- PF Jae Crowder
- C DeAndre Ayton
- Sixth Man: Cameron Johnson
Golden State Warriors (46-12) +410
Ever since Draymond Green suffered an injury, the Warriors have not been on top of their game. That said, Green is expected to return to the lineup very shortly, and once that happens, the Dubs should be rolling again. The Warriors are poised to hold home-court advantage for at least the first two rounds of the postseason barring a momentous collapse. Curry is playing lights-out basketball and his Splash Brother, Klay Thompson, recently made his return. That should make the Warriors even more dangerous. Not to mention, Jonathan Kuminga has stepped up since Green has been sidelined and second-year big man, James Wiseman, is also nearing a return, which will only help the Warriors’ depth.
Playoff Starting Lineup:
- PG Stephen Curry
- SG Klay Thompson
- SF Andrew Wiggins
- PF Jonathan Kuminga
- C Draymond Green
- Sixth Man: Jordan Poole
Eastern Conference Contenders
Brooklyn Nets (31-28) +550
The Nets haven’t been nearly as dominant as we expected this season, but that’s large because the team hasn’t had its big three healthy. Now, the Nets have made a blockbuster trade that sent James Harden to Philly in exchange for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, and Andre Drummond. Trading Harden put a dent in Brooklyn’s odds to win the title, but they are still the favorite to represent the East in the NBA Finals, despite being just the No. 8 seed coming out of the All-Star break.
Former 76er, Ben Simmons, is expected to increase his practice time and Brooklyn hopes that they will have Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and Simmons all on the floor very soon. Simmons may not be the deep-range threat that Harden is, but he is still a dominant force with the ball in his hands. With Durant on the floor, anything can happen for the Nets. And perhaps Brooklyn’s chemistry will only improve with a player like Simmons who doesn’t demand a ton of shots like Harden, KD, or Irving. And don’t forget that the Nets were able to sign veteran point guard Goran Dragic off waivers. That could prove pivotal, especially if New York City does not lift the vaccine mandate before the postseason. If they do, Kyrie Irving will be available for every single playoff game, which is dangerous for Brooklyn’s opponents. I’m not sure that any team has a big three as talented as Brooklyn right now, plus they are very well-coached by Steve Nash and have a better supporting cast than they did at the beginning of the season after the Harden trade. That squad of KD, Kyrie, Simmons along with Patty Mills, Seth Curry, Blake Griffin, LaMarcus Aldridge, and now Goran Dragic will be very difficult to beat at full strength.
Playoff Starting Lineup:
- PG Ben Simmons
- SG Kyrie Irving
- SF Seth Curry
- PF Kevin Durant
- C Andre Drummond
- Sixth Man: Patty Mills
Milwaukee Bucks (36-24) +650
The reigning NBA champs haven’t been quite as good as they were last season, but this is still a well-coached group with perhaps the most dominant active player in the NBA. Giannis Antetokounmpo has surpassed LeBron James in this writer’s humble opinion and due to his ability to stay on the court, I’d prefer to have him on my squad than Kevin Durant. The Greek Freak is a six-time All-Star and a two-time MVP. Including the All-Star Game, Antetekounmpo has tallied a double-double in five of his last six games and is averaging 29.5 points, 11.3 boards, 6.0 assists, 1.4 blocks, and 1.0 steals in just 32 minutes per game.
Still, he’s not the only one that opposing teams need to worry about. Khris Middleton proved in last year’s postseason run that he is a force not to be considered lightly. Middleton is one of the team’s best mid-range and deep-range shooters who can create for himself off the dribble. He’s dropping just shy of 20 points per game while dishing out 5+ dimes and hauling in 5+ boards per game. Jrue Holliday also helps in the backcourt after returning from injury. The point guard not known for his efficiency from deep has been one of the best three-point shooters as of late while averaging 18.1 points and 6.6 assists per game.
The Bucks made some moves at the trade deadline to help strengthen the frontcourt. Although Bobby Portis is having a career year, Milwaukee brought in reinforcements from the Clippers in veteran big man Serge Ibaka. Ibaka should help on the defensive end of the court until Brook Lopez returns to action. With sharpshooter Pat Connaughton out for the next month, Grayson Allen will continue to have to step it up. He’s Milwaukee’s most reliable threat from three-point range. And with Donte DiVencenzo shipped out to Sacramento, Allen’s role will be that much more pivotal.
The Eastern Conference has a ton of teams fighting for that ever-so-elusive spot in the NBA Finals. Milwaukee may not be the favorites to represent the East in back-to-back championships, but with Giannis, you can never count them out.
Playoff Starting Lineup:
- PG Jrue Holiday
- SG Grayson Allen
- SF Khris Middleton
- PF Giannis Antetokounmpo
- C Brook Lopez
- Sixth Man: Bobby Portis
Philadelphia 76ers (35-23) +750
Despite playing without the service of Ben Simmons, the Sixers have been very competitive this season. Joel Embiid has been an absolute monster, averaging just shy of 30 points per game. He’s also chipping in 11+ rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.4 blocks, and 1.0 steals per game. Tyrese Maxey has filled in admirably for Simmons. ​​Over his last seven games, Maxey has averaged 17.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.3 triples while shooting 50% from the floor and 88% from the foul line. His value may take a hit when Harden returns to the hardwood, but Maxey is Philly’s starting point guard for the foreseeable future. Considering Embiid’s domination, Maxey’s improvement, and Tobias Harris’ stability and consistency (approximately 18 points and seven rebounds per game), the Sixers could be the Eastern Conference’s favorite once Harden steps onto the floor in his new uniform.
I don’t love Phaildelphia’s second unit following the acquisition of Harden but “The Beard” is averaging 22.5 points, 10.2 assists, and 8.0 rebounds per game through 44 games this season with the Nets. I anticipate similar numbers with the Sixers as Philly’s primary ball-handler and top shooter from beyond the arc. ​​Harden said that he's in the process of strengthening his left hamstring, and he expects to be a "full go" coming out of the All-Star break. The Sixers are relatively healthy so they have the entire second half of the season to build rapport and chemistry. And even though I’m not in love with Philly’s depth, they do have some outspoken veteran leaders such as Paul Millsap and Danny Green, plus some young talent off the bench in Shake Milton, Furkan Korkmaz, and even big man Willie Cauley-Stein.
Playoff Starting Lineup:
- PG Tyrese Maxey
- SG James Harden
- SF Matisse Thybulle
- PF Tobias Harris
- C Joel Embiid
- Sixth Man: Shake Milton
Miami Heat (38-21) +1000
Although Miami is in first place in the East, I have a hard time believing that they have the offensive firepower to defeat the Nets, Bucks, or Sixers in a seven-game series. Tyler Herro is almost a lock to win the Sixth Man of the Year Award, but I expect the Heat to get ousted in the second round of the playoffs. Don’t get me wrong, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are absolute studs, but if the three-ball isn’t working for Duncan Robinson and Herro, it’s tough to imagine Miami winning the physical battle.
Adebayo is a double-double machine (six in his last seven outings) but the Heat lack depth at the center position. When he needs rest, can the Heat rely on DeWayne Dedmon and Omer Yurtseven? I don’t think so. Not to mention, Kyle Lowry is in the waning years of his career manning the point and Butler can only take so much of bruising before he suffers a significant injury. As much as I love this team’s heart, I wouldn’t bet a dime on Miami winning the title.
Playoff Starting Lineup:
- PG Kyle Lowry
- SG Duncan Robinson
- SF Jimmy Butler
- PF P.J. Tucker
- C Bam Adebayo
- Sixth Man: Tyler Herro
Personally, I like Philadelphia out of the East and Golden State out of the West with the Warriors eventually lifting the trophy. I know it’s not bold, but it’s smart. That said, looking at the rest of the field, there is one other team that stands out to me as potential champions and they are not being given the respect they deserve by bookmakers.
The Chicago Bulls are currently listed at +2700 despite being tied with the Heat for first place in the Eastern Conference. Even though Chicago is missing key players such as Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso, this team continues to fight for home-court advantage throughout the postseason. And once Ball and Caruso return, Chicago’s perimeter defense is going to improve drastically. They are two of the best defensive guards in the NBA. Not to mention, the Bills brought in veteran center Tristan Thompson to backup Nikola Vucevic.
While I don’t see them winning it all, it would not surprise me if the Bulls represented the East in the NBA Finals. Right now, FanDuel Sportsbook is providing +1500 odds of that happening. But think about it. Chicago is tied with Miami for the top seed in the East despite injuries and DeMar DeRozan is having a career season. DeRozan has been great for years now, but he wasted a couple of seasons when he was with a Spurs squad that had nothing to play for. In fact, DeRozan has been lighting up the stat sheet for several years now.
DeRozan was the big free-agent move Chicago made this past offseason, but adding Vucevic was no small move itself. Vuc is averaging 18+ points and 11+ rebounds per game this season and was coming off a string of five double-doubles in six outings heading into the All-Star Break. He is most definitely a massive upgrade over Wendell Carter Jr. from last season. Plus, the Bulls got to keep Zach LaVine, a physical specimen who is unmatched in the NBA. Last season, LaVine was forced to be the go-to option on offense with nobody else to rely on, which is why he averaged over 27 points per game last year. This year, he’s taken a slight step back to make room for his new teammates. He’s still dropping 24+ points per contest while converting a very respectable true shooting percentage.
Lonzo Ball should be back in the rotation by mid-March, but Coby White has done a superb job in his absence. White dropped a season-high 31 points vs. the Kings in the final game before the All-Star break, hitting 11-of-19 shots and 3-of-4 free throws with six assists, five rebounds, one steal, and six triples.
The Bulls have the depth at the guard position to make a deep run into the postseason, especially considering Ayo Dosunmu has been performing well of his own accord. Both White and Dosonmu will see a slight downtick in production once LaVine is back in action tomorrow and once Lonzo Ball returns to the rotation, but it is good to know that Chicago can compete without their starting point guard.
To conclude, the Warriors at +410 are solid picks to win the championship given their playoff experience and the energy and leadership of the Splash Brothers and Draymond Green. You can take the Sixers at +380 to represent the East in the NBA Finals, but I’m going with the longshot and taking a chance on the Bulls at +1500 odds.
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