Dylan Cease has Taken a Fantasy Leap After Trade to San Diego
A look at the team Cease will be joining compared to his old team and what it means for his fantasy value.
The Chicago White Sox finally traded their top pitcher, Dylan Cease, after more than a year of rumors. Cease leaves a bottom-dwelling team to head to sunny San Diego, where he will compete for the playoffs surrounded by star talent.
From a fantasy perspective, Cease is immediately going from one of the worst situations in baseball to one of the best. Pitchers control things like strikeouts and home runs allowed regardless of their fielders, but balls in play are out of the pitcher’s hands in most cases.
I wanted to see if we can make any clear judgements on the theory that Cease is in a better fantasy situation and if he should be more highly rated with his new team. Let’s look at the new defense and offense he is joining, along with the other players involved in the trade.
The Defense
Defensive metrics are finnicky and hard to trust the same way we do with batting stats. Part of that is time; batting average has been around since the 1800s, and we understand it.
These advanced defensive stats are trying to capture the impact of a fielder that we can’t always see. When defensive metrics were touting Derek Jeter as one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball, it was hard to comprehend. He made most of the plays that he got to, but a deeper look showed that Jeter’s range was severely lacking behind other players, especially at the end of his career.
In 2023 defensive stats measured by Baseball Reference, the Padres were routinely a top-10 defense by any metric and the White Sox were in the bottom 10. A look back to 2022 tells the same story.
Cease is likely going from one of the worst defenses in the league to one of the best in 2024. There isn’t much of a bigger jump any player can take in terms of situation and surrounding talent.
Run Support
That bump from his teammates will be the same on offense. Last season, the Padres scored the 13th-most runs per game, right near league average. The White Sox were 29th, joining Oakland as the only teams to score less than four runs per game.
Most advanced batting stats show the same thing, with San Diego near the middle and Chicago near the bottom. Just by getting a competent lineup around him, Cease can expect close to an extra run per start from his team, leading to more wins and possibly longer outings when holding leads.
The Padres traded their best hitter, Juan Soto, to the Yankees this offseason, and the lineup will feel the effect. The offense is still lead by Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, though, and will almost certainly be better than the Sox.
White Sox Return
It’s worth checking in on the players headed to Chicago to see if they offer any current fantasy value. While there could be a few appearances by the end of the season, nothing fantasy-relevant is likely to come from this crew.
Steven Wilson has been a relief pitcher in the majors for a few years, but he isn’t expected to be a closer, keeping him out of fantasy consideration. Outfielder Samuel Zavala is years away from possibly reaching the big leagues.
Drew Thorpe started the offseason with the Yankees before heading to San Diego in the Soto trade. He’s now the biggest piece of the Cease deal and may see work with the White Sox later in the season, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
Jairo Iriarte is another pitcher with a chance for the big league rotation down the line, but he’s a level below Thorpe in readiness. He could be worthy of a September callup, especially depending on the trade deadline, but Iriarte won’t be much of a factor in 2024.
If Thorpe hits the rotation, he could be worth a flier as a streamer depending on his matchup and your team. There’s nothing to see here as we enter the season.
Conclusion
Cease was a Cy Young contender in 2022 who struggled on a horrible White Sox team last year. I’m betting on the upside as he heads to the much better Padres, who will compete for the playoffs.
His win total and ERA are likely to improve; he already strikes out a ton of batters. Cease is worth keeping on your fantasy team if you play streamers.
No one else involved in the trade is worth fantasy consideration right now. Thorpe is a future guy if your league goes deep and/or has minor league keepers. There won’t be much from this group other than Cease until 2025 at the earliest.
#2024-fantasy-baseball-draft
