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Connelly Early or Mason Miller

Who Should I Start? - Week 15 • Start New
Connelly Early

Connelly Early

SPBoston Red Sox BOS
Mason Miller

Mason Miller

RPSan Diego Padres SD
OR
🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Early over Miller

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Connelly Early

Connelly Early looks to build on a strong rebound effort, but a tough matchup with the division-leading Yankees looms.

Connelly Early bounced back in his last outing on June 21, throwing six innings of one-run ball in a victory. It was a needed relief for the last-place Red Sox (31-44), especially with key starters like Garrett Crochet currently sidelined. Early remains firmly locked into the Boston rotation, slotting in as the team's number four starter.

While his 14-day ERA swelled to 5.63 due to a home-run surge, his season-long 3.75 ERA and 1.31 WHIP align closely with his career baseline. Our models project a 3.72 ERA and 1.21 WHIP the rest of the way, supported by a healthy strikeout rate of nearly one per inning. If he can curb the long ball, his underlying metrics suggest he will remain a viable fantasy asset.

Early has a single start scheduled at home on June 25 against the Yankees. He faces an incredibly tough matchup in Cam Schlittler, who boasts a dominant 1.71 ERA and 0.89 WHIP on the year. Given the challenging opponent and Early's vulnerability to power, fantasy managers should bench the rookie this week. Verdict: Sit.

Updated 12 hrs ago

Latest News Connelly Early
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🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Miller over Early

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Mason Miller

Mason Miller's historic late-inning dominance makes him an elite active option for the week ahead.

Mason Miller has been nearly unhittable over his last 14 days, posting a flawless 0.00 ERA and a tiny 0.24 WHIP with 10 strikeouts over 4.1 innings. Despite the fifth-place Royals (32-46) sitting at the bottom of the AL Central, Miller remains the undisputed anchor of the bullpen, especially with setup man Carlos Estevez currently sidelined on the injured list.

Miller's current 0.93 season ERA and absurd 19.00 K/9 are historically dominant, far outpacing his career 2.62 mark. While our projections expect minor regression toward a 2.55 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, his elite fastball velocity and rising slider miss-distance confirm that this high-strikeout ceiling is entirely sustainable.

This week, Kansas City embarks on a road trip against the Rays and the division-rival White Sox. These matchups promise several tight, low-scoring environments, lining Miller up for multiple high-leverage opportunities. Our weekly models project him for a 0.81 ERA and 5.1 strikeouts across 3.1 innings of work, making him an elite active option. Verdict: Start.

Updated 12 hrs ago

Latest News Mason Miller
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Performance Connelly Early
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
1.501-000720.671
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
5.361-2001681.723
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Performance Mason Miller
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
0.000-001201.001
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
0.000-0021000.244
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Next Up Own/Start Comparison
OWN/START Connelly Early
OWN
65%
-10.11 compared to last week
START
39%
-18.37 compared to last week
OWN/START Mason Miller
OWN
100%
-0.02 compared to last week
START
95%
+0.06 compared to last week
Next Up Consensus Rankings
Expert Consensus Connelly Early
58th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Expert Consensus Mason Miller
1st
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Next Up Player Breakdowns
Breakdown Connelly Early

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 59th among SP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 44th.
  • The current leader among SP's is Jacob Misiorowski
  • He is doing better than most people thought he would.
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • Top 100 in WHIP and is currently ranked 78th
  • Top 75 in ERA and is currently ranked 70th with 4.11
  • Top 75 in walks and is currently ranked 52nd with 18
  • Top 100 in strikeouts and is currently ranked 79th with 55
  • Top 35 in wins and is currently ranked 27th with 5
  • Slight decline in numbers lately at 2 PPG.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: +6, L: +5, WHIP: +1.31, ERA: +3.75, K's: +79, Walks: +31
Breakdown Mason Miller

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 1st among RP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 5th.
  • The current leader among RP's is Cade Smith
  • He is putting up the kind of numbers the experts expected him to.
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • Top 100 in WHIP and is currently ranked 79th
  • Top 35 in ERA and is currently ranked 29th with 1.52
  • Top 75 in walks and is currently ranked 71st with 10
  • Top 20 in strikeouts and is currently ranked 19th with 34
  • He is among the best in saves and is currently ranked 6th with 12
  • His average points in the past two weeks have remained fairly consistant and rose slightly by 0.1 PPG.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: EVEN, L: -1, WHIP: -0.531, ERA: -4.647, K's: +14, Walks: -3
Next Up Health Check
Injury Connelly Early

No Injury Reported

Injury Mason Miller

No Injury Reported

Next Up Matchup Comparison
Matchups Connelly Early
DateOpponentResult
Jun 22@COLRyan Feltner
Jun 23@COLSean Sullivan
Jun 24@COLKyle Freeland
Jun 25VS NYYCam Schlittler
Jun 26VS NYYWill Warren
Jun 27VS NYYGerrit Cole
Jun 28VS NYYCarlos Rodon
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
5.290-100431.571
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Matchups Mason Miller
DateOpponentResult
Jun 22VS ATLGrant Holmes
Jun 23VS ATLJR Ritchie
Jun 24VS ATLMartin Perez
Jun 26VS LADRoki Sasaki
Jun 27VS LADYoshinobu Yamamoto
Jun 28VS LADEmmet Sheehan
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
0.000-101132.502
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Next Up Ratings Comparison
Rating Connelly Early
10.82
FantasySP Player Rating
Rating Mason Miller
18.50
FantasySP Player Rating
Next Up Career Comparison
Career Connelly Early
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2025 BOS 5 23.0 401 35 5 0 1-3 3.13 1.22 13.7 49
2026 BOS 15 79.1 1369 79 31 0 6-5 3.74 1.31 9 180
ON PACE 32 171 2957 170 66 0 12-10 3.74 1.31 9 389
3-YEAR AVG 5 22 401 35 5 0 1-3 3.13 1.22 13.7 49
Career 20 102.1 1770 114 36 0 0-0 3.61 1.29 10
Career Mason Miller
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2023 OAK 10 33.1 609 38 16 0 0-3 3.78 1.2 10.3 62
2024 OAK 55 62.2 1024 104 21 28 2-2 2.59 0.89 14.9 328
2025 ATH 62 59.2 1012 112 28 22 1-2 2.72 0.96 16.9 299
2026 SD 30 31.0 519 61 12 20 1-1 0.87 0.81 17.7 208
ON PACE 63 67 1106 130 25 42 2-2 0.87 0.81 17.7 442
3-YEAR AVG 42 51 882 85 22 17 1-2 2.94 0.98 14.7 230
Career 157 184.1 3164 315 77 0 0-0 2.59 0.97 15.4
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Matchups

Week 1
ARI @LAC
ATL @PIT
BAL @IND
BUF @HOU
CAR vs CHI
CIN vs TB
CLE @JAC
DAL @NYG
DEN @KC
DET vs NO
GB @MIN
LAR vs SF
LV vs MIA
NE @SEA
NYJ @TEN
PHI vs WAS
Matchup Time Pitchers
ARI @STL 07:45 EDT EST Merrill Kelly
Andre Pallante
ATL @SD 10:10 EDT EST Grant Holmes
Michael King
BAL @LAA 09:38 EDT EST Kyle Bradish
Sam Aldegheri
BOS @COL 08:40 EDT EST Jake Bennett
Ryan Feltner
CHC @NYM 07:10 EDT EST Shota Imanaga
Kodai Senga
CHW vs CLE 07:40 EDT EST Anthony Kay
Gavin Williams
CIN vs MIL 07:10 EDT EST Brady Singer
Brandon Woodruff
DET vs NYY 06:10 EDT EST Framber Valdez
Gerrit Cole
HOU @TOR 07:07 EDT EST Hunter Brown
Shane Bieber
KC @TB 06:40 EDT EST Michael Wacha
Drew Rasmussen
LAD @MIN 07:40 EDT EST Eric Lauer
Zebby Matthews
MIA vs TEX 06:40 EDT EST Tyler Phillips
Kumar Rocker
PHI @WAS 06:45 EDT EST
Foster Griffin
Matchup Time
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