Saturday NFL Prop Bets: C.J. Stroud, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and More

There are two NFL games on the schedule on Saturday, both with playoff implications for each team involved.

The Texans and Chargers kick things off, with Los Angeles already having clinched a playoff spot but still alive for the AFC West crown if they can win this week and next. Houston needs a win to clinch a playoff spot, and they could also win the AFC South if Jacksonville slips up.

Baltimore visits Green Bay in the nightcap needing to win for a chance to play for the AFC North next week (and needing the Steelers to lose to Cleveland). The Packers locked up a playoff spot when the Lions lost on Thursday, but they can still win the NFC North with two wins and two Chicago losses.

With everyone going all out with something to play for, let's look at one prop bet for each of the four teams in action on Saturday. The lines are from our prop tool, which uses different sportsbooks to find the best numbers. Most stats are from NFL.com.

Use FantasySP's prop bet tool to find the players projected to beat their lines each week!

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

OVER/UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns

It's hard to get a consensus on Stroud's 2025 season because he has been better from a real-life perspective than in fantasy football. In 11 games in which Stroud has thrown at least 10 passes, he averaged 231.7 passing yards per game on 7.0 per attempt with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions.

That's fine work, but it doesn't add up to many fantasy points, and Stroud has added just modest rushing: 17.5 yards per game with no touchdowns. We're worried about his touchdown count here, not his fantasy performance, but it helps show that Stroud's performance isn't as straightforward as a guy like Matthew Stafford.

He also has a tough matchup here, as the Chargers have allowed the six-fewest yards per pass attempt and 14 passing touchdowns in 15 games. Los Angeles gave up two TD passes in just three games: two of them were blowout wins against the Raiders and Cowboys, and one was against the Colts when they looked like the best offense in football.

With LA allowing less than a touchdown per game and Stroud averaging a little under 1.5 and only reaching two TDs in four games, things are pointing toward Stroud coming in under this number.

Advice: Bet Stroud UNDER 1.5 touchdowns.

Oronde Gadsden, Los Angeles Chargers

OVER/UNDER 2.5 receptions

Gadsden was a revelation at tight end earlier this season. Based on that performance, this would seem like an easy over bet. From Weeks 6 through 10, for instance, Gadsden averaged 5.4 receptions and 78 yards per game.

Since that time, though, he has only reached three catches in one of five games and had exactly one reception in three of those contests. Gadsden's season has flipped upside down.

Baltimore is right in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed. They have given up the sixth-most completions while facing the fourth-most pass attempts; the Chargers have completed the 11th-most passes, for what it's worth. Specific to tight ends, the Ravens have allowed 5.1 receptions and 48.7 yards per game.

Gadsden has a decent outlook here, but there's also risk given his recent cold streak. He did catch four passes for 61 yards two weeks ago against the Chiefs, so we have at least some recent success. I like Gadsden's chances of catching at least three passes.

Advice: Bet Gadsden OVER 2.5 receptions

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

OVER/UNDER 72.5 rushing yards

Henry is averaging 83.5 rushing yards per game and has reached 73 yards in eight of 15 contests. There has been a little consternation about his usage lately, but Henry has topped 73 yards in three straight games, six of eight, and seven of 10.

Lamar Jackson is doubtful for Saturday's game, so Tyler Huntley will likely be under center. That hurts Henry's outlook, but Huntley is still a running quarterback, which helps the RBs. Huntley played around half the snaps last week, and in that time, Henry carried the ball nine times for 72 yards and a touchdown.

That came against the Patriots, who are right in the middle as a run defense. Huntley also started in Week 8, and Henry had 21 carries for 71 yards and two scores in a good matchup against the Bears.

This week's opponent is tougher, as the Packers have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per rush attempt. Running back groups are averaging 88.9 rushing yards per game against Green Bay; four individual backs have reached 73 yards against the Pack, and 10 of 15 teams reached that mark total among the backfield.

The matchup points toward a tougher game, but Henry has been good lately, and the team is likely to rely on their veteran back with Jackson out. After there were questions about Henry not getting the ball late last week, the coaching staff will likely be conscious about getting him on the field.

Advice: Bet Henry OVER 72.5 rushing yards.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

OVER/UNDER 14.5 carries

The starting back on the opposite sideline, Jacobs has appeared in 13 games in which he played at least 15 snaps, and in those games, he averaged 17.2 carries. He reached at least 15 attempts in nine of those contests.

Jacobs is coming off back-to-back games with just 12 carries. He was over 15 carries in each of the previous four games before that (other than one when he got injured), so Jacobs has a good outlook for topping this number.

After fumbling in the second half last week, Jacobs didn't play another snap and was out-snapped by Emanuel Wilson. He has been dealing with injuries on top of the fumble, but with playoff position on the line, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Jacobs on the field often.

Jordan Love is out for this game, so like Henry, Jacobs might see a bump. With Huntley starting for Baltimore, the Ravens are also unlikely to get a big lead, so the running game should stay the focus of the offense. I like Jacobs' chances of getting the ball often in a must-win game for the NFC North title.

Advice: Bet Jacobs OVER 14.5 carries.