Week 16 NFL Saturday Prop Bets: Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams, and More

As the fantasy football season winds down, betting becomes a little more popular among those who want to stay involved in some way. Some people can't get into the game unless they have stakes; more power to them, I guess.

That makes it a good time to start taking more note of betting lines and prop bets as we hurdle toward the postseason. Let's look at some of the best prop bets for Saturday's games. Lines are courtesy of our prop tool. Most stats are from NFL.com.

Use FantasySP's prop bet tool to find the players projected to outperform their Vegas lines each week.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

Jalen Hurts OVER/UNDER 219.5 passing yards

Washington offers one of the best matchups to opposing passing games, allowing the most yards per pass attempt and the fifth-most passing yards per game (nearly 260). The Commanders have only held four of 14 quarterbacks under 220 passing yards, and one of those was a few weeks back when the Vikings won 31-0 and didn't have to throw much.

Hurts has averaged 209.2 passing yards per game. He reached 220 in seven of 14 games; this 219.5 numbers feels just about right given Hurts' play and Washington's brutally bad defense.

It seems like an easy over, but the Eagles could dominate this game and focus on the run. Washington has given up the fifth-most yards per rush attempt, so Philadelphia could see both Hurts and Saquon Barkley do damage on the ground. Volume is the biggest question around Hurts this week.

Hurts is averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt; at that rate, he would have to throw 30 times to reach 220 yards. Washington allows 8.4 yards per attempt, which would take 27 passes. Hurts has thrown the ball at least 27 times in seven games: Philly's five losses and two one-score wins over the Rams and Lions.

The most likely outcome is that the Eagles control the game, and that would mean fewer pass attempts. Hurts has thrown the ball 28.4 times per game, but that number is buoyed by a few contests; he is likely to throw it less this time.

Our prop tool projects Hurts for 233.8 yards. That seems likely in a competitive game, so the question is whether you think the Commanders will keep it close enough to force Hurts to throw the ball. It's probably a little too close for me to comfortably bet, but the prop tool loves Hurts' over this week.

Advice: Skip this bet. If you like the prop bet tool, then you'll be heavy on Hurts, but I see a realistic outcome in which they win comfortably, and Hurts doesn't throw enough to break 200 yards.

Philly Pass Catchers

• A.J. Brown OVER/UNDER 65.5 receiving yards
• DeVonta Smith OVER/UNDER 56.5 receiving yards
• Dallas Goedert OVER/UNDER 36.5 receiving yards

If Hurts is going to have a big game, then it makes sense that his pass catchers would top their prop numbers also. The prop tool projects Brown (74.7 yards), Smith (65.7), and Goedert (45.6) to all top their required numbers. Rather than spreading the money across three guys, it's a better idea to choose one, though, so the question is which guy is most likely to hit his over.

Brown has averaged 64.6 yards per game and has reached 66 yards in six of his 13 games. That includes at least 100 yards in three straight games before he had 41 yards on two catches while the Eagles beat up on the Raiders last week.

Smith is at 63.5 receiving yards per game and hit 57 yards in six of 14 games, not reaching the mark since the Sunday before Thanksgiving. Both Smith and Brown are averaging over 13 yards per catch.

Goedert is coming off a big game against Las Vegas: six catches, 70 yards, and two touchdowns. That was his second straight game with at least 70 yards, though he was below 30 yards in each of the previous three. Goedert is averaging 42.4 receiving yards per game and has reached 37 yards in six of 13 contests.

Any of the three have a good case, but Washington has given up 5.2 receptions and close to 65 yards per game to the tight end position. Goedert is on a hot stretch, and with the matchup heavily in his favor, I like his odds of having another big game.

Advice: Bet Goedert OVER 36.5 receiving yards.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Jordan Love OVER/UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns

When these teams played two weeks ago, Love had 234 yards on 9.4 per attempt with three touchdowns and an interception. Love has thrown 23 touchdowns in 14 games, finding the end zone multiple times in seven of those contests.

The matchup is the real intriguing thing here, as the Bears have given up the seventh-most yards per pass attempt and 27 touchdown passes, the fifth most. Chicago allowed two or more touchdown passes in eight games.

Everything here seems to be pointing toward the over. There is no such thing as a guaranteed winning bet, but Love has been consistently good most of the season and has the matchup heavily in his favor here. Our projections peg Love for 1.8 touchdowns, and I feel good about him finding the end zone a couple times.

Advice: Bet Love OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns.

Caleb Williams OVER/UNDER 212.5 passing yards

Green Bay's defense is something of the antithesis of Chicago's, allowing the fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the seventh-fewest total passing yards. Micah Parsons suffered a torn ACL last week, and his absence will surely change the equation in Green Bay, but the Packers still have a strong defensive group (as long as they don't keep losing guys; injuries are adding up).

Quarterbacks are averaging 208.6 passing yards per game against Green Bay, and the Pack held the opposing QB under 213 yards in seven of 14 games. When they matched up a few weeks back, Williams had just 186 yards on 5.3 per attempt.

Williams is averaging 225 passing yards on 6.9 per attempt, a slightly below-average mark. He has been fine, but Williams has struggled against tougher matchups, including recent games under 200 yards against the Eagles and Packers.

At that 6.9-per-attempt number, Williams would have to throw it 31 times to reach 213 yards; he is averaging 32.8 on the season, reaching 31 attempts in nine games. Green Bay allows 6.3 yards per attempt, a mark that would require 34 attempts to reach 213 yards (Williams has reached 34 attempts eight times).

Wide receivers Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III are both out for this game, and tight end Cole Kmet and running back D'Andre Swift are questionable, leaving Williams' skill player coffers looking a little bare, though they do have good depth.

Advice: Bet Williams UNDER 212.5 passing yards. Our prop tool is projecting Williams at 205.1 yards, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him held under 200 again.