Week 12 Fantasy Football Trades: Michael Pittman, De'Von Achane and Deebo Samuel

Fantasy football trading is easy in theory, but very hard in practice. Plans to “buy low” or “sell high” only work if there is someone on the other hand willing to do the buying high and selling low. Thankfully, this is where the Fantasy Assistant comes in.

The Assistant uses predictive analytics to generate an Expected Trade Interest (ETI) for each player. The ETI leaders in a given week are the players whom you are most likely to be able to trade for or away. Here are those players for this week:

What's this? We have three genuinely good, relatively stable fantasy assets at the top of ETI? Normally, the most popular trade candidates have at least one factor causing real uncertainty — after all, it's easier to reach an agreement to trade a player when two reasonable managers can have a big disagreement over his “true” value. 

Week 12's top traded players — Michael Pittman Jr., De'Von Achane, and Deebo Samuel Sr.— don't fit that usual mold. That makes my job harder, as we have to really get into the weeds to determine what these players are worth. Never fear, though. That's what we're about to do, so let's get started. 

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Buy Michael Pittman

I was in on Pittman as a bounceback candidate coming into the season. Prior to playing last year with a historically inaccurate quarterback and a fractured back, the 27-year-old had always been an above-average target earner and a reliable fantasy option. He has returned to that form this season and, with the Colts' offense firing on all cylinders, it has translated to fantasy points.

Right now, Pittman is the WR12 with 12.3 half-PPR points per game. He has seen very solid usage, with a 21% target share and a 23% air yards share. He is outperforming his expected production slightly, but there's no reason to think he can't continue on as at least a high-end WR2 for the rest of the season. 

But, likely thanks to his low draft-season ADP and the general perception that he isn't an elite talent (which, to be fair, is accurate), Pittman's trade value still doesn't match his production. According to FantasyCalc's rankings, which are based entirely on real fantasy trades, he is just the WR19 and 46th player overall. KeepTradeCut's (KTC) crowdsourced rankings have him even lower, as the WR22 and 52nd overall player. 

One potential reason for caution is that the Colts have a tough schedule coming up, both in general and for the WR position in particular. But Shane Steichen has kept this offense rolling even in tough matchups — they have yet to score below 20 points all season, including a 29-point game against Denver and a 38-point game against the Chargers, both top-seven defenses by EPA per play.

Pittman isn't flashy and his name isn't sexy, but that's what makes him a sneaky buy-low to shore up your WR room heading into the fantasy playoffs. 

Buy De'Von Achane

Unlike with Pittman, I can't really make a compelling case that Achane is undervalued. He's a top-five RB and top-12 overall asset no matter where you look. With that in mind, this recommendation to buy isn't one about value — it's about strategy.

At this time of the season, the number one thing fantasy managers should prioritize is maximizing their starting lineup. And absolutely nothing helps improve your starting lineup more than adding a true stud, especially at the running back position. With elite usage both on the ground and through the air translating to an RB3 ranking in points per game, Achane is undeniably one of those true studs. 

Of course, truly elite players are often essentially impossible to trade for, especially without giving up your own elite asset in return. But Achane's high ETI indicates that there is at least a chance that some managers of Miami's RB1 might be willing to make a deal. Even if you have to “overpay,” if you can get Achane on your team without giving up a superstar of your own, I recommend heavily considering it. 

Hold Deebo Samuel

At first, I was tempted to make this a three-for-three “Buy” week. Samuel is comparable to Pittman as a solid veteran WR who is arguably undervalued compared to the production he has provided this season. He has averaged 11.5 half-PPR points per game this season, good for 18th among receivers. But he is the WR27 on FantasyCalc and the WR31 on KTC, a clear value.

However, trade values shouldn't exactly match up with production. And there are some reasons to be skeptical of Samuel's ability to maintain his current ranking for the rest of the season. For one, he's already slowed down significantly in recent weeks. Deebo started his Commanders career hot with four top-20 finishes in the first five weeks, including two top-five outings. Since then, he has recorded just one top-20 outing to go with three outside the top-40 receivers. 

This isn't just a production problem, as Samuel's underlying metrics have also fallen. In particular, his target share (26%-23%) and air yards share (22%-10%) have dropped off since the first five weeks. 

There's also the impending return of Terry McLaurin to consider, which could come as early as Week 13 after the Commanders' bye. I've always been skeptical of McLaurin as a target-earner, but he's definitely tougher competition than Chris Moore/Robbie Chosen/Jaylin Lane. In McLaurin's four active games, Samuel has averaged just 9.9 half-PPR points on a 22% target share and a 12% air yards share. Without him, those numbers are 12.5, 27%, and 20%.

This has been a lot of doubting, but the observant among you may have noticed that I listed Samuel as a hold, not a sell. At the end of the day, I think these issues are already priced into Samuel's consensus trade value. He's still a playmaker (14th among qualified WRs in YAC per reception) with a decent role on an offense that has been above average both with and without Jayden Daniels. That's not a profile you need to be in any hurry to move off of, even if I don't recommend rushing out to add him to your team, either.