Finding the Top Week 3 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Daniel Jones, Troy Franklin and More

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

This is a surprisingly quarterback-heavy week, as three of the top five players in EWI are passers. Beyond that, we have the usual mix of genuinely great pickups and guys who just happened to score a touchdown (or two) on Sunday. Read on for my breakdown of who deserves the hype and who you should leave for someone else in your league to add.

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WR Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos (55% EWI)

As I mentioned in my Week 3 wide receiver waiver wire breakdown, I'm definitely worried that Franklin's excellent usage on Sunday was another Sean Payton mirage.

But when a second-year player in an exciting offense with no clear WR2 has a game like that, we have to take notice. I wouldn't blow too much FAAB on Franklin, but he definitely deserves to be one of the top adds of the week.

QB Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (45% EWI)

When Jones finished as the QB2 overall in Week 1, it was easy to dismiss it as a fluke. After all, it was against the dreadful Dolphins, and a lot of his production came from two rushing TDs. Then he came out and dropped over 300 yards passing against the Broncos. 

At this point, we have to take Danny Dimes seriously as a fantasy QB1. He's always had good mobility, and Shane Steichen is making things very easily for him in the passing game — 84% of his throws have been intended for his first read, the second most among qualified QBs. If you had Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, or just a disappointing QB like C.J. Stroud, Jones is definitely worth adding. 

WR Elic Ayomanor, Tennessee Titans (34% EWI)

I recommended adding Ayomanor after Week 1, so I'm definitely on board with adding him now that he finished as a top-20 WR in Week 2. However, I wouldn't say Ayomanor is someone you can think about adding directly into your starting lineup. His route participation numbers still aren't ideal (74% in Week 1 fell to 56% in Week 2), and the Titans' offensive environment isn't either. 

As a rookie playing with a rookie quarterback, both of whom are already flashing, Ayomanor is definitely worth stashing. Just don't expect many more top-20 weeks in the near future. 

QB Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals (28% EWI)

Burrow is set to miss at least three months. In his absence, Browning is the Bengals' starting quarterback. He steps into an ideal fantasy situation, with two elite WRs, aggressive coaches, and a terrible defense.

In fact, Browning averaged 20 fantasy points across seven starts when Burrow was sidelined to finish 2023. I still prefer Jones, but the Bengals' backup is also a solid option who should be available in every league. 

QB Russell Wilson, New York Giants (28% EWI)

Russ is the third quarterback on this list, and I am far less interested in him than the previous two names. Yes, his Week 2 performance was awesome. But have we forgotten that there were already calls to bench him for rookie Jaxson Dart after Week 1?

He's worth adding in superflex if he is available, but that's about it. In 1-QB formats, there are plenty of more appealing names than Wilson, including both Browning and Jones.

RB Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams (24% EWI)

As I explained in my running back waiver article for this week, Corum is a worthwhile pickup, but we have to keep things in perspective. His 10.4-point outing in Week 2 doesn't mean he has standalone value, but his expanded role does help us feel more confident that he is the handcuff to roster behind Kyren Williams.

If you want a handcuff who is one injury away from potentially being a workhorse on a solid offense, Corum is your guy. If you want a starter for Week 3, look elsewhere. 

WR Hunter Renfrow, Carolina Panthers (24% EWI)

This is a classic case of chasing points. Yes, Renfrow scored 16.8 points on Sunday. It was mostly thanks to two TDs, but he did also see nine targets. However, have we forgotten that he was literally cut by these same Panthers less than a month ago? That's a glaring sign that the slot role will default back to second-year player Jalen Coker when he returns from IR.

Even before Coker returns, Renfrow is at absolute best the second target behind Tetairoa McMillan on what is looking like a very bad offense. Through two weeks, he has just a 16% target share for Carolina. It's not entirely out of the question that Renfrow, who is only 29 and has a top-12 season on his resume, ends up being a weekly fantasy option … but it is extremely unlikely.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers (24% EWI)

After leading the Steelers' backfield in snaps in Week 1, Gainwell fell behind Jaylen Warren for Week 2. Warren also saw far more work on the ground, with 14 carries to the former Eagle's five. However, Gainwell was the lead receiving back, with a 49% route participation rate and ive targets.

Meanwhile, rookie Kaleb Johnson played just two offensive snaps and committed a massive mental error on special teams. At this rate, his role isn't likely to start expanding any time soon. That leaves Gainwell secure as the RB2 (or maybe even 1B) for the Steelers. It's not exciting, but any back with a role like this should probably be rostered in most leagues. 

RB Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars (20% EWI)

Now we're talking. Tuten's EWI number is depressed by the fact that he is already rostered in 61% of leagues. But, if we do the math, it should actually be 39%, because the Jaguars' rookie should be rostered in all formats. 

With Tank Bigsby in Philadelphia, Tuten was the Jags' clear RB2 on Sunday. He handled eight carries and caught both of his two targets, taking one for an impressive touchdown. With receiving ability and elite explosiveness, Tuten was a very exciting prospect. Right now, he's behind Travis Etienne, but could Etienne just be the Rachaad White to his Bucky Irving? It's certainly worth the price of a waiver pickup to find out.