Texans' Fantasy Football Outlook: Should You be Drafting Joe Mixon Near his ADP? Who will Help Nico Collins in the Passing Game?

Let's knock off another fantasy football outlook by checking over the Houston Texans.

We looked at the Steelers, Packers, Titans, Panthers, Chiefs, Falcons, Jaguars and Commanders so far, and will cover other teams in the days and weeks to come.

Wish a real fantasy expert could break down your team, not just spit out generic advice? Now you can - get a personalized Team Breakdown, tailored for your exact league.

C.J. Stroud Fantasy Outlook

Stroud is looking for a bounceback season as he prepares for his third NFL season. He was great in his rookie season in 2023, but regressed in year two, posting worse numbers despite playing in two more games.

He finished with 3,727 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions as a passer. Stroud added 233 yards and no scores as a runner.

Stroud is QB19 and is being drafted around pick 138 so far. That's a fair spot for him to be after what happened last year, and I think it gives him plenty of room to surprise and be a draft steal.

He's just a late-round pick in standard leagues, but should be a streaming option right from week 1. There's a chance he indeed bounces back and becomes a weekly fantasy starting option again.

Treat him as a secondary option to begin the season, and only as a weekly starter in deeper leagues, or two-QB setups. If he becomes anything more than that, he'll be added off the waiver wire and start in a lot of standard leagues.

Stroud's career could take off after this season, or even fizzle out soon if he struggles again.

Running Back Fantasy Outlook

Joe Mixon is the team's starting running back, but he's dealing with an injury to kick off the season. Nick Chubb was brought in as a backup, and now he might be back in a lead back role again. Dameon Pierce and fourth-round pick Woody Marks are other secondary options.

Mixon is RB25 and is going around pick 60 so far. He's trending down because of the injury though. Mixon is on the non-football related injured reserve list.

Over 15 games last season, he had 1,325 yards and 12 total touchdowns. It was a great season, and continued a nice run for Mixon. He has at least 1,250 yards and nine touchdowns over the past four years.

He can be a top-end fantasy back if he's healthy, but injury concerns are starting to pop up more frequently. It makes Mixon a risky pick near his ADP, but he's also capable of outperforming that ADP by a lot, so there's enough upside to still take him.

The later you can land Mixon this year, the better I'd feel. I'd try to do my best to make him a secondary option in my fantasy backfield, not someone I expected to start every single week, or lead the way. Having him as a third back is where I like Mixon most.

Chubb is RB48 and going around pick 133. While Mixon is dropping, Chubb is trending up with his ADP.

He fizzled out in Cleveland, with injuries decimating his past two years there. The last full season he played was in 2022, when he had 1,764 yards and 13 total scores. 

Chubb isn't that player anymore, and in a secondary role in Houston, he's not going to come close to those numbers. Even if he started and led the backfield for 17 games, I doubt Chubb would ever get close to that 2022 season.

With Mixon's status up in the air, getting Chubb in fantasy drafts makes some sense. However, I wouldn't want his ADP to improve too much. There's some value in getting Chubb near his current mark, but too much more improvement will ruin the possible draft value he offers.

Get Chubb as a secondary fantasy option, and definitely look to add him if you got Mixon earlier in your draft. Chubb could end up being a decent flex option this season, although that would involve Mixon missing time.

Marks is the last Houston back on the ADP list. He's RB63 and going around pick 222 so far. 

I think there's a solid chance Marks leapfrogs Pierce and serves as the team's No. 3 fantasy back this season. He could carve out a role if Mixon or Chubb are out for an extended period, but unless both guys are injured, I don't see Marks starring this season.

Marks is worth a gamble in some deeper redraft leagues, but be prepared to stash him for most of the season. You're asking for injuries for him to become a big-time asset, so you shouldn't be expecting too much from the rookie in 2025.

Wide Receiver Fantasy Outlook

Nico Collins is the team's top fantasy wideout. Christian Kirk and rookie Jayden Higgins are the other projected starters, while Justin Watson, Jaylin Noel, Braxton Berrios, John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson are some other options. Tank Dell is going to likely miss the entire season, so there's some room for others to step in.

Collins is WR7 and is going around pick 14. I think that's far too early, and he's my least favorite second-round pick.

He played in 12 games last season, tallying 1,006 yards and seven scores over those contests. Collins has missed at least two games in each of his first four NFL seasons, and that's definitely a concern going into 2025.

With not many other proven pass catchers on the team, a defense could put more defensive attention on Collins to take him away. So between that and the injury concerns, I think he's going a touch too early in fantasy drafts.

I like him at or after pick 20, otherwise I'd let someone else draft him. A full healthy season could lead to a top-five fantasy finish, but I simply see him having a higher chance to bust than to live up to his current marks.

Higgins is WR53 and is going around pick 135 on average. Kirk is WR60 and going around pick 164.

Kirk fizzled out in Jacksonville and now is joining his third NFL team over eight years. He has gone over 1,000 yards just once, and he scored eight of his 29 total touchdowns that season.

I'm not a very big fan of picking Kirk in standard league drafts, but with very low risk attached, it's worth the gamble to some. I'd rather target Higgins a couple rounds earlier.

Higgins was a second-round pick this offseason, going 34th overall. With no Dell around, and Collins being the only one with a strong connection with Stroud, I could really see Higgins going off as a rookie.

I think he's going to blow past his ADP value by the end of the season, so I'd love to grab him around that mark, or even up to a round or more earlier. I love taking gambles on high-upside guys later in drafts, and Higgins is just that. He could end up being one of this year's biggest draft steals.

Noel is WR81 and is going around pick 271 on average. He's just a deep-league option, but for the same reasons I mentioned with Higgins, Noel could surprise this season.

The third-round pick could take away Kirk's starting role in time, or simply work his way onto the field more with good showings in practice or the preseason. Noel is a deep-league draft asset only, but could become a waiver wire target and flex option in standard leagues as the regular season moves on.

Dell is still on the ADP list, at WR92 and going around pick 303. I don't mind using a late pick on him in a redraft league in case he somehow comes back late in the season. There's not much talent left at that point of a draft anyways.

Just know it's highly unlikely that he takes the field this coming season.

Tight End Fantasy Outlook

Dalton Schultz is the projected starter for Houston. He's TE29 and is going around pick 230 on average.

He had 532 yards and two scores over 17 games last season, which was a step back from 2023, when he played in two fewer games. Even with Dell out, the extra wide receivers added probably doesn't bode well for Schultz.

He's off the standard league draft radar, but could bounce back and be a waiver wire and streaming option over time. I more see Schultz being a depth option in deeper leagues, then replaced in Houston if he doesn't do too much again.