Fantasy Football Week 9 D/ST Who Should I Start? Saints, Bengals, Eagles or Chargers?
Comparing the Saints' D/ST outlook to the Bengals, Eagles and Chargers.
The New Orleans Saints’ defense/special teams might have the best matchup of the week: The Carolina Panthers. There are other contenders, but I give Carolina the edge as the worst team in the league.
Some rankings for the Panthers’ offense heading into Sunday:
- 31st in yards per pass attempt
- 28th in offensive DVOA
- 32nd in total DVOA
- 8th in most fantasy points per week allowed to opposing D/STs
They are a little better running the ball (13th in yards per carry), but Carolina is a bottom team by nearly every measure. Every team has fantasy value against the Panthers, though the Saints have had their own struggles on defense:
- 31st in yards per carry allowed
- 25th in yards per pass attempt allowed
- 22nd in defensive DVOA
- 12th in fantasy points among D/ST
It hasn’t been pretty, and it’s worth considering benching the Saints’ D/ST despite the great matchup. New Orleans has shown up a lot on our “Who Should I Start?” tool, so I wanted to compare them to some of the other teams popping up with them to find the best fantasy options.
I’m using stats from NFL.com, DVOA rankings from FTN, and fantasy points and rankings from our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Bengals rank 10th in least yards per pass attempt allowed and 11th in yards per rush attempt. They’re just 25th in defensive DVOA, which implies they might not be as good as those averages suggest.
The Raiders have gained the seventh-least pass yards per attempt and second-fewest yards per rush attempt. They’re sixth worst by DVOA. I don’t need to give you much more: Las Vegas is one of the best fantasy matchups for defenses.
Saints or Bengals?
While DVOA doesn’t love Cincinnati, they have shown more success than the Saints on the defensive side. With each team having a good matchup, I’m going with Cincinnati’s slightly better performance.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
LA has allowed the ninth-least yards per pass attempt, but they struggle more against the run, ranking 26th in yards per carry allowed. Defensive DVOA pegs the Chargers as the eighth-best defense, falling more in line with their pass numbers.
The Browns have gained the fewest yards per pass attempt of any team. There’s reason to think that will improve, as Deshaun Watson is out for the year, and Jameis Winston is now the starting quarterback.
Cleveland is eighth worst in yards per rush and currently has the worst offensive DVOA in the league. It’s’ hard to project how things will be different in the long term under Winston, so we can only go on their season-long numbers.
Saints or Chargers?
The Browns looked good last week under Winston, but they were playing the Ravens, maybe the worst pass defense in football. A tougher matchup against the Chargers will give us a better idea of where they sit; I’m guessing Cleveland will still struggle and give Los Angeles a nice fantasy week.
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Philly has given up the seventh-fewest passing yards per attempt and 14th-least rush yards per attempt. Philly ranks 13th by defensive DVOA, falling in line with their statistics.
The Jags rank 14th in yards per pass attempt and seventh in yards per rush. Is it possible Jacksonville isn’t as bad as we think? They are right around the middle in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, and they rank out higher than average in DVOA.
Saints or Eagles?
The matchup here isn’t as good as the other three teams (Carolina, Las Vegas, and Cleveland). Jacksonville is probably best classified as “average,” so the defense sets its own fantasy ceiling.
Philadelphia is better than average on defense. I trust Philly’s D more than any of the others. I’ll lean toward the Eagles again despite the matchup maybe not being as good.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Rankings
I’ll rank all four teams for you, because why not? None of the four is too far from the others.
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Cincinnati Bengals
- New Orleans Saints
