Latest Mel Kiper Mock Draft Affected by Free Agency, Trades
After more than a week of shifting landscapes through signings and trades, Kiper's newest mock reflects how team needs have changed.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper released his newest mock draft (ESPN+ subscription required) on Tuesday, updating his projections after seeing the NFL Combine and factoring in free agency and trades made early in the offseason.
Several themes that were present around which positions each team would target have changed drastically after a busy first week of the new league year. I want to go through some of the picks that represent a different draft strategy than previously reported due to additions or subtractions that have been made.
This won’t include every pick, but I will focus on the ones that represent a new thought process from what popular opinion was before any moves were made.
5. Los Angeles Chargers – WR Malik Nabers, LSU
Early mock drafts were linking the Chargers with an offensive tackle to play opposite former first-round pick Rashawn Slater. After the release of Mike Williams and trade of Keenan Allen, though, LA has a huge hole at receiver.
Quentin Johnston was picked in the first round last year but failed to make an impact, recording only 38 catches for 431 yards and two touchdowns despite being active for every game. Joshua Palmer had the same number of catches and touchdowns with 581 yards in 11 games.
This wide receiver class is projected as one of the strongest in years, which is saying something considering the success young receivers have had recently. Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze are seen as top-10 picks with as many as 10 players worthy of first round consideration.
9. Chicago Bears – DE Jared Verse, Florida State
On the opposite side of the Allen trade, the Bears acquired the veteran receiver from the Chargers, creating a one-two punch with D.J. Moore that can contend with any in the league. Chicago’s pass catchers seem set, with a mid- or late-round pick more likely.
Before that trade, many were projecting Nabers or Odunze to the Bears to give presumed No. 1 pick Caleb Williams a full complement of targets. They could still consider an early receiver if they plan to let Allen leave in free agency after the season (he will turn 32 in April), but it’s more likely they target another position.
Some have linked Chicago to the left tackles (my preferred pick for the team) but upgrading the defense may be a better route after committing so many resources to the offense. They traded for Montez Sweat at the trade deadline and signed him to a contract extension, so an early pass rusher could line up opposite and create a young duo to terrorize quarterbacks.
Verse, Dallas Turner and Laiatu Latu are some of the top edge rushers in the class and would make the most sense if the Bears decide to add to their defense.
10. New York Jets – TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
The Jets have been tied to offensive line help since last offseason and were initially projected to draft someone like Penn State left tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu. They have upgraded both tackle spots since free agency started, trading for right tackle Morgan Moses then signing left tackle Tyron Smith.
It’s easy to assume New York will use the draft for instant upgrades to support Aaron Rodgers in what might be his last season. Bowers is seen as an impact receiver who will be among the best in the league at his position early in his career. Bowers or another top pass catcher makes sense for a team lacking skill position depth.
With Moses and Smith both aged and set to be free agents next year, the team could still grab a tackle in the first round and let him play inside for a year before taking over one of the spots on the edge.
13. Las Vegas Raiders – OT JC Latham, Alabama
Vegas had been tied to defensive tackle Byron Murphy from Texas with the reasoning that the interior defensive line was possibly their biggest need. The team filled that hole early in free agency by signing Christian Wilkins away from Miami and giving him over $80 million guaranteed.
The offensive line is the other area that clearly needs an upgrade, as the team has already lost their starting right tackle from last year and has a hole at right guard. Latham, Taliese Fuaga and Tyler Guyton are some of the top right tackle prospects in what’s seen as a very good class.
The Raiders were also tied to the second tier of quarterbacks: J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix and Michael Penix. The signing of Gardner Minshew is by no means the long-term solution, but it allows the team to operate without having to reach for a passer. One of those guys in the second round would be a much better value than the first.
19. Los Angeles Rams – DT Byron Murphy II, Texas
Speaking of Murphy, Kiper projected him as the replacement for Aaron Donald. Kiper wrote: “I didn’t have defensive tackle on my list of needs for the Rams…but that all changed Friday.” Friday is the day Donald retired.
Losing Donald doesn’t just create the absence of a starting player; Donald is one of the best defensive tackles in history and a player around whom a defense can be built. To expect Murphy to fill that hole is unrealistic, but he is maybe the best player at his position in the draft and has shown the ability to rush the passer.
Jer'Zhan Newton from Illinois was initially seen as a first-round lock but now is projected more in the second round. No other D-tackle prospect is near this level, so the Rams will have to hope Murphy falls to them if they want a Donald replacement.
29. Detroit Lions, WR Xavier Legette, South Carolina
I see this as unlikely, as the team has top-end pass catchers and more pressing needs elsewhere, but it’s more about the position not present here. The Lions had one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and upgrades at cornerback this offseason were a must.
They signed Amik Robertson and Khalil Dorsey as depth players, but the big splash was trading for Carlton Davis from Tampa Bay, an immediate starter who was priced out of Tampa. With a core now in place, Kiper pivoted to another position.
Cornerback and safety are still possibilities because of the need for multiple players on the field and in rotation. A long-term upgrade at corner is a solid investment regardless of the players already brought in.
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