NFL Prop Bet Analysis Week 18: Khalil Shakir, George Pickens, Allen Robinson
Ted takes a look at the best NFL prop bets to target according to FantasySP's tools for Week 18.
If your fantasy football season is over but you still want to get involved with Week 18's NFL action, there's no better way to do it than with some prop bets! Luckily, we have some awesome tools here at FantasySP to help you find the best prop bets each week. Our Prop Bet Finder compares lines across sportsbooks to our projections, highlighting lines that have the biggest percent difference between the two. And our Prop Rankings Tool has historical results for every player and every prop, both how they have performed relative to their lines and how often our projections beat the books.
Of course, betting in Week 18 is a whole different game than betting in most NFL weeks. Plenty of teams will be resting their stars with an eye towards the playoffs, while others have nothing to play for in a more depressing way. This also means there are simply far fewer lines available to choose fun. Luckily, our tools still make it easy to find the best of what's out there! We went three out of four relying on the tools last week, let's keep the hot streak going!
Want to make more winning bets? Check out our Player Prop Bet Research Tool, which makes it easy to find the best prop bets every week!
Top NFL Prop Bets Week 18
Khalil Shakir OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards
To be honest, I was a little suspicious when I first saw this line at the top of the Prop Bet Finder in projected difference. I've placed my fair share of Khalil Shakir bets this season, usually following one simple rule: If Dawson Knox is healthy, take the under, if he's out, take the over. Given that Knox has no injury designation heading into the Bills' must-win Week 18 matchup with the Dolphins, this seemed like the wrong call. However, we don't care about Knox being healthy because he has bad vibes. We only care about Knox's health so far as it affects Shakir's usage. And last week, even with Knox healthy, Shakir posted a very solid 76% route participation rate. Given that Shakir has an elite 1.72 yards per route run, I'm on board with the tool projecting Shakir for 34.7 yards, a full 42% higher higher than this line.
Allen Robinson UNDER 2.5 Receptions
First things first: I should acknowledge that this line is heavily juiced, with FanDuel offering a disgusting -180 to the under. But we took a similarly juiced line with Brock Purdy's passing touchdowns last week, and it worked out fine. I'm going to trust our tool here, which has Robinson projected for a whole reception fewer at 1.5. This pick also just makes sense: Robinson has gone under this line in nine of 16 games, and in a matchup where the Steelers will likely be facing some backups on Baltimore's defense, I don't see them having to rely on their third (or fourth) target that much.
George Pickens OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards
This is the flipside of taking the under on Robinson's line. I expect the Steelers to target their top target, Pickens, early and often in a game that means much more to them than the Ravens. Mason Rudolph also clearly likes targeting Pickens, having given the sophomore receiver a 35% target share across his two starts. There's also some other good reasons to trust the tool here. According to our Prop Bet Rankings, Pickens has hit his receiving yards over in 11 of 16 games this season, and our projections have come down on the right side of history for this prop at the same rate. Given that our projections think Pickens should finish with 58.5 yards (a solid 16% difference from his sportsbook line), I'm happy to trust them here.
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