Fantasy Football Strength Of Schedule: D'Andre Swift Could Be A League-Winner
As we enter the fantasy football playoffs, Ted looks at some players with good and bad matchups in the most crucial weeks of the season.
Welcome to the fantasy football playoffs!! Now is the time of year when matchups truly can matter. Getting even the smallest edge can be the difference between being a champion and an also-ran. Luckily, the FantasySP Strength of Schedule Tool is here to help us find players with the best (and worst) matchups in these all-important weeks. I took a look a couple of weeks ago at players to target down the stretch; now, let's find some players to target and avoid for the next three weeks of the fantasy football playoffs.
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Best Fantasy Football Playoff Matchups
Noah Brown/Robert Woods, Houston Texans
This duo gets "just" a B+ rating on our Strength of Schedule Tool, but things are setting up very nicely for Brown and Woods in the fantasy playoffs. Tank Dell has already been ruled out for the year, and Nico Collins will likely miss time with a calf injury. That leaves this duo as the top options for C.J. Stroud, who we all know has been lighting the world on fire.
In terms of matchups, the plan for these guys is simple: You definitely shouldn't start them in Week 16 against the Browns (which should be fine as they are waiver pickups), but they should be strongly considered against the Titans in Week 15 and Week 17. The Titans allow the eighth-most Half-PPR points per game to opposing receivers and have the fourth-worst defensive DVOA against the pass. The top two pass-catchers for the soon-to-be Offensive Rookie of the Year in must-win matchups against a terrible secondary? Sign me up.
D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
This one is pretty simple. Over the next three weeks, the Eagles face the Seahawks, Giants, and Cardinals. Those teams rank fifth, eighth, and second in Half-PPR points allowed to opposing running backs. Even coming off back-to-back fantasy duds (against two bottom-three matchups for the RB position), Swift is a near must-start in each of these matchups.
Kenneth Gainwell will continue to cut into his workload, especially on passing downs, and Jalen Hurts will continue to vulture goal-line TDs with the tush push. Luckily, these teams are especially susceptible to good old-fashioned RB runs, ranking second (Arizona), third (NY), and 11th (Seattle) in rushing yards per game allowed to opposing RBs. The Eagles are also likely to be heavily favored in each of these games, meaning they should lean on Swift to milk the clock. If you've got him, plug Swift into your lineup and hope he carries you to the promised land.
Worst Fantasy Football Playoff Matchups
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Tua has hovered around the fringe QB1 range all season, but he is not looking likely to finish the season strong. Our Strength of Schedule Tool grades Miami's quarterback matchups as the absolute worst of any team for the rest of the season, and I tend to agree. Over the next three weeks, Tagovailoa will be dropping back against the Jets (the worst fantasy matchup for QBs), the Cowboys (12th-worst), and the Ravens (second-worst). If you happen to be in a league that plays Week 18 (change your settings, btw), the Bills' defense is no pushover either.
It is true that Tyreek Hill is the kind of weapon that can break even the best defenses, and I'm certainly not going to recommend you bench him. But even he can't singlehandedly carry Tua to a solid fantasy day. If you have Tua, not to mention Jaylen Waddle, now is the time to start looking for other options.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Our Strength of Schedule Tool only gave out two D grades to the big three fantasy positions (QB, RB, and WR). One was for Miami's wide receivers heading into the gauntlet of a schedule I just mentioned, and the second was for the Giants' running backs, notably Saquon Barkley. Barkley gets three straight bottom-10 matchups for the running back position for the fantasy playoffs, including a game in Philadelphia against the toughest RB matchup in the league.
However, we all know that Barkley is one of the league's most talented running backs. Does it matter who he's facing? I think yes. Don't get me wrong, Saquon always has the potential to break a few big plays, even in the worst matchups. But he has had just three matchups all season against teams that allow a below-average amount of points to opposing running backs ... and he never scored more than eight Half-PPR points. The Cowboys (twice) and Patriots were able to bottle him up. The biggest reason for his lack of fantasy success was a hit to his volume, as the Giants' offense simply couldn't stay on the field and run the ball: In those three games, he averaged just 12.3 carries. In his other seven outings, he's averaged 21.1.
Before you say that that won't happen again now that Tommy DeVito has turned this offense around (this isn't true, but I've seen a shocking amount of people say it on Twitter), two of those games came with DeVito under center. Even after by far his best game of the season against the Packers on Monday, DeVito ranks eighth-worst among QBs in EPA per dropback, right between Mac Jones and Tyson Bagent. In three straight tough matchups, I expect the Giants' whole offense to struggle mightily, and I recommend thinking twice before automatically trusting Barkley with your championship hopes.
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