Identifying the Next Fantasy Football Running Back Asset | Will Latavius Murray, D'Ernest Johnson or Antonio Gibson be the Guy?

Discussing some possible fantasy football running back assets who are currently in backup roles.

Fantasy football owners are always trying to locate the next running back asset. I’m here to try to help.

Let’s take a look at three backup running backs that are trending in the right direction as the season begins to wind down.

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Backups on the Waiver Wire

The three guys I want to discuss are Buffalo Bills’ Latavius Murray, Jacksonville Jaguars’ D’Ernest Johnson and Washington Commanders’ Antonio Gibson.

In week 12, Murray actually played more offensive snaps (42) than starter James Cook (41). Cook still finished with 10 more touches, 22-12, but it was the third straight game that Murray has gotten double digit touches.

Murray rushed nine times for 30 yards and caught 3-of-5 targets for 18 yards. You’d like to see him be a bit more efficient, but he was actually the Bills’ most efficient guy in week 12.

Murray has attempted either nine or 10 rushes in each of the team’s past three contests. Two of those games, including week 12, were losses, so even with Josh Allen at quarterback, the team remains dedicated to the running game.

Travis Etienne is the clear leader in the Jacksonville backfield, but Johnson appears to have leapfrogged Tank Bigsby for the backup role. Johnson has five or more touches in each of the past three games, including eight the last two weeks.

Johnson rushed for 19 yards on seven attempts. He caught one of his two targets for 42 yards. Johnson ended up playing 30 offensive snaps, while Etienne was at 47 and Bigsby just two.

Again, Johnson wasn’t exactly efficient as a ball carrier, but his 42-yard reception helped boost his yards per touch. He’s at 6.8 yards or more per touch in each of the past three games.

Gibson returned from an injury and filled a similar role to previous contests. He got nine touches across 36 offensive snaps. Gibson had nine touches in his previous game and 11 touches before that contest.

Gibson played one more offensive snap than starter Brian Robinson, but Robinson finished with nearly double the touches (17). Gibson rushed six times for 21 yards and caught 3-of-4 targets for an additional 16 yards. 

Gibson’s 3.5-yard rushing average was right on pace with Robinson. He also produced a similar average as a pass catcher.

Running Back Fantasy Outlook

All three of the players in this discussion are on team’s with defined No. 1 backs in place. In today’s NFL, most teams utilize at least two backs, and Murray, Johnson and Gibson played enough snaps and got enough touches in week 12 to get some waiver wire love this week.

Murray is currently owned in just 37% of leagues. Johnson is rostered in just 2% of leagues, while Gibson is owned in 57% of fantasy leagues.

I’d say that Johnson is in the worst scenario behind Etienne, while Murray is in the best scenario behind Cook. Gibson is in the middle, but probably closer to Murray than Johnson in terms of his situation.

The Bills are still trying to figure things out on offense, and while Murray hasn’t been nearly as efficient a ball carrier as Cook has been, he continues to see plenty of work each game. He’s got as many touchdowns as Cook, but owns the edge in rushing touchdowns (3-1), which is something to keep in mind as you look to rack up as many fantasy points as possible late in the season.

Johnson has only recently started to carve out the backup role in Jacksonville, so the season numbers heavily favor Etienne on all fronts. In much less work, Johnson is only averaging 0.4 rushing yards less per carry than Etienne, while owning a much better yard per reception mark. I’m not sure Johnson will steal much red zone work from Etienne, so unless Johnson can break off some longer scoring runs, he’ll have to do most of his work outside the red zone.

Gibson is actually averaging 0.4 yards more per carry than Robinson this season, albeit in over 100+ less carries. Robinson also is dominating the work inside the red zone, so like Johnson, Gibson will need to do his work elsewhere. In PPR leagues, Gibson definitely has some extra value because of his pass-catching ability, but Robinson is averaging more yards per catch than he is.

If any of these three backs were to take over the lead role - without an injury being involved - I’d say that Murray has the best chance to do so. Given Murray is 33 years old, I’d think he’d still split the snaps and touches with Cook though.

Gibson should get plenty of work, but I don’t see him overtaking Robinson anytime soon. Etienne is the clear top back in Jacksonville, so at best, I see Johnson as a guy that can carve out a complementary role.

In terms of which back has the best matchups ahead, the new FantasySP strength of schedule page has Johnson at a B, and Murray and Gibson at Fs. If these were lead backs, I'd say those marks don't matter as much, but when we're talking backups, you'd like for their limited touches to be against poor defenses. 

Who to Target

Injuries play a big role in fantasy football, so stashing these guys on your bench is a good idea if they happen to be available in your league. In deeper leagues, Murray and Gibson are possible starting options right now, and Johnson is getting close to that level.

Given what I just said about their chances of taking over the lead role, I’d prioritize Murray over the other two, even knowing his tough schedule ahead. He's getting more consistent work than the other two backs, and that's too hard to overlook. If you own Cook, you need to be protecting him by adding Murray.

I’d go with Gibson over Johnson. If you roster Robinson, Gibson should be your priority this week. If you start Etienne, you need to be prioritizing Johnson, even though I’d take him last among these three running backs.

If your league still allows trades, I’d check out our trade value charts and see what it takes to add any of these backs, especially if you roster the team’s starter. It's never a bad thing to stash a bunch of backups on your bench. The bench becomes a lot less important after the bye weeks wrap up, and that happens after week 14.

It shouldn’t take much to acquire them, but it’s worth doing to protect yourself for the rest of the season. It might seem silly to some, but you don’t want a situation like the one with the Indianapolis Colts, where Jonathan Taylor got injured and Zack Moss ready to take over.

That scenario is what made me think about some of the other backups in the league, and is one all fantasy owners that hope to make deep postseason runs need to address before it's too late. If you try to wait until after an injury to grab the backup, you'll be fighting with every other member in your league on the waiver wire. Bite the bullet now and stash these guys on your bench to avoid the madness later on.

#waiver-wire #latavius-murray #dernest-johnson #antonio-gibson