FOXBOROUGH, MA - SEPTEMBER 17: New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) carries around end during a game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins on September 17, 2023, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)
We have already seen Jacobs' range of outcomes over the past two seasons. This is why fantasy owners have such differing opinions on him heading into this season. A move from Las Vegas to Green Bay only adds more volatility to the situation.
In 2022, he was incredible, leading the league with 1,653 yards and topping 2,000 yards from scrimmage while punching in 12 TDs. He has always been a volume guy, but he was much more efficient two years ago averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
Last year, he was mediocre at best, rushing for just 805 yards and scoring six TDs. Granted he played in just 13 games compared to when he played all 17. Still, he looked significantly worse on film and averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. You can't even chalk it up to the terrible team he was on because Zamir White performed excellently in that same offense when Jacobs was sidelined by injury.
There are plenty of concerns we have with him heading into this season as well. The Raiders ran him into the ground. Even though he is only 26, he has over 1,600 touches already, which is a massive cause for concern. There is a chance he doesn't see the volume or get the red zone opportunities on his new team, which could crush his fantasy value even if it is better for his career long term.
On the other hand, he could be exactly who the Packers thought they were getting in free agency that they let Aaron Jones go for. This is a better offense, better line and all-around better organization. If they get the most out of him and feed him the ball, he could end up as an RB1 once again this season.
Stevenson was a guy we were extremely high on heading into 2023 and we came away disappointed. Injuries piled up and he was in much more of a split backfield with Ezekiel Elliott than we had anticipated.
Zeke was able to steal both a ton of receiving and red zone work from Stevenson, which really capped his upside. However, he did still see 51 targets in 12 games after being targeted 88 times the year prior.
In 2024, Zeke will be gone, but the team has added Antonio Gibson. There is a chance he cuts into Stevenson's passing-down work. There is also a chance that he now sees a lot more goal-line work. Gibson being such a wild card only makes Stevenson tougher to judge.
He still has that RB1 upside, nevertheless, he could also finish outside of the top 20 running backs where he is currently being drafted. We still believe in him, but we can understand why some others wouldn't.
The demise of Mixon seems to be predicted each season. While he's not the athletic stud he once was, he still seems to always get the job done. He may be a plodder, but he's a valuable one for fantasy owners, and for the first time, we'll see him not in a Bengals' uniform this season. In 2023, he finished as the RB5 overall. It just doesn't feel like he's doing much when you watch him, nonetheless, those numbers add up.
On the other hand, he has slowed down and is on a new team with a lot of young weapons in the passing attack. The Texans could be much more pass-heavy this year.
Also, Dameon Pierce still looms. As a rookie in 2022, he was great, then was awful last season after missing time with an injury. If he comes back healthy or Mixon loses another step, it could be bad news for Mixon owners. At this point in his career, he needs the volume to be the fantasy asset you're hoping he can be.
Last season, Kamara finished as the RB3 in average PPG in PPR leagues. He was a subpar running back but was the team's top target in the passing game. It is evident that he is declining and can't make the explosive plays he once did. That doesn't matter if they throw to him constantly again this season.
The question is, how long can he keep this up and how long do they keep letting him play such a huge role? The offense wasn't good when they just kept dumping it off to him and Kendre Miller could take over as the primary rushing back. That's not that huge of a concern because Kamara has been in split backfields most of his career.
The way this offense looked with him as the centerpiece is what worries us. If the Saints go away from him in the passing game, his fantasy points will plummet, making him almost useless. If they continue to go to him, as we saw last season he can be a high-end RB1 in PPR leagues.
