Ravens Fantasy Football Running Back Breakdown | Should You Be Adding Keaton Mitchell, Trading Gus Edwards and Dropping Justice Hill?

The Baltimore Ravens backfield continues to puzzle fantasy owners. Week 9 of the season might have made the situation as murky as ever.

Justice Hill got the most touches in the team’s rout of the Seattle Seahawks. Gus Edwards scored a pair of touchdowns, but had the least amount of touches. Keaton Mitchell got the second-most touches, but produced way more yardage than the other two backs combined.

So how should you be approaching the Baltimore trio? Let’s dive in.

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Week 9 Breakdown

Edwards and Hill have shared the backfield since early in the season, when J.K. Dobbins was lost with an injury. They’ve split carries and each has had their fair share of solid fantasy outings. 

Mitchell was injured to start the year and actually didn’t have a single carry coming into the contest. The Ravens gave him his first carries in the second quarter and he helped spark a touchdown drive.

Mitchell finished with nine carries, 138 yards and a touchdown. Along with a 40-yard touchdown run, the undrafted rookie broke off a 60-yard run. He caught a pass, but the reception lost 4 yards.

Edwards appeared to be the leader when it came to Baltimore’s backfield coming into the game, especially after tallying 238 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns over the past two contests.

Edwards scored two more times against Seattle, but only got five carries in all. He rushed for 52 yards on those runs, including 3- and 4-yard touchdowns and a 42-yard burst.

Hill had pretty consistently been producing 30-55 scrimmage yards a game for the Ravens, despite not getting too many touches. He had received just four carries over the team’s past two games coming into the matchup with the Seahawks.

Hill finished with 13 carries on the day, going for 40 yards. Six of the carries came in the fourth quarter as the team tried to run out the rest of the clock. He had a long run of 9 yards and failed to haul in his only target.

Hill played 48 offensive snaps, which was 63% of the team’s total. Mitchell and Edwards played 14 snaps each, which was just 18% of the team’s total.

Ravens Backfield Fantasy Outlook

The lopsided score didn’t help fantasy owners get a true idea of what the backfield will look like going forward, but Mitchell’s strong showing definitely is going to complicate things some more.

All in all, if you started Edwards and Hill, you were probably pretty pleased with their fantasy showings. Edwards hardly got any work, but his two touchdowns boosted his point total way up. Hill produced fairly well for a guy in a secondary role, scoring a similar amount of points to previous weeks.

If you somehow started Mitchell this week, then kudos to you. He’s a guy I wrote about several weeks back about potentially carving out a role this season, but this performance truly came out of nowhere.

Again, the lopsided score shifted how the Ravens approached the game, so it’s hard to know exactly how things might look going forward. All we can really do is take some educated guesses based on how week 9 went.

Even though Hill led the team in carries, I don’t think that’s going to happen too many other weeks - unless Baltimore keeps blowing its opponents out. He’ll get a few touches here and there, but with most of his week 9 carries coming late in the game, I just don’t envision his role expanding beyond what it has been these past several weeks. If anything, I could see his role shrinking a bit, so he’ll have to break a long run or two, or score, to reach some of the fantasy outputs he has in the past few games.

Edwards I believe will retain his lead role with the team. The blowout simply allowed the Ravens to rest Edwards and get longer looks at Mitchell and Hill. Edwards has scored six times over the past three weeks, so he clearly has the team’s trust and is getting plenty of goal line work. Even if he doesn’t get 20 touches a contest every week, his ability to find the end zone keeps him a strong fantasy option.

Then there’s Mitchell, who is truly the wild card of the position. It’s hard to know exactly what kind of role he might take on after not getting any carries coming into the contest. His strong showing should get him some work in the weeks to come though, and if he’s able to break off a long run, he’s also a pretty strong fantasy option.

How to Proceed with the Trio

Let’s start this section off by saying Edwards is owned in just about every fantasy league. Hill is owned in 42% of leagues, while Mitchell appeared in just 4% of leagues going into week 9.

Mitchell’s numbers are sure to skyrocket before week 10 kicks off, and I think you have to try to claim him, unless you don’t have anyone less valuable to drop. 

I could see Hill’s own percentage dropping down a bit, maybe to around 35%. I personally would try to avoid dropping him right now, especially in a deeper league. The perception on this backfield seems to change week to week, and Hill could be the lead guy in a couple weeks. I don’t think that’ll happen, and truly believe he’s going to be the third-best fantasy back most often going forward, but I’d wait at least one more week before moving on.

Edwards is probably going to be a pretty popular name in the trade analyzer this week. It’s fair to have your doubts about him going forward, and his touchdown spree over the past couple weeks has his stock as high as it's been all year. 

It’s hard to tell you to trade Edwards or not, simply because it’s so difficult to know what to expect. I would say to dangle Edwards out there on the trade block and see what kind of offers you get. If you get an offer that you like, I would take it and lose the headache of dealing with a Ravens’ back.

If you don’t get a great offer, then I’d just hold on to Edwards and see how things shake out. He shouldn’t have been a super high draft pick of any fantasy team, so it’s not like benching him if his production and value dips is a horrible thing. 

In terms of which guys are start worthy moving forward, I’m only comfortable looking at the next contest. That’s a matchup with the Cleveland Browns.

It’s a tough matchup on paper, as Cleveland is one of the stingier run defenses in the NFL. The teams played back in week 4, with the Ravens blowing the Browns out, 28-3. Edwards had 48 rushing yards on 15 carries, while Hill went for 33 yards on three carries.

I’d expect another tough day for the Baltimore backs, and only feel comfortable starting Edwards in standard leagues. He’s probably safe enough to start in your final RB slot, but at the very least is a good flex option. 

I usually like to see at least two weeks of something before being able to trust it. This tough matchup against the Browns allows for that to happen, so I wouldn’t start Mitchell or Hill in standard leagues. I’d give them both flex consideration in deeper leagues, however.

This is a situation that is probably going to be fluid, and one we tackle almost every week. Check back to see if any of these backs are part of start/sit articles before week 10 kicks off, and then check back in the weeks to come to see how the situation is progressing.