Saints’ Week 4 Target/Touch Breakdown: A 1-Week Blip for Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave Because of Derek Carr’s Injury, or Cause for Concern?

The New Orleans Saints surprised a lot of people on Sunday when they started injured quarterback Derek Carr against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. New Orleans believed Carr was healthy enough to play in a big NFC South matchup.

Carr appeared to make it through the game fine, but it didn’t help the Saints, as they lost 26-9.

There were some statistics from the contest that has some fantasy owners wondering whether Carr’s injury was to blame or if it’s a bigger cause for concern. Let’s discuss.

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Derek Carr’s Down Day

Carr attempted 37 passes in the contest, completing 23 for just 127 yards. He wasn’t intercepted, but he didn’t throw a touchdown either. He was sacked twice and lost a fumble.

I decided to take a look at Pro Football Reference and some of their advanced passing statistics to see if Carr was being limited because of his injury.

Carr had 282 intended air yards, which was nearly the exact amount he had back in week 2 when fully healthy. His intended air yards per pass attempt was also nearly what it was in week 2. Carr’s completed air yards number was just 11 in week 4, a far cry from the 165 in week 2 or 202 in week 1.

Carr was docked for nine bad throws, up three from weeks 1 and 2. He was blitzed seven times and pressured three times. The blitz numbers were less than in weeks 1 and 2, while his pressures also went down a bit.

What that all tells me is that while Carr was playing, the injury played some kind of role in his down passing day. There isn’t too much I’d be worried about with Carr, as long as he’s able to heal up properly. 

Alvin Kamara’s Odd Showing

Alvin Kamara made his season debut for the Saints after serving a three-game suspension. The team utilized him heavily on offense, with 11 carries and 14 additional targets in the passing game.

Kamara rushed for 51 yards on his carries. Tayson Hill got the next most attempts, going for 10 yards on four carries. 

The veteran back caught 13 of his 14 targets, but they went for just 33 yards. He had a long reception of 10, meaning 12 catches went for 23 yards. If you’re thinking that’s a highly unusual set of numbers, it is.

While his overall yardage wasn’t all that great, those that play in PPR leagues thought Kamara was a star. You definitely cannot expect Kamara to get 13 receptions a contest - which I think was aided by Carr’s injury - but his overall 24 touches seem like a pretty solid guess as to the kind of workload he’ll get on a weekly basis.

He played 38 more snaps than any other true running back on the team. New Orleans also was playing from behind most of the contest, which shows Kamara doesn’t need a lead to be an effective fantasy player.

Wide Receivers Almost Nonexistent 

New Orleans has a strong trio of wide receivers in Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed, but they were all held in check against Tampa Bay.

The biggest surprise of the trio was Olave, the team’s top receiving threat. Olave was targeted six times, but made just one catch for 4 yards. 

Coming into the game, Olave’s worst showing in his career was three catches for 40 yards. In games with six or more targets in his career, Olave had at least four catches. His worst ever catch percentage in a game was 38.5, so his 16.7 number he put up was a new career low by quite a bit.

Olave had 10 or 11 targets in the first three contests of the season, and at least six catches in each game. His history of production suggests this game was an outlier, and I’d agree that it was.

Thomas had the best day of the trio, catching four of the six passes thrown his way for 53 yards. His four receptions were second to only Kamara.

While it was an otherwise down day for the team’s other relevant fantasy players, Thomas proved to be the only one to still put up a respectable outing. He’s been one of the more consistent receivers to this point, albeit with average numbers. Thomas has between 50-61 receiving yards in all four games. 

His targets were two fewer than in any other game this season, but he still came through with a solid showing. This showing should make owners that roster him in PPR leagues feel extremely confident in starting him every week. For the non-PPR leagues, Thomas hasn’t really shown a whole lot to feel confident in starting him moving forward.

Shaheed was the most-targeted wide receiver on the team against the Buccaneers. He finished with three grabs on seven targets and went for 33 yards. 

It was a bounce back from a no-catch performance in week 3, but still a ways off from his week 1 (five catches, 89 yards and a touchdown) and 2 (four catches, 63 yards) showings. Shaheed did find some more success in the return game, with a 22.5-yard average on punt returns.

Unless your league rewards returners heavily, Shaheed should still be on the outside looking in when it comes to determining whether or not to start him in redraft leagues with 8-12 teams. One thing to note is that his two down games receiving came when Carr was hurt, so a return to full health could mean bigger things are in store for Shaheed.

Final Thoughts

After looking at some of the advanced numbers and game logs from the two weeks Carr was fully healthy in, I’m fairly comfortable saying that some of the odd numbers that came out of the team’s loss to the Buccaneers were mainly because of Carr’s injury.

It might take a bit for Carr to get back to nearly full health, so another week or two of down showings could result. I don’t expect nearly the same kind of numbers to come about again, especially Kamara’s high catch total and Olave’s near goose egg. 

A clash with the New England Patriots in on deck for New Orleans. New England’s defense has been elite against opposing quarterbacks and average against running backs and wide receivers so far.