Fantasy Baseball Bounceback Pitcher Candidates: Aaron Nola, Yu Darvish, Nestor Cortes, Lance Lynn, Shane Bieber and More

Discussing some MLB pitchers who had down seasons in 2023, making them bounceback candidates for 2024

While the MLB season can be a long one, there’s players who have uncharacteristically down seasons every year. Today, I wanted to look at some of those players from the 2023 season. These are players I believe are capable of bounceback seasons.

We’ll focus on pitchers only in this story after already looking at the hitters.

Get ready for draft season! Check out our Mock Draft Simulator, Average Draft Position list and Draft Genius!

Aaron Nola Fantasy Outlook

Nola is one of the better fantasy pitchers in the game, but struggled last season. His earned run average rose to 4.46 in 2023 after being 3.25 in 2023. 

Nola still ate a ton of innings and struck out a bunch of batters, so he was still a good fantasy asset. If he can get back closer to his ERA of 2023, or his career mark of 3.72, he could be one of the top fantasy pitchers in the game.

He won’t be easy to acquire, but I also don’t anticipate his value being much lower than it is now.

Jameson Taillon Fantasy Outlook

Taillon had a rough go of things in his first season with the Chicago Cubs. He had a 4.84 ERA across 30 appearances (29 starts). Despite all those starts, he only covered 154 1/3 innings, with 140 strikeouts along the way.

He was coming off a season in which he went 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA and 151 strikeouts over 177 1/3 innings. I’d have thought his numbers would have improved pitching in the weaker NL Central, but things didn’t work out that way.

Taillon has a career 4.00 ERA, and even improvement to close to that mark would do wonders for Taillon as a fantasy asset. He’s also injured to start the season, which certainly could affect him on the hill.

Lance Lynn and Miles Mikolas Fantasy Outlooks

Let’s put two St. Louis Cardinals starters into one section.

Lynn made 32 starts between the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers in 2023, combining for a 5.73 ERA and 13-11 record while striking out 191 over 183 2/3 innings. He has a career 3.74 ERA across 12 MLB seasons, so last year certainly was an unforeseen down year.

He gets a chance to rebound with the Cardinals, and although he’s going to turn 37 years old during the season, it’s hard to imagine things going much worse for him. He pitched for the Cards from 2011-17, posting a 3.38 ERA over that span, so maybe familiar surroundings can help him have a big bounceback season. The ERA was really the only thing that hurt him last season.

Mikolas went 9-13 with a 4.78 ERA across 35 starts in 2023. He struck out just 137 batters in 201 1/3 innings pitched. In 2022, Mikloas was 12-13 with a 3.29 ERA and 153 strikeouts over 202 1/3 innings pitched.

So the big difference again was the ERA. If Mikolas can get closer to his 2022 season, or even his 3.93 career ERA, you’re talking about a much better fantasy asset. He’s not a huge strikeout guy, but he can eat innings with the best of them.

Lynn and Mikolas are players you can get later in fantasy drafts and should be able to acquire for fairly cheap if you already had your draft.

Yu Darvish Fantasy Outlook

Darvish saw his production fall off big time in 2023. After going 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in 2022, Darvish was 8-10 with a 4.56 ERA in 2023. He made six less starts, which explains the nearly 60-inning and 60-strikeout decrease from 2022.

Darvish has a career 3.59 ERA, which is nearly a point lower than last year’s mark. He might not be able to lower the mark that much as he ages (he’s 37 now), but I do expect him to improve at least a little bit. 

A little improvement in ERA and making a full season of starts would help Darvish improve his numbers across the board. 

Robert Suarez Fantasy Outlook

Suarez is the closer for the San Diego Padres. He only pitched in 26 games in 2023, but also didn’t get any saves. A lot of that had to do with a rough 4.23 ERA and only striking out 24 batters over 27 2/3 innings.

In 2022, Suarez struck out 61 batters over 47 2/3 innings, going 5-1 with a 2.27 ERA that season. Reverting back to a similar ERA could not only help him retain the closer role, but also make him one of the best fantasy relievers in the game.

Alek Manoah Fantasy Outlook

Manoah’s falloff from 2022 to 2023 was wild. He went 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA in 2022 before going 3-9 with a 5.87 ERA in 2023.

He made 31 starts in 2022, striking out 180 over 196 2/3 innings. Manoah struck out 79 over 87 1/3 innings in 19 starts last season.

He’s dinged up to begin this season, but even after last season’s rough numbers, it’s hard to ignore what he did in 2022. He’s not going early in drafts, which makes him a low-risk pick, and a player you could pretty easily acquire if you are looking for some rotation depth with the chance of breaking out.

Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes Fantasy Outlook

Rodon and Cortes had injury-riddled, tough seasons in 2023, and are now going to be looked to for strong starts to the season with Gerrit Cole injured.

Rodon was 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA across 14 starts last season. He went 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA across 31 starts with the San Francisco Giants in 2022. Rodon struck out 237 batters over 178 innings that year, so if he can lower the ERA and stay healthy for close to the full season, he’s got the chance to be this year’s biggest bounceback player.

Cortes only made 12 starts last season, going 5-2, but with a 4.97 ERA. In 2022, he was 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA and 163 strikeouts over 158 1/3 innings in 28 starts. He also pitched well in 2021, so I like his odds of bouncing back in 2024.

Reid Detmers Fantasy Outlook

Detmers wasn’t bad in 2023, but he didn’t improve like many people expected him to. He was 7-6 with a 3.77 ERA in 2022, only to go 4-10 with a 4.48 ERA in 2023.

After averaging less than a strikeout per inning in 2022, he finished with 20 more strikeouts than innings pitched in 2023, so that’s definitely a positive. If Detmers can put it all together in one season, he’s got a chance to not only be a massive draft steal, but be one of the better fantasy pitchers in the league.

Shane Bieber Fantasy Outlook

Bieber was one of the best starting pitchers in the league in 2022, but fell off in 2023, with injuries playing a big part in that. Bieber went 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA in 2022, but was 6-6 with a 3.80 ERA in 2023 across 21 starts.

Bieber had 198 strikeouts over 200 innings in 2022, but just 107 Ks over 128 innings last year. If he can lower his ERA again, and get in a full season of starts, he could also vie for that “best bounceback player” honor this season.

If you hope to acquire him, it might need to happen soon, as I don’t expect his value to be much lower than it currently is.

Joe Ryan Fantasy Outlook

Ryan’s ERA rose nearly a full point from 2022 to 2023. He went 11-10 last season with a 4.51 ERA across 29 starts after being 13-8 with a 3.55 mark in 2022.

Ryan’s strikeout numbers also improved in a big way, so much like Detmers, if he can piece things together, he’s got a chance to be one of the better fantasy arms in the league.

#2024-fantasy-baseball-draft