Fantasy Baseball Injury Analysis: Devin Williams, Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman
Discussing three big-name pitchers who are dinged up coming into the 2024 season and what players to target until they are back in action.`
The MLB season is a long one, so it’s no surprise there’s a ton of injuries to deal with along the way.
While spring training allows players to get geared up for the season, or earn a roster spot, it also means there’s a chance for more injuries.
Let’s take a look at some of the bigger-name players that are dealing with injuries at the start of the season.
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Devin Williams Fantasy Outlook
It was recently revealed that the Milwaukee Brewers closer had two stress fractures in his back, which will force him to miss around three months. Williams will be out of action for six weeks, and then the top-end reliever will have to ramp back up after that.
Williams had been the first closer off fantasy draft boards, according to FantasySP Average Draft Position data, so for the fantasy leagues that already drafted, this is a massive blow. His ADP will drop considerably in the last few days before the regular season.
With Williams out for three months, I’m not sure what point of a fantasy draft I’d be comfortable taking him at. I’d personally look elsewhere for a fantasy closer, but Williams could be worth a roster spot if he falls to around pick 200 or so.
As for guys who could replace Williams, the Brewers don’t seem to be committing to one player, at least at this point.
Abner Uribe is a power arm, and looks like the most logical choice, but is just 23 years old. Joel Payamps was a setup reliever last season for the Crew and is a little more MLB seasoned. Trevor Megill is yet another power arm that could get some save chances.
I think Uribe is the team’s future closer, so I’d guess he gets the first chance at saves to open the season. I don’t think he exclusively will get the ninth-inning work and think Payamps and Megill will both get some chances.
If I still had a fantasy draft coming up, I’d take a chance on Uribe later in the draft - at the very least, he’ll get some high-leverage innings and a chance for a lot of holds. Payamps and Megill would be options for me in deeper fantasy leagues - those guys will at least have chances to get holds, with the chance for a few saves as well.
Gerrit Cole Fantasy Outlook
Cole is dealing with a right elbow issue right now. There’s some conflicting reports out there, but he's at least out for the entire month of April. He will not need Tommy John surgery, which is the most important thing, but he’s also supposed to be out 10-12 weeks.
Cole had been the first starting pitcher off draft boards, and now has dropped behind Spencer Strider into the No. 2 slot. Cole should continue to slide down draft boards, especially with an uncertain return date.
If Cole only misses April, there’s still several months to make a fantasy impact. I’d probably start considering Cole around pick 35 or so, but be most comfortable with him around pick 50 or so.
The No. 1 starting spot will only be filled by one guy, but really there’s several starters that will need to pitch well to make up for Cole being out of commission.
Nestor Cortes is the team’s projected No. 1 starter now, with Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman also being veteran arms that will need to cover some innings. Clarke Schmidt was also projected to be in the rotation going into the season.
Clayton Beeter appears poised to get the open rotation spot, so he could be a streaming option to start the season. I wouldn’t target Beeter in drafts outside of deeper leagues, but he could be a decent streaming option with a talented offense to back him up.
Kevin Gausman Fantasy Outlook
Gausman looks likely to open the season on the injured list because of right shoulder fatigue. It’s not believed to be a long-term injury, but a 15-day stint on the IR would mean Gausman likely misses two starts at the beginning of the season.
The Blue Jays have plenty of veteran arms in their rotation, who should help minimize the void left by Gausman being out. Jose Berrios, Chris Bassit and Yusei Kikuchi are the top three arms in the rotation. Bowden Francis was also likely to make the starting rotation, and now should be locked into a spot with Gausman (and Alex Manoah) out.
Mitch White, Chad Dallas, Paolo Espino, Wes Parsons and top prospect Ricky Tiedemann are other starting options for the start of the season.
Again, guys like Francis, White, Dallas, Espino, Parsons and Tiedemann are just streaming options - I wouldn’t even waste a late draft pick on them because Gausman isn’t expected to be out more than a couple weeks of the regular season.
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