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Outlook Tyler Phillips
Tyler Phillips slots in as a mid-rotation option for Miami, but major regression risks limit his weekly appeal.
Phillips has locked down a key role as the number three starter in the rotation for the fourth-place Marlins, who are currently riding a two-game win streak. His spot is secure with Eury Perez and Janson Junk on the injured list, but his recent form is highly concerning. Over his last two outings spanning 9.2 innings, he has stumbled to a 5.87 ERA and a bloated 1.85 WHIP.
Though his current 2.20 ERA on the year looks elite, a closer look reveals massive regression risks, highlighted by a high 1.44 WHIP and 22 walks in 41.0 innings. Our season projection models expect him to finish with a 4.37 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 70.0 innings. His current success is unsustainable unless he drastically limits base runners.
Phillips is lined up for a single home start on June 11 against the Diamondbacks and Merrill Kelly, who carries an elevated 5.71 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. While the matchup against a struggling starter is soft, our weekly projection expects just 5.0 innings with minimal strikeout impact. Given his terrible recent WHIP, he cannot be trusted in active lineups. Verdict: Sit.
Updated 10 hrs ago
