Breakout or Fluke? Analyzing Fantasy Football Standout Performances from Week 4: George Pickens, Woody Marks and More

It's time to dive back into the fantasy football breakout or fluke series.

We'll go over some surprising fantasy performances from week 4 and determine if they were breakout showings or flukes. We'll look at two quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.

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Wide Receivers

George Pickens and Romeo Doubs are the two wideouts we will discuss after week 4.

Pickens was the Cowboys' No. 1 receiver with CeeDee Lamb out with an injury. He had a tough matchup against the Packers, but delivered a monster fantasy outing after hauling in eight of his 11 targets for 134 yards and two scores.

He had 68 yards and a score on five catches and nine targets in each of the previous two games, so he's been trending up for a while now. With Lamb out, Pickens' value is certainly higher, and while he might not match what he did on Sunday night in every game without Lamb around, I'd have no issues starting Pickens after what he showed.

When Lamb comes back, I see Pickens more as a flex-level option, but probably capable of starting more often than not. That makes Pickens a player to go after, although you might want to wait until Lamb comes back, as his fantasy value is as high as it might be all season right now.

That makes now a perfect time to sell high on Pickens if you are set at receiver.

Doubs caught six of his eight targets for 58 yards, but scored three touchdowns to deliver a monster fantasy score.

He had 25 and 28 yards over his previous two games, so it was nice to see Doubs add a bit more yardage this week. Doubs was still really touchdown-dependent with his fantasy score, so while I think Doubs is a solid weekly starting option, I don't see him continuing at nearly the same level he did in week 4.

Doubs is more a trade option in deeper leagues, and it's a great time to sell high on him. The Packers still are searching for a No. 1 receiver, so his results are likely to be inconsistent.

As for wanting to go after Doubs in standard leagues, there's some logic to that move. I see him as more as a flex-level option, not a locked-in fantasy starter, so depending on what you need, Doubs could be a decent pickup.

Running Backs

Justice Hill and Woody Marks are the two backs I want to talk about today.

Hill got just eight touches in week 4, but they went for 117 total yards and two touchdowns. He rushed three times for 76 yards and a score, including a 71-yard scamper. Hill caught five of his six targets for 41 yards and another score.

He has just 20 touches on the season, but averages 8.8 yards a touch and now has the two scores. Hill has played just 48.6% of the team's offensive snaps through the first four weeks.

Baltimore is 1-3, so it wouldn't be crazy to see them shake things up and maybe try to get a guy like Hill more involved. Really, I think they need to lean more on Derrick Henry. Anyways, I only see Hill as a viable fantasy asset in deeper leagues for now.

He's a boom-or-bust fantasy asset, which only makes him a good starting option in a pinch in those deeper leagues. He's not a bad handcuff to Henry all of a sudden, but it'd take a multitude of injuries, and in at least a slightly larger than standard league to get Hill into fantasy starting lineups.

Marks broke out in week 4, rushing 17 times for 69 yards and a score. He also had 50 receiving yards and a second score on four receptions and five targets.

He played 56.3% of the team's offensive snaps, which was his highest mark of the season. Marks' usage has increased each week, and after the Texans finally won, it'd make sense to keep using Marks going forward.

I think there's a real chance that Marks is here to stay as a fantasy asset, and I think he'll maybe become the workhorse in that Houston backfield, especially if Joe Mixon cannot play. 

You should be all-in on Marks as a fantasy asset as a result. That means adding him in all fantasy leagues if he's still available. If he's already rostered, see what type of deal it would take to land the Texans' back.

I think his value is only going to rise from here, so get on the hype train before it's too far ahead to ever catch up.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller and Jake Tonges are the tight ends we will discuss today.

Waller played his first game of the season on Monday night, and he made the most of his limited snaps. He caught three of his four targets for 27 yards, but scored two times to deliver a monster fantasy score.

He played just 16 offensive snaps, but you can expect that to increase as he gets ramped up. Remember, he was retired, so he needs a little more time to settle back in.

Waller might need to really increase his snap count in his second game after the season-ending injury to Tyreek Hill. Miami needs more pass catchers, and Waller could be a guy who steps up.

I'm not saying he's going to catch two touchdowns every week, but he should be involved plenty, and it could lead to some nice fantasy showings. Add him if you are looking for some tight end help, and you might just solidify the TE spot for the rest of the year.

Tonges had his best game of the season on Sunday, catching three of his five targets for 58 yards and a score.

He played 68.2% of the team's offensive snaps, which was actually his lowest mark since week 1, when George Kittle got injured. As long as Kittle is out, you can expect Tonges to remain pretty involved.

He's a better option in deeper leagues, but as bye weeks set in, utilizing Tonges at an already weak TE spot isn't the craziest idea. 

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford were the top-scoring quarterbacks, so let's discuss both of them.

No Lamb, no problem for Prescott, who threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns on Sunday night. He completed 77.5% of his passes and also rushed for a touchdown.

It was easily his best game of the season, and it came in a tough matchup against the Packers. Prescott now has six touchdowns and three interceptions over his past three games, and at least 250 passing yards in each contest.

I wouldn't expect him to play as well as he did in week 4 every time out, but fantasy owners don't need to worry all that much about Prescott after this performance, and without Lamb. He'll be ranked a lot higher going into week 5. 

Stafford had his best showing of 2025, and it came in a tough test against the Eagles. He was 29-of-41 passing for 375 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He has at least 196 passing yards in every game, and at least one TD pass - he's thrown multiple touchdowns in three straight games.

He might be aging, but on this Rams' offense, Stafford still has fantasy value you can take advantage of. He's just outside the top 10 at the QB position on the season, and with bye weeks and injuries mounting, he probably should be starting in most leagues every week.

He's more trustworthy than some younger, less experienced quarterbacks, and can be utilized regardless of the matchup.