Geno Smith Traded to the Raiders: What it Means for the Raiders, Seahawks and DK Metcalf

Geno Smith has been traded to the Las Vegas Raiders for a third-round pick (92nd overall). This is a major shift for both Seattle and Las Vegas, two teams in very different places but with a common link in new Raiders coach Pete Carroll.

This is surely just the first in a series of moves for both teams, so while we can make instant reactions, it all won't come together until we see at least free agency and maybe even the draft play out. With such a major shift, many questions pop up for both teams.

Let's look at some of the biggest ripple effects of this move and what each team might be looking to do next. Most stats used below are from NFL.com.

Do the Raiders think they can win?

Carroll turns 74 in September; he probably didn't sign on for a long rebuild. He still looks young at heart, but you know what they say about father time. Vegas has now made major upgrades at two of the most important pillars of the organization, the type of moves that helped Washington jump from last place to the playoffs in 2024.

Smith isn't Jayden Daniels, though, and it will take more for Las Vegas to take a Washington-sized leap. With Smith under center the past three seasons, the Seahawks were an above-average pass attack by yards per attempt each year. He was never seen as more than a borderline top-10 QB, though, leaving questions as to how far Seattle could go with Smith under center.

He had 71 touchdowns and 35 interceptions in those three seasons, a good rate. Smith is an accurate passer, having completed around 70% of his passes in both 2022 and 2024 (though he was down below 65% in 2023). He isn't a deep-ball master, though Smith would put it up for DK Metcalf now and then.

Las Vegas is getting something they lost when they released Derek Carr: competence at quarterback. Smith probably won't play appreciably better than he did in Seattle, but that's a different world compared to what the Raiders had last season.

If Carroll can help bring things together for a team that has been lost for far too long and Smith can stabilize the most important position (which hasn't had a high ceiling since maybe Rich Gannon was quarterback), Vegas could conceivably compete for a playoff spot. They won't be contenders without more high-level moves, but this is a start in the right direction.

Who does Las Vegas still need to add?

Tight end Brock Bowers was a star as a rookie, and receiver Jakobi Meyers is a really good WR2. Vegas had an offensive line just a hair worse than average; they could stand to upgrade, but improvement from young players would seem to put them at least average up front even without a major addition.

Offensively, the biggest needs are a top receiver and a running back. The trade of Davante Adams during the season took away a needed target, but it did gain them a third-round pick (the same compensation sent out for Smith). Finding a top guy (maybe even an old friend in Metcalf) would make this a scary pass-catching group.

Mock drafts have recently been linking the Raiders to Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty at No. 6. I don't like this idea because of the lack of value of drafting a back early, even a top prospect, but it would undoubtedly raise the ceiling of the offense.

Las Vegas averaged the fewest yards per rush attempt among all teams by 0.3 yards; that was the same as the difference between the Rams (second fewest) and 16th-place Seahawks. Alexander Mattison, who had over 60 more rush attempts than anyone else on the team, averaged a paltry 3.2 yards per attempt.

Jeanty is a star prospect. Adding him to Bowers, Meyers, and a WR1 (like Metcalf) would create one of the most talented skill player groups in the league. Smith would still be average (or maybe a little better) as a quarterback, but he would be surrounded by players who could help him succeed.

The defense needs plenty of work, but the Raiders would have one side of the ball figured out.

Where do the Seahawks go next at quarterback?

I wonder if they already have a firm plan or if it's more about the idea of upgrading. Trading Smith for a third-round pick is not a move a team MUST make, so the Seahawks decided they were ready to move on, likely to raise their ceiling.

Given the options available, they're also going to drop their floor, as there's not a sure-thing QB available. The free agent options top out with Sam Darnold or Justin Fields; are either of them better than Smith?

The big move would be trading up for one of the top quarterbacks in the draft. Neither of the likely first rounders, Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, is seen as a sure-fire top prospect, so it's a riskier proposition than it would have been last year if a team were trading up for Drake Maye, for instance.

Moving to No. 1 would take a huge haul: Seattle would be giving up this year's 18th and 50th (and maybe 82nd) picks, next year's first rounder, and either another first- or second-round pick. It might be a little more or less, but that's a good starting point. Tennessee would be dropping 17 spots in the first round and forgoing a blue-chip prospect, but they would recoup phenomenal value and set up the franchise with a chance to add an entire generation of talent.

And the Seahawks would be sending out that same chance at talent. They would need their QB pick to be a star to make the trade worth it, so this might be too much of a move for Seattle. Maybe they watch how the draft unfolds and trade up to lower slot, but they'd be giving up at least next year's first rounder and more to make that happen in a draft without a top-tier quarterback prospect.

The better bet is that Seattle is planning to drop a big deal in Sam Darnold's lap with hope he can build off last year's breakout. A more fun proposition might be a trade for a star: what if they gave those same three first-round picks to San Francisco for Brock Purdy as he approaches a huge raise of about $50 million? It's unlikely, particularly within the division, but Seattle might be thinking big.

Does this mean Metcalf is more or less likely to be traded?

The previous question might help answer this one. If they are planning to trade a lot of draft value to move up for a quarterback, the Seahawks probably won't be keen on giving up a talented receiver. That situation would probably lead to a new contract, especially since the QB will be cheap.

If they are going to throw big money at Darnold, Seattle might accept losing Metcalf with the plan to use that cap space in other areas and maybe spend a high draft pick on a replacement receiver in what's seen as a strong top of the class.

We might find out soon, as free agency and the new league year start next week. Watch what happens with Metcalf as a clue toward what Seattle might do at quarterback (and vice versa). Most clues were pointing toward the veteran receiver ending up on a new team, but maybe this changes those plans, especially if Metcalf thinks he's going to get an upgrade at quarterback.

Does this move the needle for either team?

By this I mean, “Can they contend?” The Raiders began further away, but they have clearly upgraded at the most important position while Seattle is worse right now. While adding Carroll to change the culture of the building seems like a good move, this was a team with a big deficit of talent, and it might take more to make them a relevant team in the championship race.

Seattle's grade is very TBD. There are multiple moves still to come that will answer more about the Seahawks' chances in 2025. They have lowered their floor, but Seattle has taken a big chance at raising their roster to a championship level. Neither team is likely to be a true contender in 2025.