Wild Card Weekend: AFC Targets and Snap Counts

A look at AFC target numbers and snap counts leading into NFL Wild Card Weekend

Whether you're playing playoff fantasy football or trying to take down a DFS tournament, the NFL fantasy season continues on! As we move into Wild Card Weekend, there are no shortage of fantasy options with six games on tap. 

And when we start looking at setting lineups, there is nothing more important than usage. The playoffs are unpredictable enough without at least some type of data, so looking at recent target numbers and snap counts is going to be incredibly important to help inform decisions that might already feel like throwing darts at a board. 

With twelve teams suiting up this weekend, let's take a look at some notable target numbers and snap counts for each AFC matchup (with NFC matchups in a separate article).

Bills vs. Steelers

Buffalo Bills

With "Playoff Lenny" Leonard Fournette seeing 21 percent of the Bills snaps last week, we can likely say goodbye to Latavius Murray in any potential lineups. Fournette could be a nice lottery ticket (though nothing more), but James Cook is still the guy we want in the Bills backfield as he continues to see over 60 percent of their snaps.

Gabe Davis saw a drop to just 23 percent of the Bills snaps last week, while Kahlil Shakir saw more than 75 percent for the second straight week -- and saw six targets compared to Davis' two. I don't think Davis is completely out of the picture, but Shakir is likely the better (and more cost effective for DFS purposes) play.

Dalton Kincaid has seen 15 targets over the past two weeks and is looking like a huge upside play. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are still splitting snaps, but it's worth noting that Harris has seen his snap count rise over the past three weeks while Warren's has dropped slightly. He also carried the ball 26 times last week, so I think we're seeing a (relatively) clear changing of the guard with Harris having the upper hand.

Diontae Johnson has seen both consistent snap counts and targets over the past few weeks while George Pickens has seen the largest snap counts with the largest variance in terms of usage (with nine targets in Week 17 and zero in Week 18). Johnson has the higher floor, while Pickens has the higher upside. Otherwise, Allen Robinson and Calvin Austin are nothing more than lottery tickets.

Pat Freiermuth is more or less splitting snaps with Darnell Washington and hasn't seen more than four targets in a game recently. Buyer beware. 

Chiefs vs. Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs

It's honestly a fool's errand trying to play any Chiefs back beside Isiah Pacheco, but if I had to choose another one, it would be Clyde Edwards-Helaire as Jerick McKinnon has been phased out as of late. That said, CEH has a very low ceiling. 

Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Richie James (in that order) are the three Chiefs to target (no pun intended) while Mecole Hardman could be an interesting punt after seeing 11 targets in a rest-the-starters game last week.

Travis Kelce continues to be Travis Kelce and is essentially WR1 in this offense. 

Miami Dolphins

De'Von Achane has seen increased usage over the past two weeks with Raheem Mostert out and has also seen solid usage target-wise. We'll likely see more of an even split with Mostert likely back this weekend, which makes both a risky play. That said, Achane has more upside while Mostert has the higher floor. 

Cedrick Wilson has seen the majority of the Jaylen Waddle snaps with Waddle out, but Waddle should be back this week. Wilson is an interesting cheap/upside play, but he's incredibly risky too. 

Durham Smythe is the sole Dolphins tight end to pay attention to, but he hasn't seen more than three targets in either of his past two games. 

Browns vs. Texans

Cleveland Browns

Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt are basically in a time-share snaps-wise, with Pierre Strong Jr. factoring into the mix as well. Ford has actually out-targeted Hunt as of late and has more upside (though it's worth noting that Hunt has seen more red zone usage). 

While Amari Cooper is still the alpha, Cedric Tillman has seen his snap count jump up while Elijah Moore's has dropped to essentially be even with Tillman. I still prefer Moore, but Tillman is a sneaky play. David Bell is a wildcard who has seen more looks lately (read: he's a good punt play). 

David Njoku continues to be a stud in all usage and has a ton of upside. 

Houston Texans

Devin Singletary has taken over this backfield and is the only Texans running back I'd think about using this weekeend.

Nico Collins is easily the alpha receiver here (similar to Cooper) with Robert Woods and John Metchie acting as his supporting cast. Noah Brown looks to be healthy again, so he's an interesting punt play if he suits up. That said, Collins is the only one I'd feel good about. 

Dalton Schultz is effectively the WR2 for the Texans as this point and is a solid play if you're looking for a non-Kelce/Njoku/Kincaid option at tight end.

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