Week 5 NFL Trending Waiver Wire Pickups & Projections: Here Comes Tyler Allgeier!
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense, Mike Boone, Tyler Allgeier, and Corey Davis are being added more than anyone off the waiver wire heading into Week 5.
Week 4 is officially in the books after the San Francisco 49ers defeated the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. There were a lot of duds this week from elite players while several unowned players turned heads on Sunday. For example, Mark Andrews caught just two passes for 15 yards. Meanwhile, Corey Davis (owned in just 22% of leagues) hauled in five receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown.
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I also can’t remember a week when so many fantasy football contributors went down with injuries. The biggest news of the week is Javonte Williams’s season-ending knee injury. What will Denver’s offense look like in the wake of Williams’ absence? At first, it looked like Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone would split carries but things just got even more interesting after the Broncos signed Latavius Murray off the New Orleans Saints’ practice squad. Another running back suffered a serious injury in Atlanta’s Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson is headed to Injured Reserve which makes both Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley particularly interesting morving forward as C-Patt cannot return until Week 9. There was of course the Tua news which revealed a path for Teddy Bridgewater to start for the Miami Dolphins.
It seems that every single season, this is the time when a few players emerge as league-winning contributors. As we gear up for Week 5 of the fantasy football season, it is time to make those pivotal waiver wire claims and FAAB bids. Now that Week 4 is in the books, it’s time to prepare for Week 5 with FantasySP’s unique Predictive Analytics. Keep reading here to access our Predictive Analytics or log into your account, and utilize the Fantasy Assistant. From there, you can see the predictive adds, drops, trades, and FAAB.
Predictive Analytics in a nutshell is a game-changer for fantasy players. No one else in the industry offers these types of insights. You will now be able to analyze the most important fantasy metrics of the current week BEFORE waivers are processed.
Find out the Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) of each player, as well as how much of your FAAB budget it would take to get “your guy” in the average league. You will now have unique insights into which players fantasy owners are giving up on and which players fantasy owners are fighting for in the current week.
Looking At Week 5 Fantasy Football Predictive Adds:
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Jacksonville Jaguars DEF/ST
It’s hard to believe that the Jaguars’ defense is the top waiver wire add of the week but no player is being targeted on the waiver wire more than the Jaguars. Jacksonville has defended fairly well, allowing just 16.75 PPG. They have also forced a ton of turnovers (seven interceptions and two fumble recoveries) and have even scored a touchdown. Now, they get a juicy matchup against a Houston Texans offense that has struggled. Houston averages a less than pedestrian 18.3 PPG and they are still winless heading into Week 5. Additionally, the Texans have a very weak offensive line unit which will benefit a ferocious Jacksonville defense that has tallied seven sacks thus far this season. While I understand why fantasy owners are flocking to the waiver wire to add the Jaguars, there is no guarantee that this defense continues to perform at an elite level. And since defenses are perhaps the least important position in fantasy football, I would use my waiver claim elsewhere. That said, if you participate in FAAB leagues and you need a defense to stream in Week 5, throwing about 5% of your budget on the Jags is a worthwhile investment.
RB Mike Boone, Denver Broncos
Boone was on everyone’s radar after it was revealed that starting running back Javonte Williams suffered a season-ending knee injury. Boone was expected to split carries with Melvin Gordon, however, Denver’s front office had other plans and signed Latavius Murray off the New Orleans Saints’ practice squad. Now, we could be looking at a three-man backfield in Denver. Nobody knows what this backfield will look like with Gordon, Boone, and Murray but with Gordon in the doghouse after fumbling four times within the first four weeks of the season, Denver may give Boone an opportunity in Week 5, especially as Murray still gets used to the offense. Gordon should still see the most touches of anyone in this backfield but Boone is probably the best pass-catching running back who is active on that roster. Boone is worth a speculative add but I’m not nearly as bullish on him as others. A few people in the industry think that Boone can take over this backfield but that is far from the truth. This situation is way too messy and I’m fading everyone in that backfield.
RB Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons
After the Cordarrelle Patterson injury, this rookie might be my favorite pickup of the week. Allgeier rushed for a career-high 84 yards on just 10 carries in Week 4 while also contributing one reception for an additional 20 receiving yards. This was the first time ever that the rookie surpassed 100 total yards from scrimmage but it certainly won’t be the last.
https://twitter.com/NFLRookieWatxh/status/1576998998639923200
With Patterson on Injured Reserve, Allgeier will serve as the RB1 but don’t forget about Caleb Huntley. Huntley earned 10 carries in Week 4 which he turned into 56 yards and a touchdown. Although I love Allgeier as a player, game script isn’t often going to be in the Atlanta Falcons’ favor for their running backs. Atlanta is usually chasing points at the end of games, which means Marcus Mariota needs to whip it downfield. So there is a lot to like about Allgeier’s situation but fantasy owners need to temper their expectations. He’s not going to become a top-10 running back. That’s simply a pipe dream.
WR Corey Davis, New York Jets
Davis has a nice showing in Zach Wilson’s return in Week 4. The two reestablished their chemistry and linked up five times for 74 yards and a touchdown. Although the veteran has now been surpassed on the depth chart by Garett Willson and Elijah Moore, Davis outpaced both of them in targets with seven looks. Davis's seven targets were good for a 19 percent target share. Wilson and Moore are clearly the wide receivers that the New York Jets want to build around but so far, it appears that the Jets’ offense can support three viable fantasy options. Davis hasn’t had any monster outings but he’s quietly performed as a WR3 through the first four weeks of the season. Davis is the WR26 at this point of the season after accumulating 15 catches for 261 yards and two touchdowns. With bye weeks beginning and the injury bug going around the league, Davis makes sense as one of the top waiver wire pickups of the week. That said, I have a strong feeling that Moore and Wilson will start to eat even more into Davis’ playing time as the season progresses. But Davis can probably serve as a flex option until Wilson establishes more of a connection with the younger wideouts.
[career="Corey Davis"]
QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Geno is not getting the respect he deserves. We suggested him as a waiver wire pickup last week and he delivered with another strong outing against the Detroit Lions. Smith tallied 320 passing yards and and two touchdowns with no interceptions. Smith also added 49 yards on the ground and another trip to the end zone using his legs. This is the second consecutive week that Smith has torched opposing defenses for 320+ yards and two touchdowns. Smith seems to favor his tight ends in the red zone as his two touchdowns were thrown to Noah Fant and Will Dissly. But his top two receivers did the majority of the work in the passing game. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combined for 240 receiving yards. Considering the weapons Smith has around him and Rashaad Penny’s breakout performance yesterday, Smith is a very intriguing quarterback on the waiver wire. That being said, fantasy owners should temper their expectations as Smith’s two huge outings came against putrid defenses. He will have a much tougher task in Week 5 when the Seahawks travel to New Orleans.
[lastten="Geno Smith"]
WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Rookie wide receiver George Pickens had his breakout game for the Steelers in Week 4. Pittsburgh’s second-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft caught six passes for 102 scoreless yards (17.0 AVG). One of those catches was an absolutely insane one-handed grab that was reminiscent of Odell Beckham Jr.’s signature one-handed touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys years ago. But I digress…Through the first three weeks of the season, Pickens combined for five catches and 67 yards. The Steelers have a young receiving corps with Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool at the forefront. However, Johnson had a very quiet game in Week 4 after combining for 21 catches and 196 receiving yards through the first three weeks of the regular season. Likewise, Claypool was targeted just twice on Sunday, but did not haul in a single catch. After Pickens’ Week 4 performance, he is the team’s receiver with the second-most receiving yards (167) behind Johnson (207). Claypool only has 79 yards heading into Week 5 after failing to make a single catch on Sunday. It is starting to look like Pickens and not Claypool will be the WR2 in Pittsburgh now that Mitch Trubisky has been replaced by Kenny Pickett. Pickett seemed zoned in on Pickens for much of the second half. Johnson should continue to see big yardage while Pickens’ breakout game should solidify his role as one of the team’s best pass-catchers. Pickens is worth stashing on your bench to see if he can become a consistent producer of fantasy points. After all, there is a reason Pittsburgh drafted this kid in the second round of the draft. Fantasy owners are making the right decision by targeting Pickens on the wire.
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QB Zach Wilson, New York Jets
After Geno Smith, Wilson is the quarterbacks fantasy owners are targeting the most on the waiver wire heading into Week 5. Perhaps that is because Wilson and the Jets have a matchup looming with a Miami Dolphins defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
In Wilson’s debut this season in Week 4, he led the Jets to a come-from-behind victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, the young quarterback struggled with accuracy. He only completed 50% of his pass attempts and didn’t seem to have any chemistry with his receiver corps. While he wasn’t very efficient and did throw two interceptions. Wilson still produced 252 passing yards, 15 rushing yards, and one passing touchdown. I know, those are not numbers to write home about and it’s hard to envision starting Wilson without biting all your finger nails off. But the Steelers have a strong defensive unit and Wilson has a very favorable matchup in Week 5. He’s worth a speculative add especially now that he has a true supporting cast in Breece Hall and Michael Carter in the backfield, Tyler Conklin at tight end, and Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and Corey Davis at wide receiver. Wilson has never had weapons of this caliber so hopefully he breaks out against the Dolphins in Week 5.
QB Teddy Bridgewater, Miami Dolphins
Another quarterback who is being added at a high rate is Teddy B. Bridgewater came into the game in Week 4 for the injured Tua Tagolovia and completed 56% of his passes for 193 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Bridgewater has one of the best wide receiver tandems in the league at his disposal in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and in Week 5, he gets a New York Jets secondary that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
[career="Teddy Bridgewater"]
Bridgewater has performed admirably in the past against Gang Green. He’s 2-0 in his career against the franchise but has never faced them as a member of the Dolphins. Back in 2014, Bridgewater led the Minnesota Vikings to a 30-24 victory over New York. He completed nearly 70% of his pass attempts for 309 yards, two touchdowns, and an interceptions. Last year with the Denver Broncos, Teddy completed 19-of-25 pass attempts for 235 yards in a 26-0 blowout. The Dolphins should defeat the Jets fairly easily this week and you have to like Bridgewater’s chances of putting up significant numbers against that secondary.
RB Caleb Huntley, Atlanta Falcons
As I mentioned above, Cordarrelle Patterson is on the IR so Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley will need to step it up in his absence. Huntley had only logged one rushing attempt for three yards prior to Week 4. He broke out against Cleveland for 56 rushing yards on 10 carries and a pivotal touchdown. Allgeier seems like he will see more work than Huntley but Huntley will serve as the change-of-pace back and will have value certain weeks depending on the matchup. And if Allgeier goes down, Huntley would be a must-start based on volume alone. Perhaps you had never heard of Caleb Huntley until this past weekend. Well, now is the time to try to add him to your roster. He’s not a sexy name but he has upside.
And that’s a wrap. Thanks for checking out our Week 5 Predictive Adds! Head back next week to see who fantasy owners are flocking towards ahead of Week 6!
