Outlook Sonny Gray
Two-Start Week for Boston's Consistent Righty Offers High Fantasy Upside Despite Mixed Matchups
Sonny Gray has been solid over his last 30 days, posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP across five starts, with an even sharper 2.77 ERA over his last 14 days. The veteran right-hander is locked in as a mid-rotation staple for the fifth-place Red Sox (31-44), who enter the week looking to snap a one-game slide. After recovering from an early-season hamstring strain, Gray is fully healthy and pitching deep into games.
Looking under the hood, Gray's current 3.16 ERA on the year is outperforming our projection of 3.75, though his 1.20 WHIP is right in line with his career baselines. While his strikeout rate is slightly down at 7.24 K/9, his excellent control and low walk rates suggest this success is sustainable. Expect some minor ERA regression, but he remains a highly reliable ratio stabilizer.
Fantasy managers get a double dose of Gray this week as he is scheduled for two starts. His first matchup is on Tuesday at Colorado against Sean Sullivan, who has struggled with a 10.29 ERA, followed by a Sunday home start against the first-place Yankees and Carlos Rodon. Despite the Coors Field risk and a tough New York lineup, he is a must-activate weekly Start.
Updated 1 day ago
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Outlook Stephen Kolek
Stephen Kolek looks to rebound against division rivals after a disastrous outing
Kolek's strong run took a massive hit over the last seven days, where he was hit hard for nine runs over just 1.2 innings, inflating his 14-day ERA to 6.77. Despite the blowup, he remains locked in as a back-end starter for the fifth-place Royals (32-46) who are currently dealing with a heavily depleted starting rotation.
Before this rough patch, the right-hander showed promise with a 4.20 ERA over his last 30 days, which aligns closely with our rest-of-season projected 4.28 ERA. However, his mediocre 6.05 K/9 rate over 50.6 innings this year suggests he lacks the swing-and-miss stuff to consistently bail himself out of trouble when base runners accumulate.
Kolek has one projected start this week, coming on June 26 on the road against the White Sox. While Chicago represents a favorable matchup for a potential bounce-back game, his recent volatility and dangerous 1.88 WHIP over his last two weeks make him a massive risk. Verdict: Sit.
Updated 1 day ago
