Outlook Trevor Rogers
Trevor Rogers locks in as a must-start option after finding his rhythm in June.
Rogers has been absolutely sensational lately, posting a sparkling 2.47 ERA and a microscopic 0.93 WHIP over his last three starts spanning 18.2 innings. He has firmly locked in as the staff anchor for the fourth-place Baltimore Orioles (37-42), a role made even more crucial given the team's extensive injury list that currently features several key starting pitchers.
While his overall 2026 season stats still carry a bloated 5.51 ERA due to early struggles, his recent turnaround aligns much closer to our rest-of-season projection of a 3.69 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Rogers' restored fastball velocity and improved mechanics suggest this hot streak is no fluke, especially considering his elite 1.84 ERA from the 2025 season.
Rogers is scheduled for a single start this week, taking the mound at home on June 26th against the Nationals. He will match up against Andrew Alvarez, a low-rostered starter with a 3.34 ERA, making this a highly favorable matchup for the surging lefty. Lock him into your lineups as a high-upside starting option this week. Verdict: Start.
Updated 14 hrs ago
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Outlook Zebby Matthews
Two-start week offers volume, but severe ratio risks remain for Zebby Matthews.
Zebby Matthews has struggled over his last 30 days, posting a 6.28 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over five starts, though he bounced back with a strong seven-inning quality start in his last outing. The third-place Twins (38-41) are riding a two-game winning streak but are currently decimated by rotation injuries, with Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober sidelined. This has solidified Matthews' active role as a key back-end starter in Minnesota's rotation.
Despite the recent inflated ratios, our models project Matthews for a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 120.0 innings rest of season, representing a noticeable improvement over his career 5.68 ERA from 2025. However, major red flags persist; he has historically surrendered too many home runs, and his walk rate has ticked up compared to his minor league days. While he has the control to limit damage, his profile suggests he remains a volatile asset.
Matthews is lined up as a two-start pitcher this week, with both games at home. His first matchup comes against the Dodgers and Eric Lauer (5.37 ERA), followed by a weekend date with the Rockies and Ryan Feltner (5.05 ERA). While the two-start volume is tempting, our weekly model projects a mediocre 5.70 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 12.0 innings, making him best utilized as a risky Two-Start Stream.
Updated 14 hrs ago
