Fantasy Football Week 16 Quarterback Start/Sit: Aaron Rodgers, Shedeur Sanders, and More
Three quarterbacks to start and three to sit in Week 16 of the NFL season.
Late in the season, more players are going to miss games for minor injuries or just because their team is out of the playoff race. The Kansas City Chiefs are a good example: on top of Patrick Mahomes suffering a torn ACL, they were knocked out of the postseason hunt on Sunday.
Veterans like Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and more are facing games that don't matter for the first time in close to a decade. Those guys play long seasons when going to the Super Bowl every year, so it would make sense to shut them down early with the season essentially over.
When guys start missing games, we will get surprise fantasy stars who have one-week performances that cement them in our memories (especially if they beat you). That's the sneaky side of late-season waivers; it's most often lesser-known names thrust into the spotlight.
Let's look at three quarterbacks to start and three to sit in Week 16 of the NFL season. There won't be any obvious names below, like Josh Allen. Instead, we have six guys who are worthy fantasy starters some weeks but better left on the bench other times. Most stats are from NFL.com.
Use FantasySP's weekly projections to find the players expected to perform best and help make your toughest lineup decisions!
Start
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
After ranking toward the top of the scoring leaderboard in the early part of the season, Herbert has been on a bit of a cold streak lately, at least from a fantasy perspective. He hasn't finished as a top-10 fantasy QB since Week 9, and in the five games since then, Herbert averaged 160.2 passing yards per game with five touchdowns and four interceptions.
He missed about one-quarter of the snaps in one of those games, but Herbert struggled to find either volume or efficiency for most of that stretch. He also faced tougher pass defenses in that time; Herbert's five opponents were the Steelers, Jaguars, Raiders, Chiefs, and Eagles. It's not a murderer's row, but each of those teams is average or better with yards per pass attempt allowed or fantasy points given up to quarterbacks (or both).
Things take a major turn here, as the Cowboys are one of the worst pass defenses in football. They have allowed the fourth-most yards per pass attempt and the most fantasy points per game to QBs, making it about as friendly as could be for opponents. The last time they held a passer under 250 yards was five weeks ago, and it was Geno Smith and the hapless Raiders (who had 238).
Herbert has a phenomenal fantasy outlook here. Things have been rough, but the schedule gives a brief reprieve before a brutal finish against the Texans and Broncos. Start Herbert this week, then you might be able to drop him unless you're in a deep league.
Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
There are six teams that rank in the top seven in most yards per pass attempt allowed and most fantasy points given up to quarterbacks: Dallas, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Washington, Tennessee, and Detroit. Each of those names seems to fit except for one.
The Lions have a strong run defense, but they have been gashed by the pass, giving up the sixth-most yards per pass attempt and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to QBs. Over the past four weeks, Detroit gave up more than 360 passing yards three times. In the fourth game, they allowed four touchdown passes to Jordan Love.
Rodgers isn't much of a fantasy player anymore, ranking as QB18. He missed one game but has only been in the top 10 in three of the other 13 weeks, finishing outside the top 20 seven times. This is strictly about the matchup.
Rodgers is a limited player; we can't expect anything close to his past work. With the matchup heavily in his favor, though, he is a solid fantasy streamer. His final two games are against the Browns and Ravens, so this is probably the last time Rodgers will have positive fantasy value.
Gardner Minshew, Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans
This spot was for Tua Tagovailoa, but he was benched in favor of Quinn Ewers, so let's switch it up to Minshew. With Patrick Mahomes out, this team loses a lot of its floor and ceiling, and that extends to fantasy football as well. There won't be as many good performances the final few weeks.
The matchup is great here, though, as the Titans have allowed the third-most yards per pass attempt and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Tennessee is one of the worst teams in football, and we can target them heavily over the next three games in fantasy.
Minshew has a bit of a low floor, but if you lost Mahomes and are in desperation mode, you could do a lot worse than the matchup against the Titans this week. Minshew is only a one-week fill-in, though, as the schedule is tougher the rest of the way.
Sit
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
I was ready to make fun of the Jaguars all season. I mean, we started with this. Jacksonville also traded their 2026 first-round pick to the Browns, so I envisioned them handing a top-10 pick to Cleveland while they floundered.
Instead, the Jags lead their division at 10-4 and are nearly a lock for the postseason with games against the Colts and Titans to finish the year. Lawrence ranks as fantasy QB7 coming off a huge game against the Jets: 330 passing yards on 10.3 per attempt, five touchdowns, no interceptions, 51 rushing yards, and a rushing score, easily giving him the QB1 spot for the week.
The problem is that the matchup does a full 180 here, as instead of facing the hapless Jets, Lawrence must face the Broncos, who have one of the best defenses in the league. Denver has given up the sixth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Lawrence is helping his fantasy score with 21.6 rushing yards per game and six TDs on the ground, but the Broncos haven't allowed that production either, giving up just 15 yards per game with two scores. Marcus Mariota ran for 55 yards in an overtime game in Week 13, but only three other guys reached 20 rushing yards.
Both Jacksonville and their quarterback have been pleasant surprises this season, but this isn't the week to try them in fantasy. Against a brutal pass defense, Lawrence is better left on the bench in the fantasy playoffs.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Prescott is QB5 and only a few points behind Drake Maye for third place among fantasy quarterbacks. It has been a season filled with volume for the Dallas passer, as he has thrown 522 pass attempts, 18 more than anyone else. Prescott is on pace for 634 attempts, which would shatter his career high.
That's also why he has 200 more passing yards than anyone else, and Prescott's 26 touchdown passes rank third in the league. Fantasy football smiles upon those who touch the ball often, and Prescott has also shown decent efficiency, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt.
He has a tough matchup this week, as the Chargers have allowed the third-fewest yards per pass attempt and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Teams are averaging just over 190 passing yards per game against LA with 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions; only six of 14 teams reached 200 yards.
Some owners will start Prescott because of how good he has been in fantasy, and there's a chance he racks up volume and has a respectable day. The matchup is heavily against him, though, so it's worth checking your options if you have the Dallas QB.
Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
It might not seem like Sanders needs to be listed here, but his name recognition gives him some fantasy buzz, and he has made a few plays with both his arm and his legs that could show up on highlight reels and give the impression that he is worth consideration.
Sanders is a low-level fantasy option, only worth considering in the most desperate of situations. He's a fifth-round rookie surrounded by (mostly) underwhelming talent; the chances of success would be low for anybody. His limited success has mostly been driven by big plays, several of which came on screen passes behind the line of scrimmage.
The matchup is also rough here, as the Bills have allowed the ninth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The only QBs who have reached 200 passing yards against Buffalo are Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow…and Michael Penix Jr.
This is about as bad an outlook as any quarterback has this week. On top of the bad matchup, Sanders just isn't set up for success as an inexperienced player, and he is likely to have a rough game in this one.
