Can Recently Traded Quarterbacks Find Future Success? Justin Fields, Kenny Pickett, Trey Lance and More

With a number of young passers traded before finishing their rookie contracts, we look at the players involved and what their futures may hold.

There has been a recent run of quarterbacks traded while still on their rookie contract. Some of these players were first rounders who failed to impress, and others were mid-round picks who got an extended look but couldn’t hold onto their starting jobs.

With below-market contracts, these players can fill backup quarterback jobs in a cost-effective manner while holding upside as players with pedigree/on-field experience.

Let’s run through the recent young QBs moved and try to determine career paths they might take from here. We’ll start in the 2023 offseason, when a Super Bowl contender made their intentions clear with a low-impact trade.

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers to Dallas Cowboys

Injuries and circumstance led to the end of Lance’s tenure in San Francisco before he ever got a chance. He suffered a major leg injury in his second game as a starter in 2022 and was replaced by Jimmy Garoppolo, who eventually gave way to Brock Purdy. 

Before Lance was traded for a fourth-round pick, there was a real conversation about who would start for the 49ers last year. Some felt Lance deserved the chance as a high pick who fell to injury, but San Fran liked what they saw from Purdy and stuck with the former final pick of the draft.

The 49ers are happy with how things turned out, but the third overall pick in 2021 has barely been on the field and likely won’t see much action in 2024 as the backup to Dak Prescott. Lance might have the most upside of anyone on this list, but we won’t know until he gets another shot at a starting job.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots to Jacksonville Jaguars

New England is likely to choose a quarterback third overall in the draft. Jones hasn’t shown enough during the last two seasons to project as anything more than a backup, and rather than keep him as their own second option, the Patriots shipped him to the Jags for a sixth-round pick.

That’s a common theme throughout this list: Many of these guys could have been kept as backups on their own team, but the franchise decided to send them away for little draft compensation to avoid an awkward situation in the locker room.

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers to Philadelphia Eagles

The Steelers looked to upgrade on Pickett after seeing little in two seasons since making him a first-round pick. After the Russell Wilson signing, Pickett was reportedly unhappy, leading the team to dump him to the Eagles.

Pickett will probably be in a backup role for the next two seasons without much opportunity unless Jalen Hurts gets injured. By the time he gets another chance, Pickett will be four years removed from his draft, likely with nothing on film showing him as a competent starter.

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears to Pittsburgh Steelers

Fields was finally moved for a meager return, gaining only a sixth-round pick that can become a fourth in 2025. It’s extremely disappointing for Bears’ fans, but the draft compensation will be lost to history unless Fields blossoms into a star.

Chicago kept Fields instead of using the first overall pick last year, but a second crack at the top QB in the draft was too much to overcome. Circumstance ended Fields’ time with the Bears as much as anything else, but he also failed to show top end passing traits.

Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons to Arizona Cardinals

Sam Howell, Washington Commanders to Seattle Seahawks

These two go together as 2022 mid-round picks who were given the chance to start in 2023 but failed to impress and found themselves pushed out by a big free agent or (presumed) high draft pick.

Again, rather than keeping their young quarterbacks as backup/developmental options, the Falcons and Commanders traded their passers for modest returns. Both will now have to work back toward starting jobs, probably beginning in 2025 at the earliest.

Ridder was kept in the starting role as Atlanta continued building the group around him, but he couldn’t excel surrounded by first-round picks. The team didn’t want to waste years with cheap talent on rookie contracts, so they signed Kirk Cousins in the biggest free agent move of the offseason.

Howell led a Washington team with talent at receiver but not much at any other position. He showed flashes but was below the level of an average starter; Washington securing the second overall pick sealed his fate.

Next Up

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

Wilson was given permission to seek a trade, but nothing has come to fruition yet. If he isn’t traded, it’s likely Wilson will be released. Seeing what more competent quarterbacks were traded for, I can’t imagine a team giving up much more than a late-round pick swap for Wilson.

When he does move on, Wilson will join the scrap heap of former first rounders who were dumped by the team that drafted them. His play hasn’t shown anything even approaching an average level, and Wilson will be fighting to hold on as a backup.

Previous Examples

Expectations are put on players based on where they are drafted, for better and worse; if Purdy was drafted in the first round, he would be lauded as the next great thing rather than questioned after an MVP-level performance.

In the case of these quarterbacks, the first-round picks were supposed to be franchise passers. They have failed to live up to expectations. That doesn’t mean their careers are over, though, as there are many roles to be filled on an NFL roster.

Two young quarterbacks were traded in the recent past and have followed different paths, and they are probably the two most likely outcomes for the quarterbacks listed above (while acknowledging that anything can happen).

Baker Mayfield

Mayfield had some success in Cleveland but was left without a job when the team traded for Deshaun Watson. Time with Carolina and the Rams in 2022 left much to be desired, and Mayfield signed a $5 million contract for a chance to compete for Tampa’s starting spot.

A successful 2023 earned Mayfield a three-year, $100 million contract this offseason, showing a highly drafted player who showed flashes can find a starting role in the right situation. This relates to Jones, as he led the Patriots to the playoffs in his rookie year before falling off a cliff. It seems unlikely, but Jones surely hopes to follow the Mayfield path back to a starting job (and the accompanying money).

Fields also fits as a player displaced by a new QB and sent out of town. Pittsburgh offers the chance to battle for the starting job and earn a new contract.

Sam Darnold

On the other side of the coin is Darnold, who was in Carolina with Mayfield and performed just as poorly. After being picked third overall by the Jets, Darnold found almost no success and was moved to the Panthers for a surprisingly big return (including a second-round pick).

In the time since leaving New York, Darnold has received several chances to play and has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. He spent last year as the backup in San Francisco, a role that seemed to suit him well.

Darnold signed a contract worth up to $10 million with the Vikings this offseason to be a bridge QB and presumably battle with a rookie draft pick. While he could find success and get his own contract like Mayfield, Darnold seems destined for a backup role again; that’s probably his best spot moving forward.

While some guys will have another bounce go their way (like Mayfield), the majority will probably follow the Darnold path of life as a backup.

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