AFC Divisional Round: Target and Snap Count Update
A look at target numbers and snap counts leading into the AFC Divisional Round playoffs
Whether you're playing playoff fantasy football or trying to take down a DFS tournament, the NFL fantasy season continues on! As we move into the Divisional Round, there are no shortage of fantasy options with four games on tap.
And when we start looking at setting lineups, there is nothing more important than usage. The playoffs are unpredictable enough without at least some type of data, so looking at recent target numbers and snap counts is going to be incredibly important to help inform decisions that might already feel like throwing darts at a board. While some teams (ahem...Texans) have a very limited usage tree, there are others who are a bit harder to decipher (ahem... Ravens).
With four teams suiting up this weekend, let's take a look at some notable target numbers and snap counts for each AFC matchup and see if we can find the best plays (you can find the NFC version of this article here).
Texans at Ravens
Houston Texans
Devin Singletary has more or less cut Dameon Pierce out of the equation witih 72 percent of the running back snaps against the Browns (Pierce was at just 13 percent behind Dare Ogunbawale's 17 percent) and also saw the only running back targets (three). He doesn't have massive upside -- especially against a tough Ravens defense -- but Singletary is the only guy to worry about in the Texans backfield.
Similarly, Nico Collins is the target hog with seven last week. Robert Woods, John Metchie, and Xavier Hutchinson figured in with 2-3 targets of their own, and will continue to battle for ancillary targets with Noah Brown now on IR. I think I'd favor Metchie as he saw the largest snap percentage of the three (Hutchinson was second), but we're not talking about massive upside here.
Dalton Schultz is basically the WR2 for the Texans with Brevin Jordan reminding us that he's a decent lottery ticket as he found the end zone with his one target last week.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens backfield is a mess with Keaton Mitchell out for the season. Justice Hill and Gus Edwards have more or less been splitting snaps, though it will be interesting to see if Dalvin Cook figures into the equation. I'm more or less avoiding this situation at all costs as Lamar Jackson will likely see some goal line carries, but I think Hill might be the one with the highest floor due to his potential for passing game usage.
Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr, and Nelson Agholor will all figure into the Ravens' passing attack, which makes it tough to pick one. Bateman, Flowers, and Beckham have seen the most targets over the Ravens' past three games, but this is shaping up to be a headache all around. If I have to pick one, I'm looking at Flowers due to his upside -- with Beckham next up.
With Mark Andrews looking like he's ready to return, Isaiah Likely will see his upside limited. We'll have to wait and see what the reports on Andrews are saying heading into the weekend, but he's set up to be the target monster he was before getting hurt.
Chiefs at Bills
Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco more or less owns the backfield with a 70-30 snap split with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Each saw one target, but Pacheco saw 24 carries to CEH's seven. Pacheco is clearly the only one worth targeting here.
Rashee Rice was the only Chiefs' receiver who caught more than two balls (he caught eight) and was also the only one who saw more than three targets (he saw 12). Justin Watson, Marquez-Valdes Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and Richie James (in that order) were second through fifth in snap counts, so one of them could be a target if you're looking to get unique in DFS. Hardman, of all of them, probably hast the most upside (though it's a lottery ticket).
Travis Kelce remained the Chiefs' main tight end weapon with 10 targets while Noah Gray saw just one target on 47 percent of the Chiefs' offensive snaps (read: lottery ticket?).
Buffalo Bills
The Bills stuck with James Cook for 61 percent of their snaps (with Ty Johnson and Latavius Murray seeing the second and third most, respectively). Cook saw four targets while each of the other two backs saw two apiece. Cook, unsurprisingly, saw most of the carrries as well, so he's clearly the only Bills back to consider.
Stefon Diggs saw nine of the Bills' 13 wide receiver targets while Khalil Shakir saw three, so there wasn't much spreading the ball around going on. Gabe Davis could come back this weekend and join the mix, but this wide receiver room doesn's tretch beyond Diggs and Shakir for fantasy purposes.
Dalton Kincaid has seen at least six targets in each of his last three games and has taken over as the Bills' main tight end. It's worth noting Dawson Knox scored a touchdown on one of his three targets, but his upside is much less limited.
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