NFL Prop Bet Analysis Week 17: Justin Jefferson, Brock Purdy, Pat Freiermuth
Ted takes a look at the best NFL prop bets to target according to FantasySP's tools for Week 17.
If you're out of the running in your fantasy football league but still want to get involved with the NFL's Week 17 action, there's no better way to do it than with some prop bets! Luckily, we have some awesome tools here at FantasySP to help you find the best prop bets each week. Our Prop Bet Finder compares lines across sportsbooks to our projections, highlighting lines that have the biggest percent difference between the two. And our Prop Rankings Tool has historical results for every player and every prop, both how they have performed relative to their lines and how often our projections beat the books. Using those tools, we should be able to find some winners for this week, so let's get started!
Want to make more winning bets? Check out our Player Prop Bet Research Tool, which makes it easy to find the best prop bets every week!
Top NFL Prop Bets Week 17
Justin Jefferson OVER 79.5 Receiving Yards
What better way to start than by backing the NFL's best receiver? The Prop Bet Finder has Jefferson's receiving line of 79.5 yards as the most popular bet for this week. Our projections have Jefferson slated for 97.2 receiving yards, a solid 22% difference from this line. The Prop Bet Rankings Tool also has nothing but good vibes for this prop, as Jefferson has gone over his receiving yards line in five of eight weeks (63%), while our projections have picked the right side of his line six times (75%).
For my part, I love what the tools are cooking here. Jefferson is the best receiver in the league and should be able to tear up a Packers defense that will be without top corner Jaire Alexander. Yes, Jaren Hall getting the start is not ideal, but Jefferson has proven to be truly QB-proof. Especially with T.J. Hockenson on IR and Jordan Addison on the wrong side of questionable, he should get all the volume he can handle and hit this line.
Brock Purdy OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
With a 47% difference between our projected 2.2 passing touchdowns and this 1.5-TD line, Purdy's passing touchdown mark is the one where our projections differ the most from what Vegas has to say. It is worth noting that we'll have to play plenty of juice, as -199 on Caesars is the best odds available, but the juice is worth the squeeze when the projections are that confident.
I personally am also pretty confident about Purdy's chances to toss two touchdowns this week. He has done so in eight of 15 games this season, which doesn't sound that confidence-inspiring ... until you consider that the Commanders allow 2.2 passing touchdowns per game, by far the highest mark of any team. Of the 15 QBs to play against the Commanders this year, all but four have thrown at least two touchdowns. Three of the four players who failed to do so were Mac Jones, Trevor Siemian, and Joshua Dobbs. Purdy's MVP campaign may have taken a huge hit last week, but he certainly doesn't fit in among that terrible trio. The only worry with this pick is that the 49ers simply score all their touchdowns on the ground, which is a possibility. But I'm willing to put my faith in our projections and take this pick.
Pat Freiermuth OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards
Second to Purdy's touchdowns line in percent difference at 41% is the receiving yards line for Pittsburgh's top tight end. Our projections think Vegas is way off here, predicting Freiermuth to rack up 30.4 yards against the Seahawks. And, unlike with the Purdy line, the odds here are much more reasonable at -120. It is worth noting that our Prop Bet Rankings Tool doesn't paint a particularly pretty picture for this pick: Patty Fry has gone under his receiving yards line in eight of 10 games this season. However, it also tells us that his average line this season has been 30.6 yards, while his average result has been 24.3. Both of those numbers look very favorable when compared to his 21.5-yard line for this week. Once we consider that the Seahawks allow the ninth-most yards per game to opposing tight ends at 55.4, this seems even more like a great play.
Tyler Higbee OVER 2.5 Receptions
While sorting by percent difference is a great place to start, you can also find props in plenty of other ways on our tools. By using the filters and sorting the table on our Prop Bet Finder, I was able to look for players our projections have been nailing all season (by sorting by projection accuracy) that they are also feeling confident about for this week (by filtering for a >10% projected difference). Among that group, Higbee jumped out, with our projection of 2.8 receptions 13% above his 2.5 line.
Looking at the Rankings Tool again, we can see that Higbee has hit the over six times and the under seven times on his reception props, essentially 50% either way ... but our projections have been on the right side of the line 85% of the time. Things get even better when we see that his average line has been 3.4, while his average result has been 3.2. It is worth noting that Higbee has been seeing fewer snaps over the last few weeks, but he still has four and three receptions in his last two outings. I'm putting my faith in the projections again on this one, as with an 85% hit rate they are clearly doing something right when it comes to Higbee.
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