Fantasy Football Week 16 Quarterback Who Should I Start? Baker Mayfield, Jaxson Dart, Bo Nix, and More

Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Bucs were supposed to easily win the NFC South. They were four-time reigning champs and share a division with the Saints and Panthers, who were expected to be two of the worst teams in football.

The fourth team, Atlanta, had a little intrigue but seemed below the level of a playoff team, something that played out in reality. Two things didn't go to plan: Tampa Bay hasn't been great, and Carolina has been much better than expected.

Mayfield also hasn't been as good as the past two seasons, leaving him as more of a fringe fantasy starter and lowering the team's ceiling. That has fantasy owners questioning him on a near-weekly basis, as Mayfield shows up on our FantasySP start/sit tool often.

Let's look at Mayfield and three quarterbacks who he has been matched up with most on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.

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Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

Mayfield is averaging 214.2 passing yards per game on 6.7 per attempt and is on pace for 26.7 touchdowns and 8.5 interceptions. Over his first two seasons in Tampa, he averaged 251.3 yards per game with 34.5 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

He's protecting the ball better, but Mayfield is also putting up much less volume, including his running being down just a bit from last year. That all has Mayfield at fantasy QB13, a fine ranking but down from his QB10 and QB4 finishes in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Carolina has allowed the eighth-most yards per pass attempt but the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That's partly a product of lower volume; the Panthers have faced the 12th-fewest pass attempts and just 10 more than the team in eighth place. Carolina also hasn't given up much rushing production to QBs, just 11.7 yards per game with three touchdowns.

This is something of a middling matchup, and combined with Mayfield and the Bucs not looking great, that makes him just a mid-level fantasy player here.

Jaxson Dart, New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings

With a phenomenal matchup against the Commanders last week, I pegged Dart as a possible QB1. He wasn't quite that good, finishing as QB9, but Dart did damage with both his arm (246 yards, two touchdowns) and legs (63 yards), something he has been doing all season. Dart has a good ceiling and floor due to his dual-threat abilities.

The Vikings are close to the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they have given up the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. That is a major function of volume, as Minnesota has faced the fourth-fewest pass attempts, just 10 more than the last-place Saints.

They also don't give up rushing production to QBs, with just 16.4 yards per game and one touchdown all season. Caleb Williams and Justin Herbert both finished with around 60 rushing yards in Weeks 1 and 8, respectively, but only three other guys even reached 20 yards, and they were good runners in Williams, Lamar Jackson, and the Jayden Daniels/Marcus Mariota duo.

Advice: This is a tough one because the matchup against the Vikings isn't great, but Dart has been such a good fantasy player when on the field. I'm going to trust his upside over Mayfield's inconsistency and say to start Jaxson Dart over Baker Mayfield.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos

Lawrence and the Jaguars have been surprisingly effective this season. Lawrence started off playing below-average football even as the team won games early, but he has now looked much better over the past month, coinciding with the addition of wide receiver Jakobi Meyers.

The offensive line also ranks in the top six in both pass block and run block win rate according to ESPN, so there has been a good ecosystem built around the Jacksonville quarterback. On top of getting back close to average overall as a passer, Lawrence has also done well running the ball, racking up 302 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. That had him at QB7 entering Week 16.

This is a tough matchup, as the Broncos have allowed the seventh-fewest yards per pass attempt and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. On top of being good against the pass, Denver has only given up 15.1 rushing yards per game to QBs with two touchdowns.

Advice: Start Baker Mayfield over Trevor Lawrence. He has looked much better recently, but the matchup is against Lawrence here, and Mayfield has a much better outlook.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Opposing Lawrence is Nix, who is leading the team with the best record in football but is seen as a secondary reason for that success behind the defense. It's hard to argue: Denver is close to the middle in points per game scored while ranking third in fewest points allowed.

Specific to Nix, he is on pace to finish with close to the same numbers as last year, losing over 100 rushing yards but otherwise with similar volume. His efficiency hasn't been as good, losing about three percentage points off his completion percentage and 0.2 yards per pass attempt.

The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt but the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. That difference partly comes from volume, as the Jags have faced the third-most pass attempts, and though they are second with 18 interceptions, Jacksonville has also allowed 23 touchdowns, tied for the 12th most.

Advice: This is another tough call, as the Jaguars have given up fantasy production but have played better on defense than those numbers indicate. Nix has been a little below average, but he is still succeeding in fantasy (QB8). I'll give the slight edge to Mayfield because his matchup is a little better; start Baker Mayfield over Bo Nix.