Fantasy Football Week 16 Tight End Start/Sit: Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Brock Bowers, and More

Trey McBride has lapped the field in fantasy performance this season. According to FantasyPros, he has over 33% more standard points than any other tight end and close to 35% more PPR points; no other position has a leader anywhere close to that far ahead.

It wouldn't be a stretch to call McBride the fantasy MVP of this season so far. He has fewer fantasy points than the top guys at QB, RB, and WR, but McBride outpaces the rest of his position to a degree that those other players could only dream of.

Moving to less impactful players, let's look at three tight ends to start and three to sit in Week 16 of the NFL season. We usually don't include any obvious names, like McBride, but there are a few more notable players below because of extenuating circumstances. Most stats are from NFL.com.

Use FantasySP's weekly projections to find the players expected to perform best and help make your toughest lineup decisions!

Start

Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins

Two weeks ago, Gesicki had a huge game out of nowhere against the Bills, catching six passes for 86 yards and a touchdown. It was the only time all season that Gesicki topped 35 yards or scored. He followed it up with one catch for 11 yards last week, so it's best to think of that game as a one-week blip on the radar.

Noah Fant has been a little more productive than Gesicki, but he has also played three more games. Fant suffered an ankle injury on Sunday against Baltimore and is questionable for this game; if he is out, Gesicki gets a major bump.

The matchup is what really makes Gesicki interesting, as the Dolphins have allowed the ninth-most yards per pass attempt and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. The position is averaging nearly 6.5 catches and 70 yards per game with seven receiving touchdowns, and the Steelers even got two rushing touchdowns out of their tight ends on Monday night.

Gesicki is a low-floor player, so there is risk here despite the matchup. Since Miami is so bad against the position, though, Gesicki has a nice ceiling to go with that lower floor, particularly with Joe Burrow back in the lineup. (Fant would also have low-level intrigue if he plays.)

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans

Kelce's spot here is about the belief that he can still be productive even with Patrick Mahomes out of the lineup, at least in the right matchups. Kansas City's ceiling and floor are lower with Gardner Minshew under center; we must shift expectations accordingly.

I wrote recently about Kansas City's fantasy outlook the rest of the season, but the short version is that they have a very good matchup this week before finishing with tougher games, so the top guys, like Kelce and Rashee Rice, are still viable fantasy options in this one. Minshew is a professional quarterback who can run an offense, so the Chiefs should be able to find some success.

The Titans have allowed the third-most yards per pass attempt, and they are on the fringe of the top 10 in most fantasy points given up to tight ends. The position hasn't necessarily dominated against Tennessee, but Kelce is a major part of the offense and will make an impact against a below-average defense.

Things get trickier the next two weeks against the Broncos and Raiders, so Kelce's owners might need a Plan B after Week 16. There's also a lower floor without Mahomes, so risk-averse owners could realistically search for a better option. Kelce has a good outlook this week, though, so he's fine in your lineup here.

Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Prior to the fourth quarter on Monday night, the entire Dolphins' offense was essentially anonymous. They had three points with less than 10 minutes remaining in the game and 89 net yards on seven drives (including a one-play drive before halftime) entering the fourth.

Miami then went on a 65-yard touchdown drive and an 86-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter and gained 36 more on the final drive before the game ended. Waller had six of his seven catches and 58 of 66 yards on those drives, exclusively doing damage in garbage time.

Now, garbage time counts the same in fantasy, but it's not something you can count on. Waller needs to find more consistent production for us to count on him in the fantasy playoffs.

The matchup here might allow for that, as the Bengals have given up the second-most yards per pass attempt and by far the most fantasy points to tight ends. This position has exploded against Cincinnati all season; this might be the best matchup for any position in fantasy.

There's a low floor, but the ceiling is through the roof (does that contradict itself?). Any owner without a starter at tight end would do well to grab Waller. We've seen that he can still put up numbers and get into the end zone, and there's not a better opponent to offer those chances.

Sit

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders @ Houston Texans

I mentioned Bowers and McBride here last week because they both had super tough matchups, but I gave the caveat that you weren't going to bench them, so it was more about the worry that the ceiling could be low. Bowers felt the effects, catching six passes for just 28 yards against the Eagles, but McBride excelled against these Texans: 12 receptions, 134 yards, two touchdowns.

Arizona was down multiple scores in that game for the final 57 minutes; it was essentially all garbage time. The Texans have given up the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to TEs. It's unlikely anyone is going to put up another game like that against Houston.

Bowers is a top tight end at his best, but the Raiders are a dumpster fire. They just lost 31-0 to Philadelphia, and this game could follow the same script, as Houston is fighting for the playoffs and has maybe the best defense in football.

Geno Smith missed Week 15, and Kenny Pickett was completely overmatched. Smith is questionable this week but looks like he will play; even with the starting quarterback, this is likely to be a quiet day for the Las Vegas passing game, though. If Bowers doesn't find the end zone, he will probably put up another low fantasy score, making it reasonable to look at your options before throwing him into your lineup.

Harold Fannin, Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills

There will be a lot of changes in Cleveland before the start of next season, but Fannin is one of the few who has solidified his spot. He leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and Fannin ranks among the top 10 tight ends in both standard and PPR.

The Browns have a low-level offense with a lack of talent at most positions. That caps Fannin's ceiling, as the Browns aren't giving him many touchdown opportunities despite leading the pass-catching group.

The matchup is also a major problem this week, as the Bills have allowed the ninth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the fewest fantasy points per week to tight ends. Only two TEs have reached 50 yards against Buffalo: Kelce and Gesicki. The position is averaging less than three catches and 35 yards while scoring just two touchdowns against the Bills.

Fanning will be a popular fantasy pick in the mid-to-late rounds next year in fantasy drafts, but he has a low ceiling and floor in this one. You can find a much better outlook if you're in the fantasy semifinals.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Ferguson is behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens in targets, but those three each have at least 94 targets and combine for 313 total, about 100 more than every other Cowboy combined. It really is a three-headed monster and then everyone else.

After starting the season hot, Ferguson has slowed down a bit, not scoring a touchdown in the past four games and averaging 3.7 receptions and 33.7 yards per game over his past seven. Those cutoffs are arbitrary, but it shows how Ferguson hasn't had the same impact late in the season, even as he remains in the fantasy top 10.

The Chargers have allowed the third-fewest yards per pass attempt and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Things have been a little nicer lately, as the past three teams have gotten 70 yards from their TEs, but the year-long numbers are much better for the defense.

Ferguson will likely get low-efficiency volume, the way he has all season, but he's unlikely to have a big game here unless he finds the end zone. Some owners will keep him in the lineup because of the numbers he has put up (especially in PPR), but there is major risk of a quiet fantasy week for Ferguson.