Finding the Top Week 5 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Woody Marks, Darren Waller and More

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

This is a relatively boring week of waivers, likely the first of many as we truly settle into the flow of the season. Woody Marks is deservingly the name at the top, but even he is already widely rostered enough to max out at a 55% EWI. After him, we only have four more skill-position players above the 20% mark, and they're not an inspiring bunch. However, they are still worth discussing, so let's get right into it. 

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RB Woody Marks, Houston Texans (55% EWI)

As mentioned, the only reason Marks' EWI isn't higher is that he is already rostered in about half of leagues. Coming off a massive 25.9 half-PPR-point outing in which he led the Texans' backfield in snaps, carries, routes, and targets, the fourth-round rookie is a no-brainer must-add.

With that said, I don't think this is a “drop 100% of your FAAB” situation. The Texans' offense is still terrible, with one of the worst offensive lines in the league. They won't get to play the Titans at home every week, so there's a real chance this was Marks' best game of the season. 

Nick Chubb also isn't (yet) a complete non-factor — he played 40% of Houston's snaps and handled 13 carries to Marks' 17 on Sunday. Until he completely ices Chubb, Marks profiles as more of a flex play than anything else, the lead back in a committee on a bad offense. Still, flex value now with RB2 upside going forward makes him an absolute must-add off the waiver wire. 

TE Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins (35% EWI)

After literally being retired for the 2024 season, Waller returned to the NFL and joined the Dolphins this offseason. The former fantasy stud missed the first three weeks with a hip injury, but he returned with a bang on Monday night, catching two TDs en route to finishing as the TE2 on the week with 16.2 half-PPR points.

Now, we shouldn't overreact to this impressive debut. Waller only had one other catch aside from his two trips to pay dirt, and he finished with just 27 receiving yards. He also did all this on just 10 routes (a 37% participation rate). To be fair, you can either view that last stat as a negative (that's not a viable level of usage) or a positive (just wait and see how many touchdowns he shows once his usage ramps back up). 

Personally, I lean toward seeing this glass as half full. The tight end position is once again a fantasy wasteland, and Waller does have two truly elite seasons on his resume. We also saw last season with Jonnu Smith that this offense is capable of turning a talented pass-catching TE into a fantasy monster. That outcome only gets more likely now that Tyreek Hill is done for the season. 

At the end of the day, Waller is still a 33-year-old TE who hasn't had a healthy season since 2020 and has run just 10 routes so far this season. In a stronger week of waiver options (or even if his big game just happened on Sunday afternoon instead of Monday night), he probably wouldn't have an EWI this high. But he's still worth adding, if only because he comes with real upside at a position where that is often hard to find. 

WR Darius Slayton, New York Giants (23% EWI)

This is a classic case of “star goes down, add his backup.” Malik Nabers is officially done for the season with a torn ACL, leaving Slayton to step up as the Giants' top outside receiver. He does definitely get a massive boost, as Nabers was one of the most target-dominant players in the league prior to his injury. And, in my opinion, he's always been slightly underrated as a solid downfield receiver. 

With that said, it's hard to see Slayton's path to fantasy viability outside of deep leagues. Jaxson Dart only completed 13 passes for 111 yards in his debut on Sunday — this is not going to be a high-volume passing offense.

Meanwhile, Wan'Dale Robinson is going to continue racking up targets from the slot, and Theo Johnson and Cam Skattebo will also be involved. Slayton will have some big games, and he's worth adding in deep formats as a boom/bust flex play. Otherwise, though, he's not a priority add. 

WR Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots (22% EWI)

It's a tale as old as time. A widely drafted fantasy player disappoints for the first few weeks of the season and is dropped in plenty of leagues as a result. Then he explodes for a big week, and managers rush to add them back. Usually, this is a mistake — the big game is just a one-off, the early struggles that led to the initial dropping were more predictive. However, there is some reason to be more optimistic that Diggs may actually be turning a corner.

In Weeks 1-3, Diggs averaged just a 14% target share on a miserable 56% route participation rate in the Patriots' offense. In Week 4, those numbers jumped to an elite 39% and a much more respectable 77%. He was simply used more in every situation, with massively increased route participation rates in both 12 and 11 personnel.

When an increase in production is also accompanied by an increase in usage, it's much more likely to be sustainable. It also helps that we can paint a compelling narrative here: Diggs' usage and efficiency are improving as he shakes off the rust from the ACL injury that ended his 2024 season. While his big Week 4 doesn't erase his struggles in the first three weeks, I do think Diggs deserves to be scooped up in most formats in case he can keep this improvement rolling.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers (20% EWI)

It's tough to know what to make of Gainwell. Obviously, his near-30-point explosion on Sunday was excellent. But it came with Jaylen Warren (knee) sidelined.

The Steelers are on bye in Week 5, so Warren will likely be back the next time Pittsburgh takes the field. The question then becomes if Gainwell's performance was impressive enough to earn him an expanded role even if/when Warren returns.

In deep leagues, I think it's worth taking a chance to find out. Maybe Gainwell earned an expanded role in this run-heavy offense. Maybe Warren's injury ends up being a long-term issue. With third-round rookie Kaleb Johnson looking like a complete non-factor, Gainwell has more than one path to fantasy viability. While this EWI is a bit rich for my blood (there are other, more appealing players with lower numbers), he's still a worthwhile add.