San Francisco 49ers' Super Bowl Player Props: Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and More
A look at the major offensive players on San Francisco and how the season's stats may point toward their production in the biggest game of the year.
It is Super Bowl week! You’ve surely seen plenty of coverage from all angles, but there’s always more to take in with such a big game. Let’s look at a few prop bets for the major playmakers on San Francisco. This won’t include every player or every bet, but I will hit on props that I feel stronger about and/or that are more popular.
The props and respective projections are from our FantasySP Player Prop Tool. Different numbers are available at different books, but the prop tool finds the best number among the included sportsbooks. The numbers are correct as of Wednesday night (Feb. 7).
Brock Purdy, QB
O/U 3.5 Rush Attempts; Projection: 2.5 attempts
During the regular season, Purdy had at least four rush attempts in four games and three or less attempts in 12 others. He had six and five attempts in his two playoff games. The overall numbers point toward the under, but the playoffs tell a different story.
Our projection sees this as a somewhat easy win on the under, but I’m not so sure. For what it’s worth, the Chiefs faced the third-most rush attempts by quarterbacks this season. There is a lot going into that, including which opponents a team plays, but it could also show something within the Chiefs’ defensive scheme that gives QBs more rushing/scrambling lanes.
Given Purdy’s increased rushing in the playoffs and how many attempts the Chiefs faced, I’m inclined to go over here. One other bonus: kneel-downs count as rushing attempts, so if you think the 49ers are going to win, there’s a little more value.
I’m not comfortable making a bet, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Purdy active on the ground again.
O/U 246.5 Passing Yards; Projection: 266.5 yards
I’m not jiving with our projection tool on this one. The Chiefs have been brutal for any passing game to face, and Purdy struggled mightily against the best two pass defenses he faced this season (Cleveland and Baltimore). I wrote a whole article looking at this; short version, Kansas City was successful in eight of nine games against top-12 passing units (by yards per attempt) and shut down the majority of them.
The San Francisco passing game was the best in the league this year. Kansas City was much more successful against great passing teams than Purdy was against great pass defenses. I am sticking with that trend and projecting the 49ers to struggle mightily throwing the ball.
We’ll get to the pass catchers, but Purdy could be limited the same way teams were against the Chiefs all season long. I’m going against our projection and saying Purdy comes in under 246.5 yards, but I don’t want to put money on it.
Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, WR
Aiyuk O/U 60.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards; Projection: 82.4 yards
Samuel O/U 75.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards; Projection: 77.4 yards
These numbers are related to each other, though Aiyuk is unlikely to run much while Samuel will be used both on the ground and through the air. I talked about KC’s presence against the pass, and the receivers will likely feel the impact most among the pass catchers.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Chiefs allowed the fifth-least receptions and fourth-least receiving yards to wide receivers on the season. They were 14th in least receptions and ninth in least yards to tight ends; against running backs, it was 13th in receptions and eighth in yards.
They were good against each position, but Kansas City excelled most in stopping receivers. Given the playmakers at other positions, I wouldn’t be surprised if both wide receivers went under these numbers. I’m down on Aiyuk, seeing the under more likely while our prop tool loves the over; it makes me think twice, but I’m trusting my own research on this one.
Samuel’s story is a little different given the ground game (which we will hit on below). I feel better about Samuel over his number than Aiyuk because of the dual ability to gain yards.
Samuel O/U 2.5 Rush Attempts; Projection: 2.6 attempts
Speaking of Samuel’s rushing, he recorded at least one carry in all 15 regular season games he played this season. He had at least three attempts in seven of those 15 games and had two early carries before leaving injured against Cleveland in Week 6.
The total is right, so can we determine if Samuel is more or less likely to get touches? Opponent doesn’t seem to matter, as all three division opponents saw Samuel split one game over and one game under 2.5 attempts during the season.
Coaches tend to pull out all the stops when the playoffs come, and that’s even more true in the Super Bowl. Two offensive minds like Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid figure to be trading unorthodox plays throughout the day. That seems like a time Samuel would touch the ball in more ways.
Looking at his playoff history, Samuel has topped 2.5 carries more often than he has failed to reach that number. In 2021, he was being used as a running back at times and easily cleared the mark in all three playoff games.
The 2022 playoffs saw Samuel in a similar role to the one he is in now, and he topped 2.5 in each of three games again, with three, four and six rush attempts. This year, he had no runs against Green Bay in the Divisional Round but carried it three times in the Conference Championship against Detroit.
History says that Samuel will get his rushes, and I agree. The Chiefs are a tough, tough pass defense, and San Fran will likely have to get creative and move the ball on the ground and with short passes. It’s easy to envision Samuel carrying the ball multiple times to try to find space.
George Kittle, TE
O/U 3.5 Receptions; Projection: 4.1 receptions
O/U 49.5 Receiving Yards; Projection: 60.8 yards
In the two rough games I referenced above, Kittle had just two targets against Cleveland but 10 against Baltimore. Tight ends are often referred to as the “safety blanket,” a player the quarterback looks to when he’s in trouble. Kittle fits that description but is also explosive with the ball in his hands.
With the Chiefs not as harrowing against tight ends, Kittle may be the one to lead the pass catchers rather than one of the receivers. Getting four receptions seems very doable, so I agree with our projection for him to go over 3.5.
We project him to get an easy win on the yardage over, and I fall on the same side of that line. If he is going to see plenty of action, it just takes one long gain to get most of the yardage he needs. Kittle is one of the best tight ends in the league when running after the catch, and I see him over 50 yards in this one.
Christian McCaffrey, RB
O/U 91.5 Rushing Yards; Projection: 96.1 yards
O/U 33.5 Receiving Yards; Projection: 36.2 yards
O/U 130.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards; Projection: 132.3 yards
This is the guy who gets the most focus, and for good reason. McCaffrey led the league in rushing yards (1,459) and was second in receiving yards among running backs (564). That averages out to 91.2 rushing yards and 35.2 receiving yards per game.
With the over/under numbers right near his averages, the opponent is important. I referenced above that KC was great against the pass but a little more giving to running backs, and McCaffrey is the best receiving back around. He should have some room catching the ball, though linebacker Willie Gay will be active after missing the Conference Championship, helping the middle of the defense.
Kansas City was much less successful against the run. The Chiefs were 24th in yards per rush attempt allowed (4.5). San Francisco was fourth best in the same mark on offense, averaging 4.8 yards per run. It seems likely that the 49ers will have their best success on the ground.
McCaffrey has seen about the same usage in the playoffs under Kyle Shanahan as he has in the regular season. It makes sense that he would lean on his workhorse in a big game, but McCaffrey already touches the ball as much as anyone in the league, and San Fran has plenty of other playmakers.
Each of these marks feel like 50/50 propositions. I don’t feel great betting on any of the three, but I like the rushing+receiving prop best because of McCaffrey’s dual abilities; he could break a 50-yard run or catch at any moment, and getting the full complement of his work seems like the best way to hit the over.
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