Buccaneers, Lions Fantasy Football Start/Sit Decisions: Should You Start Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Jahmyr Gibbs, Rachaad White, David Montgomery and More?

Discussing fantasy football options for the Buccaneers and Lions playoff game on Sunday.

The NFL’s Divisional Round continues with two fun matchups on Sunday.

It’s time to dive into the NFC contest between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions and determine what guys you should be starting in playoff fantasy leagues or DFS. We already discussed the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens game and the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers game and we will cover the final Sunday game too, so be sure to check back for that.

Quarterback Options

This contest features the No. 1 picks from the 2016 and 2018 NFL Drafts. Of course, neither guy is on their original team, but the Baker Mayfield matchup with Jared Goff is a lot more intriguing then many would have predicted at the start of the season.

Mayfield went off for 337 passing yards and three touchdowns in the team’s blowout win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week. He was 22-of-36 passing, but would have had a much higher completion percentage - and yards and touchdown marks - if not for several drops.

Goff was 22-of-27 for 277 yards last week in a win over the Los Angeles Rams. He finished with one touchdown pass and no interceptions.

When the teams met in the regular season, Detroit won 20-6. Goff was 30-of-44 for 353 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. Mayfield was 19-of-37 for 206 yards, no touchdowns and one pick.

Both of these defenses were in the bottom half of the league when it came to slowing opposing quarterbacks. Detroit’s defense allowed 20 fantasy points per week, while Tampa Bay’s defense allowed 18.

Verdict: I’m expecting a fairly low-scoring game, with Detroit prevailing 24-21. I think both quarterbacks will perform quite well and would understand wanting to start either guy because of the matchup. If forced to choose one, I’d take Goff because I expect his team to win and looking at what these quarterbacks did in their last matchup.

Running Back Options

I love the running backs in this game. You have Rachaad White as the workhorse for the Bucs, and the strong 1-2 punch of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs for the Lions.

White finished with 75 total yards on 19 touches in the team’s playoff win last week. This season, White has over 1,500 total yards and nine total touchdowns. If he’s slowed as a ball carrier, he can make a difference as a pass catcher.

Montgomery and Gibbs have split the workload most of the season. Last week, Montgomery went for 68 total yards and a score on 15 touches, while Gibbs had 68 total yards and a score on 12 touches. For the season, Montgomery has 1,200 total yards and 14 touchdowns to over 1,300 yards and 12 scores for Gibbs.

In the regular season matchup, Montgomery finished with 33 yards on seven touches in a game Gibbs didn’t play in. Montgomery was injured in that contest in the first half, which allowed Craig Reynolds to serve as the team’s top fantasy back that day. 

White was limited to 38 yards on 10 touches in the first meeting.

These defenses are the top two in the league in slowing opposing backs. The Lions’ defense allowed just 15 fantasy points per week, while the Bucs’ defense only allowed 17.

Verdict: For as much as I like Gibbs, Montgomery and White, I wouldn’t feel super confident in starting any of them this week. I think this game will be about which team can throw the ball better, because these defenses are going to stifle the run games. Because Gibbs and White can make a difference as pass catchers, I still think they can be productive fantasy assets. So while I would try to avoid all three of these guys, here’s how I’d rank them: White, Gibbs, Montgomery.

Wide Receiver Options

Each team is dealing with an injury to a receiver, but I’m not sure it’s going to change too much. Kalif Raymond hadn’t practiced through Thursday after missing last week, so even if he can play, it probably won’t be too many snaps. Chris Godwin is on the injury report for the Bucs, but played a week ago and should be good to go this week.

Last week, Godwin tallied 45 yards and a touchdown on four catches and five targets. Mike Evans, who led the team most of the season, had just 48 yards on three grabs and seven targets, while also dropping a long pass that could have resulted in a touchdown.

David Moore surprisingly had 66 yards and a score on two catches and three targets. Trey Palmer only had two targets and one catch, but it went for a 56-yard touchdown.

While Evans and Godwin were outperformed by their teammates, the top two wideouts are still the guys you’d want to trust this week.

With no Raymond out there last week, Amon-Ra St. Brown dominated for the Lions. He finished with 110 yards on seven catches and nine targets. St. Brown was easily the team’s top pass catcher at wide receiver this season.

Josh Reynolds went for 80 yards on five grabs and seven targets, while Jameson Williams had 19 yards on two catches and targets.

In the first meeting between the teams, St. Brown went off for 124 yards and a touchdown on 12 catches and 15 targets. Williams had 53 yards and a score on two grabs and three targets, while Reynolds had 50 yards on three catches and targets. Raymond recorded 23 yards on three grabs and targets.

Godwin led the Bucs with 77 yards on six catches and seven targets. Evans had 49 yards on four catches and seven targets. Palmer was limited to one catch on two targets, going for 15 yards.

These defenses struggled to slow opposing wide receivers. Detroit’s defense allowed a whopping 41 fantasy points per game, while Tampa Bay surrendered 36 points.

Verdict: Even though the matchup is more favorable for the Bucs’ wideouts, I want St. Brown the most from this matchup - he should be starting this week in playoff leagues, and if you can make it work with him in your DFS lineup, that’d be preferred. I’m OK with starting Evans and Godwin, in that order, but wouldn’t feel super confident about it and would try to fill my lineup with wideouts from other games instead. I’d avoid all the other wideouts, but rank them in this order: Reynolds, Palmer, Williams, Moore and Raymond (even if he’s playing).

Tight End Options

This is all of a sudden a pretty intriguing tight end matchup after Cade Otton’s big game for the Bucs last week. Detroit, of course, has Sam LaPorta, who battled through an injury last week.

Otton had 89 yards on eight catches and 11 targets last week. If he could have avoided a couple drops, he would have topped 100 yards and at least scored once.

LaPorta made three grabs on as many targets for 14 yards, but scored to help Detroit prevail last week. He played 80% of the offensive snaps, and with no setbacks, he should be a full go this week.

In the first meeting between the teams, neither tight end did much. LaPorta tallied just 36 yards on four catches and 11 targets. Otton went for 15 yards on one catch and two targets.

Both defenses are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to slowing opposing TEs. Tampa Bay’s defense allows 14 fantasy points per week, while Detroit allows 12.

Verdict: I was skeptical with LaPorta last week, but he bailed out fantasy owners with his score. I think he’s heavily involved this week and love the idea of starting him. He’s got the chance to finish as TE1 this week. Otton will be a popular starting option after his showing last week, but I’d actually try to avoid him, expecting a fall back to his normal production.

Other Thoughts

As all the stats show, both defenses are elite against the run and struggle a bit to slow the pass. In what I envision as a low-scoring game, I am fine starting either of these defenses. I’d take Detroit if I needed to make a choice between the two.

Tampa Bay may have the slight advantage at kicker.

Mike Badgley kicks for Detroit and is 4-of-4 on his field goals and 13-of-15 on extra points. Chase McLaughlin does the kicking for Tampa Bay, making 29-of-31 of his field goals and all 33 of his extra points.

I don't expect many kicking opportunities in this contest, and would try to avoid either option, but prefer McLaughlin if I needed to choose one.

#start-sit-decision #lions #buccaneers #jared-goff #baker-mayfield #jahmyr-gibbs #rachaad-white #david-montgomery