Flipping the Script: How Kirk Cousins’ Injury Affects Jordan Addison, Alexander Mattison, and Vikings’ Offense
The whole state of Minnesota turned upside down as Kirk Cousins limped off the field in Week 8. The team’s playoff aspirations took a tremendous hit, and the fan base was showing sorrow rather than jubilee after winning at Lambeau. My friends in North Dakota who I hate because they always talk about the Vikings didn’t even send annoying messages about how they’re a contender; things got bad.
The Vikings have thrown the ball more often than any team in the league. They were third in 2022 and tied for 11th in 2021: this is a trend. This team wants to get the ball in the air to their talented pass catchers.
I’m going to steal a bit of what I said in another piece about how trades affected other players in fantasy: “a big part of the Minnesota pass catchers excelling is the fact that the Vikings throw more times per game than any other team. A good quarterback allowed the team to live and die by the pass, but a different style of QB will probably necessitate a change in offensive philosophy.”
Joshua Dobbs has shown some highs, but his best work is done when he is using his legs. He ran for 47 yards and/or scored a touchdown on the ground in six of eight games this season and was a top-20 fantasy QB those weeks. He was outside the top 20 the other two games and combined for negative-two rushing yards.
Rookie fifth-rounder Jaren Hall will start until Dobbs gets up to speed, but he’s likely to be severely overmatched. One of the best assets he showed in college was his ability to run, and the gameplan is likely to revolve around the ground game.
Justin Jefferson, WR
Jefferson is still a must-start player when he returns from injury. He’s been too good to sit until he shows us something different.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
Hockenson is at the same level as Jefferson right now in terms of being a no-doubt starter at his position. He's tied for the most targets among tight ends with Travis Kelce and trails only Kelce in receptions and yards. Hockenson’s three touchdowns are only one less than second place among tight ends (Mark Andrews leads the position with six).
Unless he has a few consecutive bad weeks without Cousins, don’t worry about Hockenson.
Jordan Addison, WR
This is where things start getting interesting. Addison had 14 catches for 205 yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks, quickly becoming accustomed to his role as the top receiver. He had worked his way into must-start status, but that's no longer true heading into Week 9.
Atlanta has a very good defense and won’t let the Vikings ease into their new situation, especially as they fight for first place in the NFC South. (They’re even benching Desmond Ridder for Taylor Heinicke, so you know they mean business; or something). The Falcons have given up the eighth-least passing yards per game this season, a paltry 194.6.
The Falcons are better-than-average in terms of fantasy points and receiving yards given up to receivers. They have allowed 10 WR touchdowns, third-most in the league, but they have otherwise been very tough on the passing game (and touchdown numbers are inconsistent). This isn’t a good matchup for Vikings receivers on top of the drop-off in quarterback play.
K.J. Osborn, WR
The drop in passing volume will probably affect Osborn most (and Addison once Jefferson returns). Osborn has been operating as a middling third option, finishing six of his first seven games with between 31 and 49 receiving yards. His biggest performance came last week, when he hauled in eight of 10 targets for 99 yards.
Minnesota’s 39.4 passing attempts per game are likely to settle in closer to run-first teams like Arizona, Atlanta, and Chicago, who all average between 30.5 and 33.5 pass attempts per game. Losing six to nine opportunities per game is huge for a receiver, especially one who doesn’t lead the offense.
Osborn is the third option in the passing game right now at best, and he is unlikely to see many games like Week 8; those 30- and 40-yard games are going to appear more frequently.
Brandon Powell, WR
Powell is an interesting case: he’s a journeyman in his sixth season and has never caught more than 24 passes in a season, but Minnesota has found ways to get him the ball. He had 12 catches for 127 yards over Weeks 5-7 and has run the ball once each game since Week 5.
I’m not recommending you run out and grab Powell, but a shifty gadget player might be more valuable in a run-first offense. Powell probably won’t make a difference in fantasy, but it’s worth keeping in the back of your mind.
Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers, RB
Let’s finish with these two together, as their outlooks are tied to each other. Mattison is the nominal starter, but he has been fairly terrible this season. He is 20th in rushing yards while 13th in attempts, and his 3.7 yards per carry are tied for 31st among qualified rushers.
Mattison is 25th in standard scoring and 26th in PPR among backs, right on the fringe of a fantasy starter. Akers, a Week 3 trade addition from the Rams, has outscored Mattison in fantasy the last two weeks, though his effectiveness and efficiency are no better.
So, who will be the lead back moving forward? If I’m right in thinking that Minnesota is going to run the ball a lot more, at least one (and maybe both) of these backs will be fantasy relevant. They won’t get as much space without the downfield presence of Cousins, but the increase in volume will make up for that. It’s reasonable to expect more checkdowns to backs, also.
Mattison has already shown that he can be a fringe starter with lower volume. Akers was expected to be the bell cow for Los Angeles, but he was put on ice after one inefficient week then traded. Akers has experience as a starter, but he hasn’t topped 800 rushing yards in a season or averaged more than 4.3 yards per carry.
Akers out-touched Mattison 12-10 in Week 7, but Mattison led the charge 17-10 in Week 8. I see this as a true timeshare moving forward: an injury would clear things up, but these two will otherwise probably split touches with coaches playing the hot hand. That would limit both to flex duty, maybe with RB2 upside in the right matchups.
Both Mattison and Akers are worth a spot on your roster, but it’s hard to tell what will happen; this is mostly uncharted territory, especially as the team will have to plan for half a season with a new quarterback rather than a spot start from a backup. I’m keeping both players on the bench until someone shows something, especially in Week 9.
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