Miami Thrice - Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane, Jeff Wilson: Which Dolphins' RB can you Trust in Fantasy?
Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane are second and third, respectively, in standard fantasy scoring, according to ESPN and Fantasy Pros (each of which I will reference a lot). It has been an embarrassment of running riches for coach Mike McDaniel, and this is without injured Jeff Wilson, who is eligible to come off of IR for Week 5, though there’s been no official word on his status yet.
So, what to do? Running back committees are great for teams who can cycle in players with different skill sets, but they puncture the best plans set by fantasy owners. Let's look at the Dolphins in 2022 and how touches were split, recent duos able to achieve duel fantasy relevance, and what to expect the rest of the season in Miami's backfield.
Dolhpins' 2022 Running Back Breakdown
Three backs handled most of the work for the Dolphins last season; here's how their touches were split:
| Player | Games Played | Carries | Carries/Game | Receptions | Receptions/Game | Touches/Game |
| Raheem Mostert | 16 | 181 | 11.3 | 31 | 1.9 | 13.2 |
| Jeff Wilson | 8 | 84 | 10.5 | 12 | 1.5 | 12 |
| Chase Edmonds | 8 | 42 | 5.25 | 10 | 1.25 | 6.5 |
Mostert played nearly every game and had the most touches, though he only had one more touch per game than Wilson. Edmonds was less of a factor, getting about half as much action as the other two when active.
Edmonds played Weeks 1-8 before missing the rest of the season with injury, and Wilson returned to play in Week 9, so at least two of these players were active in all but two games.
In their 17 games last season, Miami’s backfield split touches pretty evenly in six games. Someone dominated the touches the other 11 weeks. Only Wilson was active in Week 12 and only Mostert in Week 15, and they dominated the carries in those games.
That leaves us 15 games with two healthy backs, and nine saw a player act as the bell cow. Achane didn’t play Week 1 in 2023 and had just two touches Week 2, and Mostert dominated the touches as others chipped in.
Week 3’s annihilation of Denver saw the first timeshare of the season, as Mostert started and Achane played more as the game got further out of hand. Achane had 22 touches to Mostert’s 20. Week 4 was more of the same, 11 to 10 in favor of Achane.
Can the Running Backs Co-Exist?
Miami’s pair had a big game together in Week 3 while the team put up 70 points on Denver, but Achane barely played over Weeks 1 and 2, and Mostert had seven carries for nine yards and a lost fumble in Week 4 (though three catches for 36 yards helped).
The data isn’t perfect, but it’s factual to say one of these backs has been terrible in fantasy 75% of the time. If that’s the case, you must choose which player you think will excel (and fail) more often and make moves accordingly.
Over the last four seasons, at least one pair of teammate running backs have finished in the top 25 in standard scoring:
- 2022 Dallas Cowboys: Tony Pollard 8th/Ezekiel Elliott 18th
- 2021 Denver Broncos: Melvin Gordon 17th/Javonte Williams 18th; Green Bay Packers: Aaron Jones 13th/AJ Dillon 21st
- 2020 Cleveland Browns: Nick Chubb 9th/Kareem Hunt 10th
- 2019 Los Angeles Chargers: Austin Ekeler 7th/Melvin Gordon 25th
This list may be missing a pair or two that fit the criteria, but it shows that teammates can both be weekly fantasy starters on the same team. Will that be Mostert and Achane this year? They're off to a good start, but there are two other teams close to the previous feat with a realistic chance of finishing the season in that group:
- Atlanta Falcons - Bijan Robinson 10th/Tyler Allgeier 25th: This duo seemed to have big things in their future, but Allgeier hasn't hit five standard fantasy points since Week 1. It seems like he is more likely to move down the list unless Robinson suffers an injury.
- Detroit Lions - David Montgomery 6th/Jahmyr Gibbs 32nd: Montgomery is showing that the Detroit running back factory turning middling backs into fantasy stars works for everyone, not just Jamaal Williams. He is a legit weekly starter. Gibbs has had an uneven start to his career but has reached 50 total yards each week. He is stuck as the second option, but Gibbs should get more chances as the season progresses.
- Miami Dolphins - Raheem Mostert 2nd/De'von Achane 3rd: This group seems most likely to both be in the top 25 because of the big start they have. If we were saying top 25 over the rest of the season, I'd probably pick Detroit's duo, but Mostert and Achane will both get carries in a great running game.
Dolphins Running Back Fantasy Outlook
The best bet based on history is that Mostert will get more touches, and Achane will have a role with less volume. I don’t trust that assumption, though. Achane was the top-scoring fantasy running back in Week 3 and Mostert second. Achane was fourth in Week 4 while Mostert was close to 50th.
Achane was Miami's second draft pick this season, going in the third round even though the Dolphins had re-signed two veteran backs. I think that means they want Achane on the field, and that lowers Mostert’s value from what we thought it was as early as Week 1. I'm treating both Mostert and Achane as RB2/flex players moving forward; that seems weird for how they've produced, but let me explain.
Mostert and Achane both touched the ball at least 20 times in the Week 3 blowout. Their touches were cut in half Week 4. A back touched the ball 20 times in a game only once last season (Mostert in Week 7). Mostert didn't hit 20 touches in Week 1 or 2 when he was dominating the workload. Each back will likely be closer to 10-15 touches each game at most, and that will include single-touch games.
The Dolphins threw close to twice as often as they ran the ball in Weeks 1 and 4. The attempts were even in Week 2, and they ran 43 times to 28 passes in the disection of Denver. Miami ran the ball only 66.8% as often as they threw in 2022; even with the big disparity in Week 3, they have run just 81.1% as often as throwing this year. This team likes to air it out.
On top of splitting carries, the attempts will be lacking. Both backs will have the chance to do damage in a great offense and score touchdowns, but it might be hard to know who you can trust each week. It might depend on who gets the goal line carry or who hits the big play, and that's hard to predict in a true split.
Wilson could complicate things further if the coaches want to get him into the rotation right away, but I can't see them rearranging too much after the start this offense has had. It's likely Wilson enters as a bit player and is slowly integrated until someone suffers an injury.
The Verdict
Both of these players are valuable to have on your roster right now, and there is no problem with keeping either of them throughout the season. An injury usually dictates who ends up having the best season, and that is likely to be the case here. If both players stay healthy, they will likely keep splitting work, dropping their value. That, again, is why I am considering them as RB2/flex players instead of true RB1s.
If you have one or both players on your roster and want to see if you can take advantage of their hot starts, try finding a trade with someone valuing them as top-5 backs. Getting a player like Jalen Hurts, Travis Kelce (injury and semi-slow start), or A.J. Brown would be reasonable in a swap like that (maybe with a few other players involved, but the basis would be a Miami running back for one of those players). Some owners will balk at that request, and it's better to keep your running backs in that case unless you have a true glut or reason you want to move on.
Conversely, if you're trading for one of these players, don't give up more than you would for a second running back. You can target a better back with more likelihood of consistent production in a trade if you have to give up a lot for Mostert and/or Achane.
All of this makes it sound like I'm way down on these two players, but that's not the case. I liked Mostert as a flex coming into the year, and he's shown out through the first month. Achane has only played two games and is a top-five scorer: that's insane. Both of these RBs are worth having on your roster. I am looking at history and thinking it may be uneven moving forward, though, and see a chance to sell high on both backs.
History says Mostert will get most of the touches while Achane changes the pace. I can't overlook Achane's production, though, and I see this as a true split. Wilson figures to come in as the third back when he returns, but he's worth adding to the end of your roster if you're in a deep league and super short at running back. Two backs on the same team can both finish in the top 20, so these guys aren't doomed, but value them properly.
#dolphins #raheem-mostert #jeff-wilson #devon-achane
