Fantasy Football Draft Bounce Back Busts: Justin Herbert, Jonathan Taylor & Deebo Samuel
There were plenty of busts last year who did not live up to their ADP in 2022. These guys were viewed as top fantasy stars and let a lot of owners down. However, will these talented players bounce back in 2023? We will take a look at the top bust at each of the top three positions.
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Quarterback
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert was drafted as if he was going to ascend to the next level of fantasy superstardom in 2022. He ended up finishing as the QB11, and it was due to underwhelming performance more than an injury that cost him two games. Because on a fantasy points-per-game basis, he actually finished as the QB17. His biggest issues were a lack of touchdowns, underperformance in the fourth quarter, miserable bust games, and he still struggles against complex defenses. He played three games where he had no TDs and at least one interception and in two of those games, he also failed to hit 240 yards. Even more concerning, two of those games took place in the fantasy playoffs. He also threw twice as many interceptions in the fourth quarter than in any other quarter. These are unacceptable statistics and shortcomings from a guy who is viewed by many as a potential generational quarterback. Many of the concerns people had about him coming out of college continue to plague him despite him piling up passing yards.
Will He Bounce Back?
He is who he is. While we do expect his overall numbers to be better this season and for him to finish closer to the QB5 than QB11, he is still going to give you terrible floor games against complex defenses and be mistake-prone in big moments. Many fantasy owners can live with that if he gives the massive upside games. Hopefully, this year when he does struggle it won't be in the playoffs.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Taylor was the consensus top pick in fantasy last season and ended up falling flat on his face. Injuries and poor play stalled what was supposed to be a monster season. Not only did Taylor take a step back, but the entire Colts' offense struggled to get going. The RB1 in fantasy drafts finished as the RB29 by the end of the year. He's another one that on top of having a subpar season absolutely buried you in the playoffs getting hurt immediately in Week 1 of the playoffs giving you zero points and never getting back on the field. His final stat line was 861 rushing yards, 143 receiving yards, and four total TDs in 11 games.
Will He Bounce Back?
Taylor is too talented not to bounce back, and we expect the offense to be better as a whole or at least force defenses to focus on someone other than JT. The offensive line was inexplicably bad last season but did seem to turn it around late in the season. They still have a ton of talent on that line and should bounce back. Gardner Minshew should also bring a different dynamic to the table than the corpse of Matt Ryan did last season before inevitably giving way to Anthony Richardson. We don't know if Richardson will be able to complete a ton of passes, but we do know he will draw plenty of attention on the ground.
Wide Receiver
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Samuel is a massively talented football player and last year was no exception. However, he is being graded on a curve of what he did in 2021 and that was unsustainable. We got hit with the perfect storm which led to him being the teams best running back and wide receiver. 2021 was also the only time in his career that he didn't miss any time due to injury. After missing four games last season he finished as the WR32. IN 2021, he finished with 1,770 yards from scrimmage and 14 TDs. In 2022, he totaled just 864 yards from scrimmage and five TDs. His usage rate also took a further hit when Christian McCaffrey joined the team and he will be there to start the season in 2023. His current ADP is the WR16 which is more realistic than his WR7 ADP from 2022.
Will He Bounce Back?
Yes and no. He will be better than he was in 2022 even with CMC in the mix. There is no reason he can't hit 1,000 yards and double-digit TDs. However, he's never going to do what he did in 2021 again. The team was forced to use him in that role and ideally, you don't want to use a wideout like that no matter how talented they may be. Especially in that system where they like to spread the ball around and have a lot of guys touch the ball. We view him as a high-upside WR2 for this season.
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