Super Bowl 56: Top Player Prop Bets For The Big Game!
After a successful season of converting over 60% of our bets, we began the postseason with a bang, nailing 80% of our picks through the Divisional Round. We witnessed an epic week of football two Sundays ago as the Bengals defeated the Chiefs and Matthew Stafford led the Los Angeles Rams past the San Francisco 49ers.
From the beginning of the postseason, I thought the Rams would represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. I would be lying if I said I expected Joe Burrow to march Cincinnati past the Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bengals are for real.
The Cincinnati Bengals will face the Los Angeles Rams in the 2022 Super Bowl on Sunday, Feb. 13. There are more prop bets available and more money wagered on this game than any event in the year. Bettors can gamble on things like the coin toss and how long the national anthem lasts but I don’t advise gambling on something that is 100% luck-based. For bettors who are more interested in the actual matchup and are familiar with each team’s tendencies on offense, there is tons of value to be found on Super Bowl props.
For the second year in a row, the Super Bowl will be hosted by one of the team’s participants. Super Bowl 56 kicks off at 6:30 p.m. EST at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. As of the time of publication, sportsbooks are listing the Rams as favorites ranging between 4 and 4.5 points.
Last week was our first losing week since Week 7 of the regular season when it comes to props. Now it’s time to get back on track.
Please Note: All prop odds are from 11:30 AM on Tuesday, February 8. If you decide to place a wager, be sure to check for line and odds changes.
Super Bowl 56 Top Player Props
Parlay:
Matthew Stafford Over 279.5 Passing Yards @ Caesars (-125)
Matthew Stafford Over 24.5 Completions @ Caesars (+100)
After years of being trapped with a Detroit franchise that was never truly built to be a contender, Stafford was traded to the Rams in a blockbuster move this past offseason. The Rams were incredibly close to a Super Bowl with Jared Goff but the upgrade to Stafford has clearly paid dividends as the franchise has reached its second Super Bowl in the last four years. Los Angeles wouldn’t be here without Stafford.
In his last two playoff games against the Buccaneers and the 49ers, Stafford threw for 366 yards and 337 yards respectively. In the regular season, he surpassed this yardage line 10 times in 17 games. In the postseason, he has crushed this line twice but only threw for 202 yards in a fairly easy victory over the Cardinals when he wasn’t asked to do too much on offense.
With Cooper Kupp almost guaranteed to get at least 100 yards, Stafford just needs to connect with Odell Beckham Jr., with who he’s established a great rapport with, Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, Kendall Blanton, and the half backs.
Stafford has completed 59 passes (31 and 28) in his last two games, easily hitting the over on his completion props. The Bengals play the type of defense that tries to limit big plays. That possesses me to believe that Stafford will take the easy dump-offs and short slants across the middle. But don’t rule out some big plays to Kupp. Just because Cincinnati will gameplan to stop Kupp does not mean they will be successful. After all, Cincy allowed the seventh-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. He’s the best wide receiver in the league now and leads the NFL and YAC (Yards After Catch).
Although I expect the Rams to get out to an early lead, the Bengals will keep the game in reach as they have all postseason. Cincinnati has allowed just 19 second-half points in its three postseason games. Los Angeles will not be able to just run the clock out and abandon the pass if they get a lead. Stafford will be asked to put the team on his shoulder. And if the Rams find themselves in a deficit, Stafford will let it fly. I think he will clear his passing props with ease. Parlaying Stafford’s completions and yardage props could net you some serious cash. So long as the Rams throw the ball as much as I am anticipating, he has a great chance of hitting this parlay.
Odell Beckham Over 60.5 Receiving Yards @ PointsBet (-125)
Odell Beckham Over 5.5 Receptions @ Caesars (+120)
Beckham has been demonized by the media and critics ever since he left the New York Giants. However, after a midseason trade from the Browns following Robert Woods’ season-ending injury (torn ACL) in November, OBJ has established himself as a pivotal piece in the Rams offense. He is Stafford’s second option and has improved over his time with Los Angeles.
Since joining the Rams, OBJ has turned back the clock and has shown flashes of his elite skills that he demonstrated as a member of the Giants. Although he has only surpassed 60 receiving yards four times since joining Los Angeles, it is important to note that two of those games were in the playoffs with everything on the line. He has combined for 15 receptions on 19 targets and 182 yards over his last two outings. He even had his first 100-yard game of the season against the 49ers in the Conference Championship.
Cincinnati has also struggled against top receivers as of late and has allowed at least five receptions to each of the top two weapons of their respective AFC opponents on their Super Bowl run. During the regular season, they allowed the third-most completions per game. With Cooper Kupp lining up on the other side and the Bengals potentially double and triple covering him, OBJ should see plenty of one-on-one looks against a Bengals secondary that cannot compete with his ballhawk skills. I expect Beckham to have a monster game as he attempts to help his team lift the Lombardi Trophy. I’m projecting seven receptions for 85 yards and a score.
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Parlay:
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns @ Caesars (-150)
Parlay: Burrow Over 24.5 Completions @ Caesars (-105)
All eyes are on the Heisman Trophy winner out of LSU who returned from an ACL injury his rookie season to lead Cincinnati on its Cinderella run. There were concerns about him even being healthy enough to suit up at the beginning of the season but the second-year pro threw for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns during the regular season, leading the NFL with a league-high 70.4 percent completion rate.
Burrow has one of the most dynamic tandems at the wide receiver position in all of football. Ja’Marr Chase has emerged as perhaps the best up-and-coming pass-catcher in the NFL. Tee Higgins is dominant and Tyler Boyd serves as a solid slot receiver. With elite talent at his disposal in the passing game, Burrow should have no trouble finding the end zone twice. In 19 games through the regular season and NFL playoffs, Burrow has thrown multiple touchdowns passes in 13 of the 19 games he has played (he was rested in Week 18). And in his last five games, he’s hit the mark four times.
As four-point underdogs, the Bengals may be playing from behind, which means more passing opportunities for the young gunslinger. This kid is capable of putting up monster numbers. Don’t forget his two-week stretch late in the season over Week 16 and Week 17 when he combined for just shy of 1,000 passing yards and threw eight touchdown passes over that two-game span.
Los Angeles has a strong secondary with Jalen Ramsey lurking as a shutdown cornerback but they did allow the ninth-most passing yards and fourth-most completions per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. Burrow should be able to move the chains with the Bengals’ quick-passing game attack. Some think this could be a defensive battle but I’m expecting offensive fireworks. Burrow should clear his props and could be this year’s Super Bowl MVP.
Cam Akers Under 85.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards @ PointsBet (-130)
No offense to Akers, Sony Michel, Joe Mixon, or Samaje Perine but the quarterbacks and wide receivers on both teams are the true superstars featured in Super Bowl 56. With Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham, Sean McVay will find ways to get his best playmakers the ball. Akers will surely be involved, but he does split time with Michel and has surpassed 83 total yards in one of his four outings since returning from his long absence. Even with 24 carries and three receptions, Akers managed just 68 total yards against the Buccaneers in the Divisional Round.
Following his inefficient outing, Akers only saw 13 carries and one target against San Francisco, which he turned into 50 yards from scrimmage.
Although the Buccaneers and 49ers are two of the best defenses in the NFL, Cincinnati allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards per season to opposing running backs. After seeing just one carry against the Bucs when Akers was the workhorse, Michel saw an increased role against the Niners. The former Patriot was given 10 carries and was targeted twice. Michel only managed 26 rushing yards but McVay may be leaning towards a timeshare in the backfield. Not to mention, the Rams’ best running back all season long, Darrell Henderson, could return for the big game.
If that happens, Akers’ chances of producing a big stat-line take a big hit. I’m riding with the Under on this one.
Player To Score A Touchdown: Ja’Marr Chase @ PointsBet (+110)
At positive odds, there is no way I’m not jumping on the Chase train to score a touchdown in the biggest game of the year. Chase set the rookie franchise record for yards in a game late in the season and scored the third-most touchdowns in the NFL this season. In his first three postseason appearances, he has either crossed the 100-yard mark or found the end zone. With the entire season on the line, Zac Taylor will find unique ways to get his superstar the ball. Heck, he could find the endzone on a trick play or a running play out of the backfield.
The one hurdle that stands in Chase’s way is Jalen Ramsey. If Ramsey shadows Chase all day, he might be held in check a bit more, though he’ll still have plenty of opportunities. Those opportunities may just be more well covered. However, I’m not so sure the Rams will let Ramsey shadow Chase, as Tee Higgins is no slouch himself lining up out wide. Chase’s score in the red zone against the Kansas City Chiefs was encouraging to see as well. Typically, the electric rookie finds the end zone after catching a deep ball and making a few defenders miss on his way to the pylon. With C.J. Uzomah out, Chase could be relied on more deep into the Rams’ territory.
We know that the pressure won’t get to him, as we have seen him have three huge postseason performances and led the LSU Tigers to a 2020 National Championship after hauling in nine receptions for 221 yards and two touchdowns against Clemson.
Considering his unmatchable chemistry with Burrow, his former college teammate, along with Chase’s reliability in big games, his significant target share (nine per game in the playoffs), and his nose for the end zone, I am locking in my wager right now.
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