2024 MLB Division Predictions | How Fantasy Baseball Production Can Vary Based on Quality of Teams
Revealing my record projections for the 2024 MLB season and then discussing how fantasy baseball is tied into those records.
The MLB season is nearly here! For at least a few days, fans of all teams can have hopes and aspirations of a big season.
Today, I wanted to reveal my MLB predictions, determining how each division race will play out, and then what teams will make the postseason. After that’s done, I’ll briefly discuss how the overall success of a team can help or hurt certain fantasy players.
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AL East Prediction
I expect this to be one of the best division races in the MLB.
I’ve seen the New York Yankees as the favorite to win the division on a number of record projection sites. I think the Yankees will be in the hunt for the division crown, but I like the Baltimore Orioles to repeat as the champs.
Baltimore has a really underrated lineup, headlined by Adley Rutschman, and youngsters like Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday should only give the lineup a boost. The Orioles have a number of top-100 prospects that are hitters, so they have the depth to withstand some injuries.
The big question mark with Baltimore will be the pitching staff. The addition of Corbin Burnes should help the rotation, but they’ll likely need Kyle Bradish and John Means to play well once they return from injuries to ultimately come away with a division title. Not having Felix Bautista to close out wins definitely hurts, but Craig Kimbrel and Yennier Cano should be able to fill the void together.
I like the Yankees to earn a playoff spot and finish second in the division. The uncertain long-term status of Gerrit Cole is concerning, but New York has never been afraid to go all in, and I think they’ll make things work in the end (even if Cole isn’t elite this season).
The health of Aaron Judge concerns me with the lineup, but there’s a ton of bounceback candidates there, and if just a few of them bounce back, this team is going to be much better than in 2023.
I see the Toronto Blue Jays in third in the division and also getting a playoff spot. Toronto has one of the better rotations in the game, and its lineup is underrated. I like the addition of Justin Turner to be the team’s designated hitter and see the team doing just enough to grab the final playoff spot.
That leaves the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox on the outside of things looking in. I thought Tampa Bay overachieved last season, and looking at their roster, I just don’t think they are more talented than Baltimore, New York or Toronto (that could change with injuries, of course). Boston has some nice pieces on its roster, but again, the talent is just lacking compared to their AL East foes.
AL Central Prediction
The AL Central was the worst division in the league a season ago and could be trending that direction again this season.
The Minnesota Twins won the division in 2023, but I like the Cleveland Guardians to win it in 2024.
Jose Ramirez is the guy that makes the Cleveland bats go, and there’s some other underrated pieces around him. The team’s rotation is also pretty solid, and I like Shane Bieber to return to his elite self, so I think the Guardians come away with the division title.
Minnesota slips back to second place, but misses the playoffs by a couple wins. I like Pablo Lopez at the top of the rotation, but the team is lacking a ton of other consistent leaders, so I think the Twins will play .500 ball, mostly preying on their weaker division opponents.
I’ll say the Detroit Tigers edge the Kansas City Royals for third in the division, with both teams being five or so games below .500. Both have some young talent in place and are in the rise, but I think pitching holds each team back.
That leaves the Chicago White Sox in last place. The rotation is a major issue for Chicago, and their lineup is pretty underwhelming too, so I see them as one of the worst teams in the league and selling by the trade deadline.
AL West Prediction
The West is top heavy, with the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers battling for the title, and the Seattle Mariners also in the mix.
I like Texas to take the division. I love their lineup and think they’ll piece a pitching unit together to win the division by a couple games. The title chances could swing depending how youngsters Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford perform, so keep an eye on them.
Houston is relying on a more veteran-laden team, and concerns with its rotation scare me off picking them. They still make the playoffs in my book.
Seattle will take the third spot in the division, and likely miss the final wild card spot by only a game or two. I love the Mariners’ rotation, but think their lineup will hold them back.
The Los Angeles Angels will finish fourth in the division, while the Oakland Athletics take last. Not many players on either team stand out at the beginning of the season, and I expect them to be sellers at the deadline.
NL East Prediction
The Atlanta Braves are the team to beat in the NL East, and I don’t think they’ll have a problem taking the division again in 2024. The lineup is stacked and the rotation looks better on paper than it did a season ago. If there’s an area of weakness, I expect Atlanta to make a big splash as they try to take advantage of their title window.
I believe the Philadelphia Phillies will finish second again and make the postseason. The rotation is strong, and the lineup is really good if everyone can stay healthy.
I like the New York Mets and Miami Marlins to finish with a similar amount of wins, but to both miss the playoffs. Each team has some solid pieces in place, but shaky rotations will eventually be their downfalls.
That leaves the Washington Nationals in fifth place. The lineup is really intriguing, but the rotation is severely lacking.
NL Central Prediction
I see the NL Central only getting one team into the postseason. At the start of the year, I could make the argument for any of the five teams winning the division, but I think they’ll all be .500 or so teams.
I’m going out on a limb and taking the St. Louis Cardinals to win the Central, which would mean they go from worst to first in a season. The division has some good lineups, but pitching is mediocre across the board. St. Louis has some veteran arms to turn to, and some talented prospects serving as depth.
I see the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates all finishing within a couple games of each other, but all missing the postseason. I just don’t believe any of these team’s current pitching staffs can carry a team to the postseason, and while the lineups keep them around .500, these four teams will all fall just short of a postseason spot.
NL West Prediction
I have three NL playoff spots to hand out yet, and there’s four teams in the NL West that I could see earning those.
I like the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the division again. The lineup is absolutely stacked, and they will carry a battered pitching staff to the title.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will finish second. This is probably the most talented all-around team in the division, but a slightly weaker-hitting lineup will force them to settle for second.
I like the San Francisco Giants to finish third and get the final playoff spot. The addition of Blake Snell is a huge boost to the pitching staff, and adding Matt Chapman certainly fills out the team’s lineup a bit better. I wouldn’t want to face this team come playoff time.
The San Diego Padres will ultimately fall just short of the postseason after placing fourth in the division. The difference between them and the Giants is the starting rotation, and unless this lineup overachieves, I think they fall a game short of the playoffs.
That leaves the Colorado Rockies in last place. I expect them to be better than a lot of other people do, but ultimately, a lacking rotation and injury-prone lineup end up selling by the deadline.
Fantasy Implications
Obviously, the teams that I have winning division titles have more talent on them - that’s why I picked who I did. The more talent you have in a lineup/rotation, the more likely it is to have other lesser-known players be impactful fantasy assets.
Take the Dodgers, for example. That lineup is loaded at the top with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Shohei Ohtani. That improves the fantasy production for the likes of Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernandez, James Outman, Jason Heyward and Gavin Lux. It will also boost the fantasy outlooks for the team’s starting pitchers, as they have a decent chance of winning every time they make a start.
Teams like the Athletics lack many big-time players, so while a player like Brent Rooker could be a streamable starter on the Dodgers, he’s not nearly as good of an option with Oakland.
Fantasy owners should make draft choices and/or start/sit decisions with that in mind. I’d much rather play a hitter lower in the Dodgers’ lineup than a cleanup hitter on one of the worst lineups in the league.
Over the course of the season, the FantasySP team will produce plenty of content that highlights exactly what I’m talking about here, so be sure to check back early and often!
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